How close is Donald Trump to winning the magic number of 1,237 he needs to clinch the Republican nomination?
The GOP frontrunner would need to win 56% of the remaining pledged delegates to get there – which is about seven points better than his pace to this point.
But Indiana’s contest next Tuesday is designed to rain delegates on the victor – 30 of the state’s 57 delegates go to the statewide winner, who will also pick up delegates in individual congressional districts.
If Trump can win Indiana, where rival Ted Cruz has dug in with everything he’s got, then Trump could clear the 1,237 threshold with a strong showing in California on 7 June.
The California contest is unusually local, with the lion’s share of delegates going to the winners of the state’s 53 congressional districts and only 13 awarded statewide. There hasn’t been a lot of polling in the state, but what numbers there are indicate a double-digit lead for Trump, which of course could change or might be wrong in the first place.
That’s all to say that Trump has a path and it’s not all that narrow, especially if he wins Indiana.
At this point, stopping Trump from 1237 would require both a win in IN & keeping him to 100 in CA. Even then he gets close enough to worry.
— David Freddoso (@freddoso) April 27, 2016
Here’s the bar chart:
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report, in a piece titled The General Election Starts Now, argues that Trump does not have to get to 1,237 to win, because his sense of being the winner will be so strong:
Is it possible that Trump ends the primary season short of 1,237? Yes, but it won’t be by many delegates. Moreover, the more he wins, the harder it’s going to be for his opponents to argue that he doesn’t “deserve” the nomination because he didn’t win the majority of pledged delegates.
While lots of smarty-pants number crunchers are making the case for how/why Cruz can win on a second or third ballot, most voters have already wrapped their heads around the fact that Trump will be the nominee. That is only going to grow stronger, not weaker as we move forward.
Good summation of the delegate math. Difficult for Cruz, but an IN win would give Cruz big del haul & shift mo again https://t.co/ktzPlzd95j
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) April 27, 2016
