For all of Iran’s fierce verbal response to fresh US threats of tougher sanctions, some senior officials in Tehran believe the door to diplomacy should stay open.
Four senior Iranian officials contacted by Reuters interpreted Pompeo’s remarks as a “bargaining strategy”, similar to Washington’s approach to North Korea.
“America does not want to get involved in another war in the region. Iran also cannot afford more economic hardship... always there is a way to reach a compromise,” said one of the Iranian officials, who was involved in Iran’s nuclear talks with major powers for two years.
“The era of military confrontations is over,” the official said. Like others giving their views on relations with the United States, the official asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
However, it will be difficult for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to back any diplomatic solution, because doing so could undermine his credibility among his hardline power base, who reject any detente with the West.
“They (Americans) are lying. Even if Iran accepts all these demands, they will continue to demand more. Their aim is changing Iran’s regime,” said one official who is close to Khamenei’s camp.
Pompeo’s speech did not explicitly call for a change in leadership in Iran, but he urged the Iranian people to reject their clerical rulers.
But with Iran’s economy so fragile, weakened by decades of sanctions, corruption and mismanagement, Khamenei may yet consider diplomacy over confrontation with the United States.
Some insiders said that, though difficult, he could drink “the cup of poison,” as his predecessor Khomeini described it when he reluctantly agreed to a UN-mediated truce that ended the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
“For most Iranians, the economy is the main issue, not what Iran does in the region or the country’s nuclear program,” said a senior Western diplomat in Tehran. He added, “That is why Iranian leaders will show some flexibility despite the harsh rhetoric.”
It was Iran’s weak economy that forced Khamenei to give tentative backing for the 2015 nuclear agreement with major powers. The deal, engineered by pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, ended the country’s economic and political isolation.
A third Iranian official said he expected that the United States would eventually have to accept some level of Iranian uranium enrichment activity and ballistic missile work, because “these are Iran’s red lines”.
Several Iranian officials told Reuters that the hardline elite, including Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), viewed Pompeo’s demands as a “declaration of war” against Iran.
Analysts said the risk of a broader conflict could not be ruled out, despite running counter to Trump’s own stated desire to disentangle the United States from a generation of costly conflicts in the Middle East.
“If Americans push Iran to the corner... then Iran will have no other option but to react harshly,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz. “This is what hawks want.”
“Iran has done well in proxy wars, but they cannot confront Israel or the US in a direct war,” said the Western diplomat. “They don’t have modern weapons.”
