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Nottingham Post
Nottingham Post
National
Oliver Pridmore

Does the Conservative Party have a future in Nottingham after election leaves city with no Tories?

Imagine a situation in which the Conservative Party has just won enough seats to control Nottingham City Council, but its leader is not happy. The party has gained enough councillors to lead the authority, but only by a majority of one, and its leader in Nottingham therefore reacts to this election by saying: "I am pleased with the result but I would have liked a bigger majority."

This was the very situation facing Nottingham's Conservatives back in 1987. Perhaps its leader back then, Bill Bradbury, would have enjoyed this moment more if he had known that this would be the last time the Conservatives were in control of Nottingham City Council for decades.

What would have been even more difficult for him to imagine was that 36 years later, the Conservative Party wouldn't just end up without control of Nottingham City Council. Instead, it would end up without one single elected member on the authority for the first time in history.

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This is now the very situation facing Nottingham's Conservatives following the most recent elections in May. Not only that, but the holding of the city's three parliamentary seats by Labour means that there is a total lack of any elected Conservative representatives throughout Nottingham.

How has it come to this for the current party of national government? More broadly, does the Conservative Party have a future in Nottingham? In answering those questions, it has to be noted that this year's local elections were not held in normal circumstances for Nottingham's Conservatives.

Former Nottingham City Council leader Bill Bradbury pictured after the Conservative Party's 1987 election victory. (Nottingham Post)

The party ended up losing the only two city councillors it had going into the election. It de-selected one of them, Roger Steel, leading his colleague Andrew Rule to resign in protest.

The situation led some executive members of Nottingham's Conservative federation to describe the party as being "in a mess." Many of them demanded an emergency meeting before the election with the local party's chairman, Paul Ruane.

Mr Ruane refused to hold such a meeting, saying that some members of the executive were being "disruptive." Anger in the local party became palpable, as one executive member said of Mr Ruane: "I think the power has gone to his head."

It is this very local context that some leading Conservatives are now pointing to in explaining the party's poor result in Nottingham. Ben Bradley, Conservative MP for Mansfield and Nottinghamshire County Council's leader, said: "It's a great shame and I think it doesn't reflect the views in the city.

"There are internal issues within the local Conservative Party there. Unfortunately, personalities and internal politics have probably exacerbated the problem and we've got a lot of work to do in the city.

"It is mad, given the record that Labour at Nottingham City Council have got, that they would get a bigger majority at the end of it. I do think we have to look at ourselves from that point of view and say that our Conservative group in that part of the world didn't organise itself well enough."

It is the state of the local party that former Tory group leader at Nottingham City Council, Andrew Rule, also pointed to. Councillor Rule was re-elected in May as an independent, though Roger Steel was unsuccessful.

Roger Steel and Andrew Rule pictured on stage during the Nottingham City Council local election count. (Joseph Raynor/Nottingham Post)

Councillor Rule is much more reluctant to talk about the Conservative Party than before the elections, now sitting in the 'Nottingham Independents and Independents' opposition group of four councillors. He said: "I'm nothing to do with the Nottingham Conservatives now.

"But if I had been in the party, there would be some serious reflection on those results. If I had been part of the senior leadership that delivered that result, I would be thinking about how that reflects on me and considering my own position."

As with any local election result though, the debate continues over whether they are an indication of the mood towards parties locally or nationally. Having been in power since 2010, recent years for the Conservative Party in government have been turbulent.

In the space of around three months last year, the United Kingdom was controlled by three different Conservative Prime Ministers. Many argue it is this national picture that explains the party's poor Nottingham performance, especially given that it came amid the loss of over 1,000 councillors across the country.

Paul Ruane himself said following the election: "The Conservative Party has unfortunately taken a battering across the country and I think in Nottingham we've simply fallen victim to that." Some even argue that the national factors at play are far broader than public anger at recent political turmoil.

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson visiting the Nottingham Post offices in 2019. (Nottingham Post)

With Nottingham joining the likes of Manchester and Liverpool in having no Conservative MPs or city councillors, some argue that there is a demographic trend which is resulting in the Conservative Party being less relevant in cities. Brendan Clarke-Smith is now Conservative MP for Bassetlaw, but was himself a Nottingham city councillor from 2003 until 2011.

He said: "In terms of what we offer to cities, maybe the Conservative Party's nature is changing, maybe we are appealing to different kinds of people. If you look at our newer voters from 2019, I would say the 'Red Wall' thing isn't a new thing.

"I would say they are the same kind of voters I had when I represented Clifton and Wilford, a lot of people who were buying their own homes, semi-skilled tradesmen, electricians, plumbers and builders - we're always very good at attracting those. I just think if you look at cities now they tend to be a lot younger, there's a different background and demographic."

This tussle between local and national arguments is likely to continue up until theories can be tested again at the next Nottingham City Council election, due in 2027. The next general election is closer, expected next year, but the strong majorities of Nottingham's three Labour MPs make it likely that the Conservative Party's attention will be more greatly focused on retaining its nine county seats.

That leaves the Conservative Party with four years to try and come to an agreement on what went so badly wrong in May. Only that next city council election will tell us whether May was a bump in the road for the Conservatives in Nottingham, brought about by local disputes, or something far more existential.

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