Afternoon summary
- Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem former business secretary, has spoken out against the prospect of Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox taking full control of Sky. Calling for a full review by the Competition and Markets Authority, Cable said:
This deal may be acceptable to a majority of shareholders but that doesn’t mean it is in the public interest.
The minister should now call in the takeover and start the process of independent investigation into the impact on plurality and competition.
The National Union of Journalists also objected, saying the government should halt the deal until the second stage of the Leveson inquiry, the one that is supposed to investigate specific phone-hacking allegations at News of the World and elsewhere, has been completed. The NUJ general secretary Michelle Stanistreet said:
It is vital that this deal is halted until part two of the Leveson Inquiry has taken place. Most of the British public do not believe that Rupert Murdoch is a fit and proper person to run BskyB, and whilst there are clear reasons of corporate opportunism that drive his desire to finally clinch this deal, there’s no benefit for the public in this takeover being given the green light.
- The Local Government Association has said today’s social care settlement from the government is “hugely disappointing”. (See 3.25pm.)
- Derek McKay, Scotland’s finance minister, has put an above-inflation increase in health spending at the centre of his draft budget for next year. He has also confirmed that he will not match Westminster’s tax cut for higher earners, meaning that from next year higher-rate taxpayers in Scotland will pay more income tax than in England.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Here’s a Guardian video of Theresa May at the Brussels summit, including shots of her looking rather isolated.
Ipsos MORI poll gives Tories 11-pt lead over Labour
Ipsos MORI has released its December political monitor poll today. There is a summary here, and the full charts showing the figures are here (pdf). Here are some of the key points.
- The Conservatives continue to enjoy a healthy lead. It’s 11 points in this poll.
- Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have both seen their satisfaction ratings fall over the last month - but May’s net rating is +15 and Corbyn’s is -32.
- May is more popular than Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown were at the same stage in their premierships, but less popular than John Major and Tony Blair at the same point.
- Corbyn is more unpopular than any opposition leader since 1997 at the equivalent point in their leadership. Until recently he was ahead of Iain Duncan Smith’s ratings at the equivalent point, but he has just crossed over.
- A majority of voters thinks the government is doing a bad job of handling Brexit - even though a majority also thinks May herself is doing a good job.
David Prentis, the Unison general secretary, has put out a statement about the social care settlement. He says that councils need more money and that, instead of raising council tax, the government should be using “the growing surplus of centrally-collected business rates to ease the pressure on councils”.
The government need to sort the social care crisis they helped to cause - instead they're just passing the buck https://t.co/grABeyhgaS
— Dave Prentis (@DavePrentis) December 15, 2016
Council chiefs say 'hugely disappointing' Javid announcement fails to address social care crisis
Lord Porter, the Conservative peer who chairs the Local Government Association, has put out a lengthy and fairly damning statement about today’s social care settlement on behalf of the LGA. Here are the key points.
- Porter said that today’s announcement was “hugely disappointing” and that it failed to address the social care crisis.
Measures announced in today’s settlement will help in part but fall well short of what is needed to fully protect the services which care for elderly and vulnerable people today and in the future.
Councils, the NHS, charities and care providers have been clear both before and since the autumn statement about the need for an urgent injection of genuinely new additional government funding to protect services caring for elderly and disabled people. Given this unified call for action, it is hugely disappointing that today’s settlement has failed to find any of this new money to tackle the growing crisis in social care.
Bringing forward council tax raising powers will help some areas in the short-term but extra council tax income will not bring in anywhere near enough money to alleviate the pressure on social care both now and in the future. Increasing the precept raises different amounts of money for social care in different parts of the country and will add an extra financial burden on already struggling households.
- He said government cuts planned for next year would more than wipe out any extra revenue councils get from being allowed to increase council tax.
Social care faces a funding gap of at least £2.6bn by 2020. Council tax rises will not be enough to prevent the need for continued cutbacks to social care services and very many other valued local services. Already planned further £2.2bn cuts to revenue support grant to councils next year will far exceed the benefit of any extra council tax income.
- He said reallocating money from the new homes bonuses would reduce the incentive to build new homes.
Today’s announcement of funding for social care from New Homes Bonus reforms is not new money but a redistribution of funding already promised to councils. It is wrong to present this as a solution, given the scale of the funding crisis. This is money which was taken from councils in the first place and this move will see money taken away from councils which is designed to incentivise new homes at a time when the government has made boosting housebuilding a clear priority.
- He called for an “urgent and fundamental review of social care”.
The government must recognise why social care matters and treat it as a national priority. There needs to be an urgent and fundamental review of social care and health before next year’s spring budget. Local government leaders, who are responsible for social care in their local community, must be part of that review. This is imperative to get a long-term, sustainable solution to the social care crisis that the most vulnerable people in our society deserve.
- He said services would be cut because of the impending cuts to council budgets.
Next year will continue to be hugely challenging for all councils, who we estimate face an overall funding gap of £5.8bn by 2020. Further government funding cuts will result in local authorities up and down the country having to make significant reductions to the local services communities rely on, including filling potholes, collecting waste, maintaining our parks and green spaces and running children’s centres, leisure centres and libraries, to plug growing funding gaps.
Here is a Politics Weekly podcast special - a recording of a live event in London, hosted by Anushka Asthana and Heather Stewart and featuring the remain campaign’s Ameet Gill, Vote Leave’s Paul Stephenson, the lead claimant in the article 50 case Gina Miller, the shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry and the Ukip MP Douglas Carswell.
Lunchtime summary
- Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox has formally lodged its £11.7bn bid to take full control of Sky, as he looks to seal a deal to create the most powerful media group in Europe. As Mark Sweney reports, Murdoch will now need to gain regulatory approval for the deal, which values Sky at more than £18bn, which will give him control of pay-TV operations in the UK, Germany and Italy; in addition to ownership of the Times, Sunday Times and Sun, and radio group TalkSport. Karen Bradley, the culture secretary, now has 10 working days to decide whether the deal raises public interest concerns, specifically relating to media plurality. Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader and shadow culture secretary, said the bid must be referred to Ofcom. He said in a statement:
This bid was abandoned in the wake of the phone-hacking scandal, and now it’s back. The secretary of state must refer the bid to Ofcom, to assess whether it would result in too much media power being concentrated in too few hands, and whether Rupert and James Murdoch are ‘fit and proper persons’ to run a broadcaster.
Fox is attempting to finalise this deal as the Christmas break approaches - but there is still time for the government to intervene. They must express their view to parliament before Christmas.
When she stood on the steps of Downing Street this summer, the prime minister said to the people of this country that ‘when we take the big calls, we’ll think not of the powerful, but you’. This is a big call. The government needs to decide whose side it’s on.
- Lord Mandelson, the former European commissioner and former Labour cabinet minister, and Lord O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary, have both backed the claim made by Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s ambassador to the EU, that negotiating a trade deal with the EU could take up to 10 years. (See 11.39am and 1.38pm.) Here is a Guardian Reality Check looking at this issue.
Updated
Former cabinet secretary says no chance of agreeing final post-Brexit deal with EU within 2 years
The BBC has just released extracts from an interview that Carolyn Quinn has conducted with Lord O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary, for this weekend’s Westminster Hour on Radio 4. O’Donnell said there was no chance of Britain concluding all aspects of its Brexit negotiations within two years.
We certainly won’t have come to any final arrangements in two years’ time. We might well get to a point where we can symbolically leave but all sorts of details will still remain to be sorted out.
We’ll have got some arrangement whereby we can say, right, from now on we’re no longer going to be governed by the European court of justice. But it will still be unclear precisely what the deal will be for all sorts of parts of goods and services for our trade, and certainly may well be unclear about what access we might have to their markets.
That was why a transitional deal was essential, he argued. Asked if he agreed with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, about “thoughtful politicians” being in favour of a transitional deal, O’Donnell said:
I think that’s a statement of the completely blindingly obvious. I mean the idea that you can manage this carving out of a new relationship between the UK and the EU in 18 months let alone two years, there’s not a chance, there never was a chance. That’s not to say we can’t have symbolically left. But it means that we’ve got to get our heads round the idea that leaving may be a symbolic act and that lots and lots of the details will still remain to be sorted out, so the uncertainty will not have gone away.
Asked how long it would take to negotiate a final post-Brexit settlement with the EU, O’Donnell replied:
Years and years ... I can imagine it taking at least five years to get through all of the details. And I imagine some of the transitional arrangements may be longer than that.
Updated
Labour accuses government of failing to provide solution to 'spiralling crisis in social care'
Teresa Pearce, the shadow communities secretary, has condemned the council spending settlement as “all smoke and mirrors”, saying it is not a solution to the crisis in social care. In a statement she said:
This local government finance settlement is all smoke and mirrors – pushing numbers around but not offering any new money. Whilst we are glad that the government has finally acknowledged that there is a deep and spiralling crisis in social care, this settlement does not offer any solutions.
Directing £240m from the new homes bonus to fund adult social care will barely make a dent in the funding gap, which is predicted to be at least £2.6bn by 2020. Nor does it compensate for the £4.6bn which has already been cut from adult social care since 2010.
The council tax precept has already proven to be an inadequate and short-term sticking plaster for a problem which needs long-term answers. This will simply not meet existing need.
Shifting the burden on to council tax payers creates a postcode lottery in social care services. The most deprived local authorities will be unable to raise the money they need through council tax. Wealthy areas will prosper whilst poor communities will struggle.
Winter is already here and there is not a penny more for the 1.2m elderly people who are living without the care they need. What is clear is that the government have no new ideas on how to fund social care, and are just passing the buck to overstretched local authorities and council tax payers.
The Green party says it has been told by the BBC that it will not get any non-election party political broadcasts in 2017. The BBC has told the Greens that, to qualify for PPBs, a party has to have “substantial levels of past and current electoral support” and that the BBC’s view is that the Greens don’t meet this criteria.
With 1.1m votes at the general election, more than 150 councillors, two seats on the London assembly and the Green candidate coming third in the London mayor elections, the Greens think this is unfair. Jonathan Bartley, the party’s co-leader, said:
This is our message to BBC officials who do not think the Green party should get a party political broadcast: we will not be silenced. 2016 has been a year marked by fear, insecurity and a rapidly warming planet. Green politics of hope and compassion are needed now more than ever.
After overwhelming success in the London and local elections this year it is ridiculous for the BBC to say we do not have enough electoral support to present our message to the country.
Fair is fair - we will continue to fight the BBC on this until they stop shutting us out.
The BBC ruling only applies to general PPBs. The Greens should still qualify for PPBs allocated at the time of the local elections.
Clegg says Brexit transitional deal 'completely inevitable'
A transitional deal with the EU after the article 50 process concludes is “completely inevitable” to avoid losing access to vital European intelligence databases, Nick Clegg has said.
The former deputy prime minister said it had been a misjudgment for the government to make a transitional deal into a political issue.
It is a measure of how contorted and constipated the debate is that it has become a headline issue. It’s an obvious inevitability, unless you are deluded enough to believe you can wrap everything in 18 months.
In a rational world, there would be no politics about this at all. The government would say right from the outset that we will get to the Holy Grail of Brexit, but that is separate from the divorce process of article 50 and we will need a bridge.
This is a self-inflicted controversy and the government could have taken all the heat out of this, and said ‘yes of course there will be a transition.’
Publishing the latest in a series of reports he has released on the challenges posed by Brexit, Clegg said Theresa May’s promise to cut ties with the European court of justice could a serious stumbling block in the UK’s leverage in EU negotiations on intelligence and defence co-operation, which the government believes is one of Britain’s key assets.
The UK will have to agree to EU rules on data sharing, subject to the ECJ jurisdiction, in order to continue access to crime databases such as the Schengen information system which allows police forces to share real-time alerts on suspects, vehicles and firearms.
In many ways, [the government] could use our co-operation on home affairs as an asset, and say ‘we know you didn’t vote to make us less safe, we don’t want to lower our guard so this is going to take a while.’ Theresa May could use this to buy time, but instead her interpretation of buying herself time is a silence.
Meanwhile, back in Brussels, if this video footage is anything to go by, Theresa May seems to be short of friends at the EU summit. This tweet is from Sky’s Emily Purser.
Oh CRINGE Theresa May has got no mates pic.twitter.com/glcLGbPqBU
— Emily Purser (@EmilyPurser) December 15, 2016
Huw Merriman, a Conservative, asks if Javid supports a system of national funding for social care.
Javid says there should be a balance between national funding and local funding.
And that’s it. The statement is over.
The Local Government Information Unit, a local government thinktank, has dismissed today’s announcement as a “sticking plaster” which does not address the severity of the adult social care funding crisis. In a statement the LGiU’s chief executive Jonathan Carr-West said:
Today’s statement contained some short term measures that will be welcome to local government. It was good to finally get some clarity on the roadmap towards 100% business rate retention.
However, in many ways, this settlement illustrates exactly what is wrong with our over centralised political system as the secretary of state shuffled funding from one silo to another. Council tax rises cannot be the answer to the crisis in adult social care funding as many of the councils with the most pressing care needs have the lowest council tax base.
In the end, this problem cannot be addressed while we continue to treat health and social care as separate systems and to protect the NHS at the expense of social care. After a decade of public debate all we have is a sticking plaster of increased council tax and no long term solution for the greatest public policy question of our age.
Governments continue to protect the NHS without vital reform whilst demanding more and more from councils to reduce the national deficit. Using local authorities as the whipping boy of the Treasury will only go so far. Radical reform is long overdue and the Treasury should have the NHS in its sights in order to answer this crucial question.
These are from Jim McMahon, the shadow local government minister and a former leader of Oldham council.
The Secretary of State has proven he's a keen recycler: no new central government funding for social care, double counting and CTax hikes!
— Jim McMahon MP (@JimfromOldham) December 15, 2016
Autumn statement assumes 10.6% Council Tax increase, plus 6% social care, plus Police, Fire etc. Expect 20% increase over this parliament
— Jim McMahon MP (@JimfromOldham) December 15, 2016
These are from Nick Golding, editor of the Local Government Chronicle.
By 19-20 "hard working families" will be paying less in council tax, says Javid. One suspects social care will still be in crisis by then.
— Nick Golding (@NickGolding) December 15, 2016
Javid defers proposal to force parish/town councils to have referendums for v small rises in their precepts
— Nick Golding (@NickGolding) December 15, 2016
What last min arguments have gone on over fin settlement? @CommunitiesUK say statemt docs to be published "over course of day" V last minute
— Nick Golding (@NickGolding) December 15, 2016
@KeeleyMP Totally. But sounds like some movement of £ from districts to more hard-pressed counties, if new homes bonus less generous.
— Nick Golding (@NickGolding) December 15, 2016
.@jomillerdonny: Taking £ from New Homes Bonus may alleviate s term pressures, but robbing Peter to pay Paul will not tackle systemic £ prob
— Nick Golding (@NickGolding) December 15, 2016
Sarah Wollaston, the Conservative chair of the Commons health committee, has been tweeting about the settlement.
I'm not convinced that local gov settlement is new money, it brings some of it forward but doesn't grasp seriousness of the shortfall 1/2
— Sarah Wollaston MP (@sarahwollaston) December 15, 2016
2/2 rising unmet need for social care will not be resolved without genuine cross party working to find a long term solution to funding
— Sarah Wollaston MP (@sarahwollaston) December 15, 2016
Here is the Labour MP Anna Turley on Javid’s statement.
Yet again Sajid Javid being appalling. Worst & most shameless Tory I have come across. Total failure on social care for our vulnerable.
— Anna Turley MP (@annaturley) December 15, 2016
Javid basically says if you want to be able to care for elderly & vulnerable you have to build more houses. Planning blackmail for councils?
— Anna Turley MP (@annaturley) December 15, 2016
Peter Bone, the Conservative MP, says he agrees with Sarah Wollaston and Clive Betts about the need for proper cross-party talks to address this.
Javid says he would like to put party politics aside and find a long-term solution.
Labour’s Diana Johnson says richer areas will be able to raise more than poorer areas using the increase in the precept. How is that fair?
Javid says the money that would have gone into the new homes bonuses, which is going into care instead, will be allocated on the basis of need.
Updated
Here is the start of the Press Association story about Javid’s announcement.
Sajid Javid has claimed almost 900 million extra will be available to local authorities over the next two years to fund social care services.
The communities secretary said up to £208m could be raised in 2017/18 and £444m in 2018/19 by plans to allow English local authorities to bring forward council tax increases totalling 6% over the next two years.
He added a £240m “adult social care support grant” will be created for 2017/18 by reforms to an existing scheme designed to encourage councils to build extra properties, known as the new homes bonus (NHB).
Labour said people face higher taxes but worse public services for their money.
Norman Lamb, the Lib Dem former health minister, says this is “a feeble response to a national crisis”. He says lifting the precept is an “unfair way to raise additional money which will increase inequalities between rich and poor areas”. He challenges Javid to confirm that he will work with others to address this “real national crisis”.
Javid defends the measures he has announced.
Sarah Wollaston, the Conservative chair of the Commons health committee, says this announcement does not go far enough on social care. She urges Javid to start cross-party talks to find a long-term settlement to the adult social care crisis.
Javid says the money he is announcing today is £900m of new money.
He says he wants to talk to the opposition, and local leaders, about finding solutions to this issue.
Joe Anderson, the Labour mayor of Liverpool, has used Twitter to say Javid’s announcement on social care does not go far enough.
Government response by @sajidjavid to Social Care crisis like "putting plaster on patient that needs a triple by pass" #elderlypoorsuffer
— Joe Anderson (@mayor_anderson) December 15, 2016
Letting Councils raise Council Tax by 3% instead of 2% is not the bold radical change Social Care needs from @sajidjavid
— Joe Anderson (@mayor_anderson) December 15, 2016
In the Commons Labour’s Clive Betts, chair of the communities committee, asks Javid to accept that this settlement does not fill the black hole in adult social care funding which is estimated to be worth more than £2bn.
Javid says that, taken together, all the extra money announced today and announced previously for adult social care goes beyond what the Local Government Association was expecting.
These are from Sarah Calkin from the Local Government Chronicle.
Javid: £240m adult social care support grant in 2017-18 from NHB. Doesn't go very far between 152 councils
— Sarah Calkin (@sjcalkin) December 15, 2016
Javid claims combined measures will make additional £900m for social care over 2 years. Not sure that will stand up to scrutiny #localgov
— Sarah Calkin (@sjcalkin) December 15, 2016
Javid says variation in delayed transfers of care is unacceptable, integration and BCF framework to be published shortly to tackle it #nhs
— Sarah Calkin (@sjcalkin) December 15, 2016
Javid is responding to Thomas.
He says Thomas is wrong to say there is no new money in the announcement today.
Gareth Thomas, the shadow communities minister, is responding for Labour.
He asks whether the government should be cutting corporation tax when council budgets are under so much pressure.
He says this announcement will put council tax bills up.
He says Downing Street is making it harder for families to manage. Council tax bills will have risen 17% by the end of this parliament, he says.
Javid urges councils to show restraint when setting council tax figures.
Javid says lifting the adult social care precept will only cost council tax payers an extra £1 a month.
And, because it was always intended to allow council tax bills to rise by 6% by the end of this parliament, by 2019-20 bills will be no higher than they would have been.
Javid says his plans will raise almost £900m extra for adult social care over next two years
Javid says, taken together, his announcements will release almost £900m more for adult social care over the next two years.
Javid confirms that the government will let councils bring forward the planned increase in the social care precept.
- Lifting adult social care precept to raise extra £208m for care in 2017-18, and extra £44m in 2018-19.
Javid announces £240m adult social care support fund
Javid says adult social care is the biggest cost pressure on local government.
The government has already set aside extra funding over this parliament.
He says savings from reforms to the new homes bonus will be retained by councils to fund adult social care.
- A £240m adult social care support fund to be available for councils in 2017-18.
Sajid Javid's statement on council funding and social care
Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, is making his statement on council funding and social care now.
He says councillors can learn from best practice about how to improve efficiencies.
Last year’s settlement was a “flat cash” one, he said. (That means it did not rise in line with inflation.)
He says today he is publishing a paper that confirms the second year of the four-year spending settlement announced last year.
Mandelson says 5- to 10-year timescale for negotiating UK-EU trade deal 'seems realistic'
Mandelson, who used to be the EU’s trade commissioner, also told the business committee that the forecast that it could take up to 10 years for the UK to negotiate a trade deal with the EU was “realistic”.
Although Brexit could be negotiated more quickly, “the separate negotiation on what trade relationship replaces our membership of the EU will be harder and longer and will require the approval of all member states and their parliaments,” he said.
He said it the government left the single market and the customs union, and had to negotiate a bespoke trade deal, that would be “a harder slog”.
It will not be achieved simply or quickly. While we can’t be certain about how long it will take, a time-span of between five and 10 years seems to me realistic.
Updated
Lord Mandelson, the former Labour business secretary and former European commissioner, was giving evidence to the Commons business committee this morning. He said that a “hard” Brexit could lead to a “very severe deterioration” in conditions for business.
If in the long term, businesses are facing border tariffs, customs barriers, frictional costs and regulatory disruption and interruption of trade, we are risking a very severe deterioration in the UK business environment.
This deterioration is not going to happen straight away. That was the mistaken impression given in the referendum. It will be a gradual, inexorable worsening of the conditions for business in the UK.
That’s why those who say ‘It appears to be going OK so far’ are completely missing the point. It hasn’t even kicked in yet.”
Lord Mandelson said he wanted a “soft” Brexit with “maximum continuity of trade between the EU and UK” and immigration controls that have “the least negative impact on business, as well as on communities, public services and universities”.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
As for the rest of the papers, here is the Politics Home list of top 10 must-reads, and here is the ConservativeHome round-up of today’s politics stories.
And here are three Brexit stories from worth reading.
An EU turf battle over Brexit negotiations burst into the open on Wednesday as the European Parliament warned that Britain faces the “very hardest” of exits if MEPs are shut out of talks.
The threat of a potential veto was outlined by Martin Schulz, the parliament’s outgoing president, on the eve of an dinner of EU-27 leaders in Brussels to nominate negotiators and outline a process for Brexit negotiations.
MEPs were furious after the Financial Times reported a draft text that nominated the European Commission as the union’s lead negotiator in talks, but gave MEPs no seat at the negotiating table or in key preparatory meetings.
A new report from the Institute for Government says that Whitehall departments feel uncertain about what to do in the run up to the PM triggering Article 50 in March.
A new report from the Institute for Government says that Whitehall departments feel uncertain about what to do in the run up to the PM triggering Article 50 in March.
The think tank said that despite clear progress in preparing for negotiations, civil servants across Whitehall are uncertain of where to begin, and what to focus on.
“Departments need to know how they are going to be involved throughout the negotiations so they can put the necessary people in place and tailor their preparation accordingly,” it said.
You can read the full Institute for Government report here (pdf).
British service sector exports could take a $35bn (£27.9bn) hit by 2030 if the UK loses access to the EU’s single market or faces protectionist US trade policies following Donald Trump’s presidency, the Press Association reports.
Research conducted by HSBC and Oxford Economics warns that service exports could be knocked 4% lower to around $860bn (£686bn) by 2030 if tariff and non-tariff barriers are introduced in the years ahead.
America’s global trade partners are looking for signs that Trump might back down from protectionist campaign rhetoric that could put international trade agreements at risk, while Britain’s financial services industry anxiously awaits news over whether the UK will pursue a so-called hard Brexit.
It would see Britain give up tariff-free trade and EU passporting rights for financial services, in order to take control of immigration.
Service exports - which include financial services, legal advice and consulting, passenger airlines, and IT - already accounted for 44% of total UK exports in 2015 at $345bn (£275bn), compared to 30% in 2000.
The EU currently accounts for around 38% of total UK service exports.
Liam Fox says the government has made no decision yet about whether or not to remain in the customs union. The decision will be informed by the evidence, he says.
Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, asks a question about arms sales to Saudi Arabia. But it was rather overshadowed by his tie. Replying, Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, said Gardiner’s tie made him glad to be colour-blind. (On Saudi Arabia, he just defended the government’s decision to sell them arms.)
But John Bercow, the Speaker, spoke up for Gardiner’s neckwear. The tie was “beautiful ... tasteful ... attractive ... [and] not boring”, he said.
Here is the Daily Mail’s Quentin Letts on Sir Ivan Rogers.
Brexit pessimist Sir Ivan Rogers, much in news this morning, used to be private secretary to Kenneth Clarke. No further questions.
— Quentin Letts (@thequentinletts) December 15, 2016
And this is from the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman.
Sir Ivan Rogers may just be channelling the views of other EU countries. But during the renegotiation he always took the most negative view
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) December 15, 2016
Labour’s Chris Leslie says we should thank Sir Ivan Rogers for giving us a reality check.
Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, says we should be thanking the British people for voting to leave the EU.
In the Commons international trade questions has just started. Bill Esterson, the shadow international trade minister, asks about Sir Ivan Rogers’ comments.
Mark Garnier, the international trade minister, says the government will not provide a running commentary on Brexit. Rogers was reporting the views of “interlocutors”, he says.
And he says it is incredibly difficult to know how long it will take to complete a trade deal. The US-Jordan one took just four months, he says.
Theresa May has arrived at the EU summit in Brussels. On her way in, she delivered a short statement to reporters covering migration, Syria and the dinner tonight for the 27 other EU leaders, who are going to discuss Brexit without May or any British representatives being present. She said:
What we will be discussing at this summit is how we work together to deal with the serious challenges that we face. So we will be discussing migration. I’ve always said from the outset on migration that Europe needs to do more to tackle the root causes. That means disrupting the smuggling networks, it means deterring more people from making the journey in the first place and returning those who have no right to be here.
We also need to robustly condemn what is happening in Syria. President Assad and his backers in Russia and Iran bear responsibility for the tragedy in Aleppo. What we must be doing it ensuring that those who are responsible for these atrocities are held to account. We must also do all we can to ensure that a ceasefire is secured so the United Nations can help to bring to safety the innocent people of Aleppo.
And finally I welcome the fact that the other leaders will be meeting to discuss Brexit tonight. As we are going to invoke article 50, trigger the negotiations, by the end of March next year, it is right the other leaders prepare for the negotiations as we have been preparing. We will be leaving the EU. We want that to be as smooth and as orderly a process as possible. It is not just in our interests. It is in the interests of the rest of Europe as well.
Reporters tried to ask her about Sir Ivan Rogers’ comments, but she did not respond.
This is what Number 10 is saying about Sir Ivan Rogers’ warning about the risk of it taking 10 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
It is wrong to suggest this was advice from our ambassador to the EU. Like all ambassadors, part of his role is to report the views of others. We don’t recognise this. The government is fully confident of negotiating a deal to exit the EU that works in the interest of both the UK and the rest of Europe.
The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, who broke this story, has written a blog about this. She describes Rogers’ comments as “a reality check of just how hard these negotiations might prove”.
Yesterday David Davis, the Brexit secretary, told MPs that he thought the Brexit talks, including negotiating a trade deal with the EU, could be concluded within 18 months. That sounded a tad optimistic at the time, but a revelation this morning illustrates quite how ambitious Davis was being with his forecast because it turns out that Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s ambassador to the EU, has told ministers that negotiating a trade deal with the EU could take a decade.
Here is our story about Rogers’ warning.
On the Today programme Dominic Raab, the Conservative MP and a prominent Vote Leave campaigner, accused Rogers of “gloomy pessimism”. Raab told the programme:
Let’s not be consumed by Sir Ivan’s gloomy pessimism, let’s get behind the Government, let’s set out the case for a strong, post-Brexit relationship with the EU on trade, security, and other areas.
Raab said it was reasonable for Rogers to set out “the very worst case scenario”. But he also said that Rogers’ judgment was questionable.
[Rogers] was the diplomat who persuaded David Cameron to dilute his ambitions for the renegotiation, which was one reason the referendum was lost. So, he has been rather scarred, in fairness, by his own pessimistic advice in the past ...
I respect the Foreign Office’s professionalism, but they have always been very pro-EU, and very anti-leaving the EU.
Theresa May is in Brussels today for an EU summit, so doubtless she will get the chance to discuss this all with Rogers himself in person. I will be covering all the Brexit developments.
And in the Commons we are getting the statement about letting councils raise council tax to help fund social care. I will cover that in detail.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Lord Mandelson, the former Labour business secretary, gives evidence to the Commons business committee on industrial strategy.
9.40am: Theresa May is due to arrive in Brussels for today’s EU summit.
10am: Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
Around 11.30am: Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, is due to announce the local government settlement, including plans to let councils raise council tax to fund social care.
2.30pm: Derek Mackay, the Scottish finance minister, announces his draft budget plans for 2017-18.
As usual, I will also be covering the breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.
