MIAMI _ Dolphins fans need to prepare themselves for this very real possibility:
That they do not take a quarterback in the first round of the 2020 draft.
That Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen _ and maybe a mid-round pick _ are the Dolphins' QBs next fall.
And that Tank for Tua could become Trade for Trevor (or Justin Fields or someone we haven't even heard of yet).
Because all of these things are true:
_ The Dolphins likely will not finish with a bad enough record to draft Joe Burrow.
_ There are real reservations around football that Justin Herbert is no better than Ryan Tannehill.
_ And there's a real possibility Tua Tagovailoa returns for his senior season at Alabama, if his Hamlet act during his recent media blitz was earnest.
What's more, there's not a ton of motivation for Georgia's Jake Fromm and Utah State's Jordan Love to go pro after lackluster junior seasons.
So a quarterback draft class that a year ago looked stocked with can't-miss prospects is now quite shaky beyond the top pick.
Now consider the guy who will be making the Dolphins' pick, Chris Grier, is cautious by nature. He has been waiting his entire life for this moment. Is he going to risk his career on a quarterback about whom he's only lukewarm?
And even if Tagovailoa does declare, will the Dolphins be comfortable enough in his medical reports to use a high draft pick on him?
Which brings us back to the top: Prepare yourself, Dolphins fan, for the possibility that you might have to wait until 2021 for your franchise quarterback.
It might be the smartest move.
Trevor Lawrence will likely be in that draft. So will Fields. And maybe a healthy Tagovailoa will be too.
Teams that reach for quarterbacks usually regret it. And none of the league's top-five-rated quarterbacks were drafted in the top five.
Plus, if the Dolphins end up with the fourth or fifth pick _ which is no sure thing, considering how well they're playing and how bad their remaining schedule is _ they could probably turn that pick into quite the haul in a trade if Herbert is on the board when they go on the clock. Some team will fall in love with the physically gifted but oft-robotic Oregon quarterback, and the Dolphins should (and probably will) entertain trade offers.
What's more: Yes, the Dolphins will have 14 picks, including three in the first round, but with each week, that haul looks a little less impressive. The Steelers and Texans, who both traded their 2020 firsts to Miami, are currently on track to make the playoffs. That means those picks would be in the 20s, not the teens.
Trading back would give the Dolphins more ammunition this year, and more importantly, next. They already have two first-rounders in 2021. Adding a third (or even fourth) would allow them great flexibility to trade up for their preferred quarterback _ which was the plan, until Tagovailoa's hip injury made that plan faulty.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins would still have an embarrassment of draft riches in a year that would line up nicely for their non-quarterback needs.
UK-based football writer (and ardent Dolphins supporter) Simon Clancy closely follows draft-eligible players, and has identified a slew of prospects who would be great scheme fits.
Among them: Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons, Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah, Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown and Penn State defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos.
Plus remember, the Dolphins also have more than $100 million in projected salary cap space, and plan to use much of it. That, plus Miami's draft capital, will allow Grier and coach Brian Flores to build a complete roster that will be ready to compete when the Dolphins add that elusive QB1.
Which brings us back to Fitzpatrick and Rosen, who are both under contract in 2020. Fitzpatrick has proven more than capable in his 15th season, with stats that aren't impressive, but still exceed his career averages. Plus, he's absolutely adored not just by the locker room, but also the coaching staff.
"Personally, I feel like I'm better now than I've ever been," Fitzpatrick said. " ... My confidence is at an all-time high."
By all accounts, the Dolphins seem open to bringing him back, assuming he wants to continue playing.
"I think he's a good player," Flores said. "He's a tough, physical leader. If anything, I think he's improved over the course of the season. He's very diligent as far as _ let's call it injury prevention and taking care of his body, like a lot of our guys are. I think that's just part of his routine. He's done a good job."
Does he want to continue to play? Fitzpatrick has declined to say. There are personal considerations. His wife and seven children never left Tampa when he signed with the Dolphins, so he's been shuttling back and forth through Alligator Alley on a near-weekly basis to see them.
But he would be walking away from $5.5 million, including $1.5 million guaranteed, should he retire.
Losing aside, Fitzpatrick seems to really enjoy playing for this organization, and it's easy to see him wanting to return for at least one more season.
"In terms of the day to day and the effort we put in from the top down ... this is a really good building," Fitzpatrick said. "I've had a very positive experience."
