Now that the Scottish independence referendum has set the precedent, to nobody’s surprise different political parties are looking at what happened in Scotland and are making announcements on extending the franchise to 16- and 17- year-olds.
But what do young Scots make of being some kind of political vanguard? How did this young cohort respond and react to being the first of their age to be awarded the franchise? More to the point, will they grasp this electoral opportunity and reinvigorate electoral politics with sustained future engagement, underpinning higher levels of turnout in the future?
Evidence on the behaviour of the group during the Indyref experience is thin on the ground, but ICM did conduct a large post-referendum survey on behalf of the Electoral Commission (1,852 interviews), which included 112 interviews with 16- and 17- year-olds. What we learned from it may give policy makers some food for thought.
First of all, it seems evident that 16- and 17- year-olds are more likely to vote and to be satisfied than their marginally older counterparts
Straight-away we learn that a little something was different about the newly enfranchised group. Psephologists have long since known that turnout increases with age, but when we split out the 16- and 17- year-olds from the 18-24-year-olds, suddenly we discover a significant divergence: 16-17 year olds were significantly more likely to claim they voted than their older 18-24 counterparts (75% vs. 54%).
Some have extrapolated that 16- and 17- year-olds still at school remain under the influence of school and parents, an influence absent among college/university undergraduates a year or two older; but many do not discount the possibility that the oxygen and excitement associated with allowing 16- and 17- year-olds to vote for the first time was a real motivator.
Whether this yields a future electoral dividend premised on Scotland’s young being hooked on electoral opportunity, or whether these high levels of engagement wither on the vine as the shine begins to fade is less easy to predict. No doubt there will be hopes for the former (97% said they would vote again), but fear of the latter.
Motivation to vote was different too: having a say out-weighed perceived civic duties
Civic responsibility – shown by responses such as ‘it is my duty to vote’, ‘everyone should vote’, ‘it is my right’ – is always the main reason for people voting. The Scottish referendum was no exception, but for the 16- and 17- year-olds the leading desire was to ‘express their view’ followed by a desire for change. Hardly any said they voted simply because they were given the opportunity to vote.
What’s seems possible then, is that the extension of the franchise proved to be an outlet for the emergence of a refreshing attitude – the desire to be a catalyst for a positive future rather than a reflection that voting is just another function of citizenship, like paying taxes.
Information: received & understood
A high level of knowledge about the referendum was fairly evenly spread across all age groups, but 16 and 17 had certainly done their homework: they were more likely (68%) than every other age group to say they had enough information on what would happen as a result of a Yes vote, and also found it perfectly accessible.
Young voters also bucked the trend on satisfaction with the process of voting, aligning themselves with the oldest cohort on both postal and polling stations options
Four in five Scots (81%) were generally satisfied with the procedure of voting at election and referenda in Scotland, but those aged 16 and 17 were more likely to be satisfied than those aged 18-24-year-olds (81% vs. 69%).
Again, there appears to be separation between the two age groups at the youngest end of the scale, with the 16- and 17- year-olds expressing higher level of satisfaction and other views that were more in line with those of much more experienced voters. Indeed, they were highly satisfied with the procedure for voting at polling station and by post and, as first time voters, they were the ones who found written instructions on how to vote (84%) and the support from polling station staff (78%) most useful.
The Scottish electorate have priced in extending the franchise to 16-17s, with an overall surge in support given the Indyref experience
Perhaps the most important question to answer in all of this though, is whether or not support exists for the permanent extension of the franchise? On this, there is strong conclusion to make: a sizable majority (60%) of Scots support the move, rising to 75% among the 16-17 age group.
Perhaps the better question now is: how can it be possibly taken back from them?
- Martin Boon is director of ICM Unlimited
