The Miami Dolphins increased their playoff chances significantly on Sunday despite not playing.
As the Dolphins (7-7) took off for New Orleans on Sunday afternoon ahead of their Monday Night Football game against the Saints, they landed in The Big Easy to some good news from the 1 p.m. games.
Wins by the Buffalo Bills (9-6) over the New England Patriots (9-6) and Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) over the Baltimore Ravens (8-7), plus the Los Angeles Chargers’ (8-7) stunning upset loss to the lowly Houston Texans, have pushed Miami’s playoff chances up from 9% to 18%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Better yet, given the current up-to-the-minute standings, if the Dolphins win out in their final three regular-season games at the Saints (7-7) and Tennessee Titans (10-5) and home against the Patriots, Miami has greater than a 99% of the resulting 10-7 record being good enough for a playoff berth. The Dolphins are unlikely to remain in playoff contention in any scenario that involves a loss in any remaining game.
To take it a step above in the 4 p.m. slate of Sunday’s games, a win for AFC top seed Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) over the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) or a loss by Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) to the Denver Broncos (7-7) would make it so that the Dolphins control their own playoff fate. Winning out over the final three games would then secure a spot in the postseason.
The key in why the Bills result against the Patriots was so critical was that it puts Buffalo in the driver’s set for the AFC East title, which then pushes New England down to wild-card contention. The Dolphins want that because, with the Patriots now only one game ahead of them, Miami’s win-out scenario involves a win over New England plus the tiebreaker for a season sweep. There was no way Miami could win any tiebreaker involving the Bills after getting swept by them earlier this season.
The Dolphins entered Sunday with a 9% probability to make the playoffs after Thursday’s Titans win over the San Francisco 49ers and Saturday’s Indianapolis Colts victory against the Arizona Cardinals. Both the Titans and Colts are likely to get into the playoffs over the Dolphins with one the champion of the AFC South.
The Dolphins started the season 1-7 before a six-game winning streak put them in this improbable position heading into their final three games. It still is a challenging final stretch with all three opponents at or above .500.
