One week ago, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model projected the Dolphins to have a 76.6% chance to finish the 2019 NFL season with the number one overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Good news, considering that seems to be a part of the Dolphins’ rebuilding game plan.
Fast forward to today and Miami’s odds haven’t much changed. The Dolphins, according to the updated FPI simulations of the remaining weeks of the NFL season, now hold a 76.4% chance to finish the season with the top pick in the NFL Draft. That reduction of percentage points? Don’t worry too much about that for now — the Dolphins are still overwhelming favorites.
Miami’s Week 6 opponent, the Washington Redskins, currently sits with the second best odds to finish with the top pick — at 6.5%. Washington’s percentage grew from 4.6% last week with an embarrassing loss to the New York Giants, but their gained odds came at the expense of other teams — not the Dolphins.
This weekly update will be fascinating to see play out, especially with Miami holding a home contest against Washington in Week 6. Assuming the Dolphins lose that game, Miami probably obliterates Washington’s odds and the tank will continue onward in full force. But with odds skewed so heavily to favor the Dolphins, would Miami even lose the majority odds to finish with the top pick if they stole a win against Washington?
We’re a week away from finding out.
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