Kristi Noem is hanging onto her job by a thread according to two popular “prediction market” sites which have placed her odds of being fired at around 40%. The sudden shift comes after the Secretary of Homeland Security made unsubstantiated claims against Alex Pretti, the victim of the most recent ICE shooting.
At last it seems like members of Donald Trump’s corrupt cabinet could see consequences for their actions as the likelihood of Noem being fired has jumped significantly. Prior to Pretti’s death the odds of her departure were around 12% but the probability of such an outcome has since jumped to 40% on Kalshi, and is currently sitting at 44% on Polymarket. Both are very popular prediction market sites.
The prediction sites show the odds on “Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?” and Noem by far is leading the race, overtaking Pam Bondi who currently sits around 17%. Bondi previously held the number one spot for “most likely to be fired” due to her handling of the Epstein files but it seems she’s off the hook for now at least.
Does this mean Kristi Noem will be replaced?
Unfortunately, these prediction sites are just that: predictions. No one can say for certain whether Noem will or won’t lose her job but we can certainly hope. Her deceitful and downright disrespectful statement regarding the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti has shown all that she is willing to lie even when the truth is plain for all to see. However, to see someone of the Trump administration face consequences for lying? That could really be a turning point.
There are already strong calls for Kristi Noem to be fired according to the Independent. New York’s Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul stated that “Kristi Noem has forfeited her right to lead,” in a press conference over the weekend. She went on to add, “I’m calling on her to resign as Secretary of Homeland Security or Donald Trump to do the right thing and just fire her. And, if not, she must be removed or impeached.”
But Donald Trump isn’t one to remove a loyal supporter of his, unless of course they’ve outlived their usefulness. If Noem is proving to be more of a hindrance to him then it’s very easy to imagine him turning on her to save his own skin as we’ve seen him do multiple times in the past.
As a matter of fact, the president seems to be hesitant to come to Noem’s defense. So far he hasn’t condoned nor condemned her statement, choosing instead to remain silent on the matter. The two did have a meeting yesterday, it’s not clear exactly what was said, but Trump reportedly did not suggest her job was at risk. Still, his lack of public support for her suggests her time is running out.
