If cows lie down is it about to rain? Does red sky at night bring shepherd’s delight? Some weather proverbs (like red sky) are more reliable than others (like cows) but research published in the journal Weather, Climate and Society suggests weather proverbs may have been more accurate in the past.
Piotr Matczak from the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland, tested the accuracy of 28 Polish weather proverbs by comparing their prediction with weather station data. Many of the proverbs provided long-term weather predictions, and not surprisingly their accuracy was low – just three of the proverbs have an accuracy of greater than 50%. The proverb with greatest accuracy (83%) translates as, “If Saint Matthew (24 February) does not melt ice, peasants will long puff to warm their cold hands.”
Interestingly he found the proverbs were more accurate in the past. This might be partly due to changes in agricultural practices, which have altered the landscape and local climate, as well as the impacts of climate change. A greater accuracy in areas that are nowadays in Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine, suggests that the movement of populations following the Second World War carried the proverbs some 200km westwards, to a land with differing climate characteristics.
