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The Progressive Corporation (PGR), headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio, operates as an insurance holding company. Valued at $115.9 billion by market cap, the company provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services.
Shares of this leading property & casualty insurance company have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. PGR has declined 30.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 26.9%. In 2026, PGR stock is down 14%, compared to the SPX’s 9.5% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, PGR’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF (KBWP). The exchange-traded fund has declined about 4.9% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 8.4% losses on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s double-digit dip over the same time frame.
On Apr. 15, PGR shares closed up more than 2% after reporting its Q1 results. Its EPS came in at $4.80, up 9.8% from the year-ago quarter. The company’s revenue was $22.2 billion, up 8.7% year over year.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect PGR’s EPS to decline 10.1% to $16.40 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 25 analysts covering PGR stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on eight “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 15 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell.”
This configuration is less bullish than three months ago, with two analysts suggesting a “Moderate Buy,” and one recommending a “Strong Sell.”
On May 4, KBW analyst Meyer Shields maintained a “Hold” rating on PGR and set a price target of $208, implying a potential upside of 6.1% from current levels.
The mean price target of $235.20 represents a 20% premium to PGR’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $325 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 65.9%.
