A surge in business confidence "suggests that the UK recession is at an end", according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and its chief executive Michael Izza.
The confidence measure jumped to 4.8 at the end of June from -28.2 in March - the biggest improvement since the survey began in 2003.
The ICAEW uses the confidence index to construct forecasts of GDP growth (or contraction), and their graph, reproduced above, shows forecasts (grey line) against the actual figures (in red). Their original data is given as a spreadsheet below.
If their forecast is right, the UK economy is set to grow 0.5% this quarter, breaking five quarters of falling output.
Although to judge by some of the comments by Guardian.co.uk readers today, more than a few people remain to be convinced.
• DATA: the ICAEW's forecast of GDP change vs the actual change
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