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Crikey
Crikey
National
Julia Bergin

Donald Trump has been indicted, again. How will this affect his presidential bid?

Dressed in his Wednesday best, former US president Donald Trump went two for two (indictments for months) today in Miami to front a fresh round of criminal charges, this time for hiding and hoarding top-secret documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

Pleading “not guilty” to 37 counts of illegally retaining classified content and obstructing all government efforts to retrieve them, his appearance before a Federal Court was fleeting. The judge granted Trump leave to go as he pleased — no bail requirements and no domestic or international restrictions for the private jet. First stop was a Cuban restaurant where Trump allegedly ordered no food.

Trump was also exempt from business-as-usual legal proceedings — no fingerprints, mugshot or audio rendition of his Miranda rights. His lawyer put this down to Trump being in a “very unique position”, that being he’s not a flight risk given “he is the leading candidate of the GOP [Republican Party] at the moment”, she told reporters outside the court.

Michael Cohen, Trump’s one-time lawyer and fixer, told CNN two months back when the former president was indicted for hush money payments that a mug shot is a point of terror for Trump: “This is his biggest fear, that he will be mug-shotted, that he will have an F [for felon] next to his name. This is not what Trump imagined for himself.” In the absence of a genuine mugshot (at both indictments), a fabricated AI-generated rendition of Trump did the rounds on social media.

To honour the first US president — past or present — to be hit with a federal criminal indictment, Crikey is rolling out the clarifier.

What are the charges?

Trump is facing a maximum jail term of 20 years if found guilty of stockpiling (between the ballroom and bathroom) 102 documents with classified markings in his Florida home and thwarting a federal investigation into the matter.

In total, he’s up for 37 felony charges — 31 counts of wilful retention of national security records and six counts of engaging in a conspiracy with an aide to obstruct the FBI’s inquiry. It’s a maximum 10-year sentence for each count of wilful retention, a 20-year maximum for obstruction charges, and a five-year maximum for false statements.

The top-secret content was discovered by FBI agents at Trump’s private dwelling in August, but the charges — which include violations of the Espionage Act, obstruction of justice and conspiracy — were not made public until last week.

Is indictment two worse than indictment one?

It was only two months ago that Trump was indicted by a grand jury for a $130,000 hush money payout to adult film star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election.

Although the payment was not in and of itself considered illegal, the cover-up that ensued included 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and breaches of election law — all in all, a low-level felony. If convicted, Trump would face a maximum sentence of four years, though prison time would not be mandatory. 

No such privileges would be awarded to the former president if he is convicted of keeping and concealing the boxes of classified documents in one of two Mar-a-Lago ballrooms (formally titled the “White and Gold Ballroom”), a bathroom and shower in the Lake Room, a storage room, an office space, and his bedroom.

What was in the boxes?

The boxes were a treasure trove of defence and weapons intel for both the US and its allies, details of US nuclear programs, a laundry list of pressure points for the US and allies, and retaliatory plans in case of a foreign attack. 

The classified documents were filed alongside Trump’s collectables from his time in office. Personal memorabilia included newspapers, press clippings, letters, notes, cards and photographs.

The photographs of the boxes in the bathroom (and other Mar-a-Lago rooms) featured as evidence in the 49-page federal indictment document, but Republican politicians opted to overlook the visual in favour of defending Trump, even declaring the bathroom to be a fit and proper location for top-secret US intelligence. 

Speaker Kevin McCarthy claimed a bathroom was far safer than a garage because a “bathroom door locks”.

What about Biden’s boxes?

US President Joe Biden is also under investigation by the Justice Department for his handling of classified documents.

Biden is yet to be interviewed by special counsel Robert Hur. After a search of Biden’s two homes in Wilmington and Rehoboth Beach, his Washington office at the Penn Biden Center, and the University of Delaware (where Biden houses his Senate box collection), the FBI found classified documents at his office and Wilmington home.

Trump has been keen to home in on Biden’s 1850 boxes at the University of Delaware, drawing attention to their existence and (not-so) secret whereabouts. These papers date from 1973 to 2009 and document the president’s Senate career. Unlike presidential documents that are the property of the US public the moment the president leaves his post, senators can do as they please with records from their time in office (trash or treasure).

It’s also common practice (so much so that there’s an online list) for senators to pass on their papers to research institutions. 

The whereabouts of Biden’s boxes have been public knowledge since 2011 courtesy of a public announcement from Biden and a press release from the university a year on.

What happens to Trump 2024?

Absolutely nothing. No indictment, conviction or jail time can stop Trump running for president in 2024. The only rules stipulated by the US constitution is that a presidential candidate be at least 35 years old (no age cap), born and bred in the US, and residing in the country for 14 years.

Trump may suffer in the court of public opinion, but so far the evidence suggests otherwise. Following his first indictment, the former president increased his lead in the polls over his 2024 Republican rivals.

In short, the Trump base is baked in.

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