Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may still be due a rally until the end of the year, but analyst Benjamin Cowen is urging caution.
What Happened: In an interview published on Sep.3, Cowen said he expects Bitcoin to set a September low near its 20-week moving average, similar to its 2017 cycle.
He warned that losing the 50-week moving average around $95,000–$96,000 would "mark the end of the bull market."
He expects Bitcoin to absorb altcoin liquidity during this correction, leaving altcoins underperforming until Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) achieves durable all-time highs.
Cowen advises concentrating portfolios in Bitcoin through September–October, with an 80/20 BTC-ETH allocation offering the best risk-adjusted returns and rotating back to altcoins only after Bitcoin breaks new highs.
He tempers altcoin price expectations, seeing Ethereum capped around $6,000–$8,000 and XRP around $5–$7, and notes that broader macro pressures, including seasonal weakness, Fed policy, and an expected S&P pullback, support the correction thesis.
With limited time left in the cycle before a likely bear market in 2026, he views holding $95,000 as the ultimate integrity test for the bull market.
Also Read: Bitcoin Stuck At $110,000 But Institutions Will Drive A Rebound In Q4, Expert Says
Why It Matters: Cowen added that Gold’s breakout timing could coincide with Bitcoin’s September low, mirroring 2024 patterns when "gold was trying to break out and then it finally did break out. And what’s interesting is when it broke out, that ended up marking a low for Bitcoin USD."
Macro factors support the correction thesis through seasonal weakness and Federal Reserve policy impacts.
Cowen expects the S&P 500 to drop 5% into late September before bouncing, creating broader risk-off conditions affecting crypto markets.
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