HOUSTON _ Rockets guard Paul Chris Paul _ the man who effectively willed Houston to a critical Game 5 win and a 3-2 series lead behind a bevy of absurd second-half isolation shots _ will not play in Game 6 of the Western Conference finals
His status for a possible Game 7 is up in the air as well.
Some might view Paul's injury as clearing the way for the Warriors to win back-to-back games and advance to the NBA Finals. It's an easy viewpoint to have and it's not entirely misplaced.
If only it was that easy.
The Warriors might cite their triumph in the 2016 Western Conference finals _ when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series _ as evidence that this 3-2 hole is not as daunting as it might look (an argument that became easier to make with Friday's news), but that was a different team under different circumstances.
Paul's injury has not given the Warriors a reprieve. Houston needs to only win one more game in this series (with two chances to do it, one at home) and even without their star guard, they remain more than capable of fulfilling that requirement. Meanwhile, the Warriors are a team that's having an offensive identity crisis at the worst possible time.
These next two games will be turned into a referendum for many of the Warriors and the operation as a whole, but amid that scrutiny, the man under the most pressure to perform isn't Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant.
It's Steve Kerr.
Kerr is an exceptional coach when it comes to managing the responsibilities and personalities that come from having an exceptionally talented team _ that's not easy to do _ but his performance as a game manager over the last two games has been suspect.
We saw the Warriors run out of gas in the fourth quarter of Game 4 _ bizarre rotations and poor time management playing a big role in a 12-point fourth quarter and a tied series.
In Game 5, we saw a total shift in bench deployment _ David West played nearly a full quarter and Quinn Cook was on the floor in crunch time _ as well as a continuation of the Warriors' offensive woes, which manifested in the fourth quarter of the team's second-straight loss.
The loss of Andre Iguodala to a leg injury and the Rockets' nothing-to-lose physicality created a tricky situation for Kerr to manage over the last two games, no doubt, but it's hard to say that he's passed either test.
His biggest challenge is righting the Warriors' disjointed offense. That is his area of tactical expertise, after all. Golden State had one of the best offenses in NBA history this season, but over the last two contests, they've failed to average a point per possession. If that continues, the Warriors stand little-to-no chance to win this series.
So what did Kerr tell his team after Game 5?
"Well, there are things I tell you guys here, and there are things I tell my team that are private," Kerr said Friday.
Fair enough.
At the same time, Kerr is clearly talking to his team through the media _ pushing a message of relentless positivity amid the most trying moment this team, Durant in tow, has faced.
There's finding the silver linings in a loss, then there was Kerr's approach Thursday. If you had not watched Thursday's contest, you could have easily interpreted Kerr as saying "Yes, we're down 3-2, but we have the Rockets right where we want them" after the loss.
We'll see if that bold strategy pays dividends.
Regardless, the truth remains that the Warriors exhausted their margin for error in this series with Thursday's loss. They might not feel like they need any leeway _ that they are on the precipice of putting everything together against a team they can no longer consider a worthy adversary with Paul out of the picture, at least for the game _ but the fact that the Rockets missed 30 _ yes, 30 _ uncontested shots (per the NBA's tracking data) Thursday, with James Harden missing all 10 of his uncontested attempts, and still won, cannot be ignored.
The Warriors have banked on the Rockets' offensive inefficiency in recent contests, but it only takes a few extra uncontested Houston shots to fall for the Warriors' season to end.
That is if the Golden State offense doesn't break through.
It's upon Kerr to find a way to mesh the Warriors' offense, which currently looks like it's in a battle with itself over what it wants to be. It's a challenge that could go a long way to defining this team's legacy and his own.
In Games 4 and 5, Golden State appeared to have two diametrically opposed offenses, fighting for supremacy possession by possession. There was the Durant-is-the-fulcrum isolation game _ which advanced the Warriors to these Western Conference finals _ going up against the Warriors' traditional ball-movement attack, led by Stephen Curry.
It's easy to propose that the Warriors go all-in on a Curry-led attack _ it looked better in Game 5 _ but that's simply not possible. The Warriors need Durant and what he brings, too _ it's a perfect counter to Houston's defense.
But Durant's isolations have become predictable and direct to a fault. And juxtaposing that attack with the Warriors' ball-moving sets hasn't created a challenge for the Rockets' defense, it's merely created dysfunction for the Warriors.
"Last night wasn't his best game, but I thought he still carried us at times," Kerr said of Durant, who had zero assists in Game 5 and has only 10 in this series. "Houston's doing a great job defensively. They're doing what we do. When you switch everything, it makes ball movement more difficult, and it makes player movement more difficult. That's why you do it. That's why they've built the roster they have, and that's why we've built the roster we have. Everybody's saying why aren't you guys moving the ball? Well, it's good defense. So we're lucky we have Kevin, because Kevin is the ultimate answer against switching defenses. He's had a great series."
It's not on the players to figure this puzzle out as they go _ we've seen how that's gone over the last two games. Kerr was imploring Durant to trust his teammates in Game 5, but if that message resonated, it certainly didn't manifest in the contest.
It needs to in Game 6.
Kerr has earned a reputation as a great coach after winning two titles in his first four years. I'm not here to debate that. I will say, though, that at least part of Kerr's generally sterling reputation is on the line in Game 6, and, if the Warriors prevail, Game 7.
Somehow, someway, Kerr needs to find a balancing point in the Warriors offense allows the Warriors to maintain a steady energy while also utilizing Durant's elite one-on-one skills over the course of the next day.
If he can't, the Warriors will again be at the mercy of the Rockets and the presumptive NBA MVP, Harden, and this time, they might just take advantage.
