Variety retail chain Five Below spiked early Thursday after clearing earnings views and hiking its full-year forecast on Wednesday. Fellow discount retailer Dollar Tree topped Q1 forecasts and lifted its earnings outlook Wednesday morning. Dollar General stock jumped on earnings and a lifted outlook Tuesday. Ollie's Bargain Outlet topped forecasts, but the midpoint of its raised earnings guidance came in below analyst views.
Five Below
Five Below reported a 43% increase in earnings to 86 cents per share adjusted. Sales increased 19.5% to $970.5 million.
FactSet analysts expected earnings of 83 cents per share adjusted on $967 million in sales.
Same-store sales rebounded 7.1% after a 3% drop in the January-ended quarter. Analysts expected 6.7% comparable sales growth.
Five Below expects Q2 earnings to range from 50 cents to 62 cents per share adjusted on $975 million to $995 million in sales. The retailer expects to open 30 net new stores during the quarter and to generate 7% to 9% comparable sales growth.
The earnings outlook was in line with FactSet views for 54 cents per share. Five Below's sales forecast was ahead of analyst estimates for $955 million.
The company also lifted the lower end of its full-year forecast. Five Below now expects adjusted earnings to range from $4.25 to $4.72 per share, up from its prior forecast for $4.10 per share at the lower end.
Sales are expected to range from $4.33 billion to $4.42 billion. The company in Q4 guided for sales between $4.21 billion and $4.33 billion.
Analysts expect full-year earnings of $4.72 per share on $4.35 billion in revenue.
Five Below, which has over 1,800 stores in 44 states, has a Composite Rating of 93.
FIVE stock jumped 11% early Thursday. Shares eased less than 1% during Wednesday trade, paring its 4% gain from Tuesday.
The stock is testing its Dec. 5 high of 122, which the stock reached following a bullish October-quarter report. While a possible buy point exists at 122, the stock's gap above the 200-day moving average has proved to be a good entry. The stock is 49% below its record high of 237.86 from August 2021 through Wednesday.
Dollar Tree
Dollar Tree on Wednesday reported a 2.4% increase in earnings to $1.26 per share adjusted. Net sales came in at $4.64 billion, up 11.3% from last year.
FactSet expected earnings of $1.21 per share on $4.54 billion in revenue.
Same-store sales climbed 5.4% to outpace expectations for 4% growth.
The results were adjusted to reflect the upcoming sale of the company's Family Dollar segment. Dollar Tree on March 25 entered a deal to sell its Family Dollar business to Brigade and Macellum for just over $1 billion. Dollar Tree expects to net $800 million in proceeds from the deal, which should close in the second quarter of 2025.
The retailer lifted its earnings outlook to range from $5.15 to $5.65 per share adjusted, compared to its prior forecast for $5 to $5.50 per share. Dollar Tree maintained its sales outlook for revenue in the range of $18.5 billion to $19.1 billion. Same-store sales are expected to increase 3% to 5%.
FactSet analysts expect earnings of $5.28 per share adjusted on $19.58 billion in revenue.
The company operates over 16,000 stores in the U.S. and Canada. The March 26 earnings release showed 7,622 Family Tree stores at the end of Q4.
DLTR stock rebounded 4.2% Thursday after falling 8.4% on Wednesday. Shares jumped 6% on Tuesday following Dollar General's earnings.
Dollar Tree has a 77 Composite Rating.
The stock broke out of an irregular base on April 22 and is up 16% from the 79.80 buy point amid a steady advance.
Dollar General
Dollar General reported a 7.9% increase in earnings to $1.78 per share. FactSet expected $1.49 per share.
Sales climbed 5.3% to $10.4 billion, also ahead of views for $10.292 billion. Same-store sales increased 2.4% to outpace estimates for 1.5% growth.
The results ended a streak of at least eight quarters of declining bottom-line performance.
The company noted that uncertainty exists for the rest of the year due to a "highly dynamic" tariff environment. Dollar General lifted its guidance slightly, assuming that current tariff rates remain in place through mid-August. The retailer said it has plans to address potential reversions to the tariff rates previously announced on goods from China on April 2.
Dollar General now expects net sales growth of 3.7% to 4.7% for the full year, up from its prior forecast for 3.4% to 4.5% growth. The retailer lifted its same-store sales forecast to 1.5% to 2.5% growth. It previously expected a 1.2% to 2.2% increase.
Dollar General also narrowed its EPS forecast to range from $5.20 to $5.80 per share, up from its prior outlook for $5.10 to $5.80 per share.
Dollar General is the largest discount retailer by market capitalization, now exceeding $21 billion, according to IBD MarketSurge. It operates 20,594 stores under the Dollar General, DG Market, DGX and Popshelf brands, plus Mi Super Dollar General stores in Mexico.
DG shares jumped 15.9% Tuesday to shoot above a 97.85 buy point for a flat base. DG stock broke out on May 19 but retreated slightly below the entry. Shares climbed 1% Thursday after a slight decline Wednesday
The stock is up more than 49% in 2025. However, the stock is still miles away from its all-time high of 262.21 set in April 2022. Its Composite Rating is 68.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet
Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported a 2.7% increase in earnings to 75 cents per share adjusted. FactSet expected a slight drop to 71 cents a share.
Sales increased 13.4% to 567.7 million, just ahead of views for $566.7 million.
Comparable sales climbed 2.6% to outpace estimates for 1.7% growth.
Ollie's lifted its net sales outlook for the year to range from $2.579 billion to $2.599 billion, compared to its previous forecast for $2.564 billion to $2.586 billion. The retailer also raised its comparable sales forecast to range from 1.4% growth to 2.2% growth. Ollie's previously expected 1% to 2% same-store sales growth.
It also maintained its adjusted earnings outlook for $3.65 to $3.75 per share. However, the midpoint of that outlook is below FactSet expectations for $3.73 per share. Analysts expect $2.577 billion in sales for the year.
The company is not really a dollar store because it sells at much more varied price points. It has acquired more than 60 stores left shuttered by bankrupt Big Lots.
Unlike its rivals, Ollie's stock has been trending higher since a low in March 2022. Shares declined 1.8% Tuesday, nearly erasing its 2% gain on the year through Monday. The stock advanced 4% Wednesday, then declined 1.5% Thursday.
Shares tried to break out of a flat base in mid-May but failed. The stock today is holding above its 50-day moving average, though it remains below a potential entry at 119.76.
Ollie's stock has a Composite Rating of 88.
The stock has a 21-day average true range (ATR) of 3.89%. The average true range is a metric available on IBD's MarketSurge that gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks with a high ATR tend to make large price moves that can trigger sell rules. Stocks with lower ATRs tend to make more incremental moves.
With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now in a power trend, investors can buy stocks with ATRs up to 8%, though they should be wary of being too concentrated in high-octane names.
Five Below has an ATR of 5.5%, Dollar General's is 2.71%, and Dollar Tree's is 2.75%.
Foot Traffic Growth
This week's reports come as dollar stores are enjoying a revival of sorts. In April, customer visits increased 8.9% from the year-ago period. That's the best improvement of any retail category tracked by Placer.ai, an industry research firm.
"The segment continues to adapt to a rapidly changing economic environment and the shifting needs of consumers — whether by building out extended grocery options or offering discount products across a wider price range," Placer.ai said in a May 20 report.
Foot traffic at Dollar General grew 1.9% in the first quarter from the year-ago period, while average visits per store were steady. Bad weather in February hurt traffic at the retailer. But by March it had mostly recovered. By April, year-over-year visits per store were up 6.5%.
UBS on Thursday raised Dollar General's price target 26% to 120, keeping a buy rating. UBS thinks the backdrop is "finally becoming more favorable for the dollar store industry, with Q1 earnings expected to provide early proof points," The Fly reported.
Visits to Dollar Tree's flagship Dollar Tree brand increased 4.8% in Q1. Dollar Tree also had a strong April, with visits rising 21.2% year over year. Both dollar chains likely saw higher visits as consumers shopped ahead of tariff increases, the firm noted.
Wells Fargo and Truist on Monday both raised their price targets on Dollar Tree, to 105 and 100, respectively. Tariff impact remains top of mind, but Truist expects dollar stores in general to downplay the impact in their outlooks.
