I don't know what Jon Gruden is doing.
All I know is that it's not working.
Then again, anyone with a rudimentary understanding of the game of football and the ability to discern the differences in numbers could tell you that whatever Gruden is doing isn't working.
I feel remiss in saying this in a Bay Area publication, but for the sake of the franchise _ for his own sake _ Gruden needs to stop worrying about Oakland and start worrying about Las Vegas.
Six weeks into the season, the Raiders are 1-5, and the only progress this team is showing week-over-week is the ability to make a bad situation worse.
It's time for Gruden to make big, bold changes.
It's time to stop pretending that this team is on the verge of figuring it all out.
It's time for him to admit that this season _ and probably next season too _ is a lost cause and to start thinking about how this team will look when they finally move into their new stadium a state over in 2020.
It's time for Gruden to openly admit _ without hedging _ that the Raiders are in a full-scale rebuild.
It's time to stop dancing around and blow the damn thing up.
Because if last week's loss to the Chargers was rock bottom, then Gruden's team found a way to drill down into the water table against the Seahawks in London.
The Raiders looked like a local English team brought in to scrimmage against the Seahawks on Sunday. The defense was manhandled, the offensive line was a sieve, Derek Carr was nearly pummeled into a fine powder, and the Seahawks leisurely strolled to a 27-3 win.
And the blame for all of that rests firmly on Gruden's shoulders.
The Raiders' performance on Sunday was repugnant enough to get a coach fired _ particularly when you pair it with last week's loss. Certainly, the Davis family has reacted stronger to less.
But Gruden isn't going to get fired. Not this year, at least. He has a 10-year contract that he intends to see out, and the subsequent full power of the team's roster that comes along with a big, fat contract like that.
We can argue if it's a good thing that Gruden has full control of football operations _ but we'd all be wasting our energy. This is the reality of the situation, and it isn't going to change anytime soon.
But if Gruden wants to make it to the end of that 10-year contract _ hell, if he wants to catch the back-loaded part of his deal and take advantage of Nevada's lack of state income tax _ he needs to start looking towards the future.
Because as much as Gruden has hinted that his team is rebuilding _ get this: his rhetoric and actions have not been totally aligned.
At the moment, Gruden is toeing the line between the present and the future _ much like the entire Raiders' organization.
The Raiders' roster is full of limited-upside veterans _ the kind of players that barely help you now and will almost certainly not help you in the future.
While cornerback Gareon Conley _ a 2017 first-round pick who is perhaps the most talented player on the Raiders' defensive roster _ stood on the sideline Sunday, Gruden and defensive coordinator Paul Gunther decided to give 32-year-old Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and 29-year-old Rahsaan Melvin his snaps.
What is the point of that?
And behind a bruised and battered offensive line, Gruden gave snap after snap _ at least in the first three quarters _ to Marshawn Lynch, who was unable to muster much of anything on the ground and is woefully deficient (and perhaps even counterproductive) as a pass catcher. Instead of trying out Jalen Richard as an every-down back, Gruden continues to trot out a running back whose style of play is nearly antithetical to the offense he has installed. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Raiders found themselves in third-and-long early and often Sunday _ on average, the Raiders had 8.5 yards to go on third downs against the Seahawks.
Why play Lynch so often _ even when it's clear he's not the right kind of back for the offense as currently constructed?
It probably has something to do with the fact that Marshawn is Oakland's favorite son.
The irony is that we know Gruden can look to the future. This entire season has been defined by a look at the future.
Gruden was certainly looking forward when he traded Khalil Mack for two first-round draft picks before the start of the season _ again, we can debate the merits of that trade all day, but, as I said at the time, it stands a chance to be a good deal for the Raiders _ the Las Vegas Raiders (There's a delineation there.)
And he was looking to the future when he named rookie Kolton Miller the team's starting left tackle in the preseason. That was a Vegas-aimed move, too.
The Raiders need more of that kind of thinking. If you're going to lose in embarrassing fashion, at least have a purpose behind it.
On Sunday morning, Jay Glazer reported that the Raiders were trying to move two players who have fallen out of favor with the coaching staff: safety Karl Joseph _ a Reggie McKenzie bust who can't see the field for Gruden _ and wide receiver Amari Cooper _ who has underperformed and is due a payday this upcoming offseason (he's set to play 2019 on his fifth-year option, worth $13.9 million against the cap).
Gruden shouldn't stop there though _ he should be looking to strip mine the whole Raiders' roster. If he doesn't like Conley, then he should move him _ leaving him on the bench isn't a positive move for the present or the future. Trade Jordy Nelson if you can get a good draft pick for him. Move some of the offensive linemen, too _ Gruden should see if anyone can take Gabe Jackson's contract off his hands. Move Lynch _ even if it's a bad public relations move _ and see if a contender wants tight end Jared Cook. If Gruden can procure a seventh-round pick for any of the Raiders' defensive veterans, he should take it. He should see if he can trade Carr, too. (Maybe Jacksonville would be interested.) And why not field offers on Guenther? The Raiders have certainly traded a coach before.
The trade deadline is Oct. 30, and Gruden should spend the team's upcoming bye week telling every other team in the NFL that he's having a fire sale and that everything must go by the end of the month.
(Again, we can debate if giving Gruden a bunch of draft picks is a good idea _ but Mark Davis seems to trust him, so it'd be a waste of our time.)
Then, after he liquidates, he should get as many young and second-chance (or third-chance) guys as he can to replace those recently departed players and spend the rest of the season evaluating talent for 2019 and beyond.
What's the downside? Attendance might go down in Oakland?
Who cares? The franchise is abandoning the city. Hell, they should have stayed in London _ they're just as likely to play their home games there as the East Bay in 2019.
Maybe they're worried about season ticket sales in Las Vegas. No one likes a loser, after all _ much less a fickle "city" like Vegas.
But I'd be more concerned about the team's lack of a unified plan sabotaging any chance this team is good once they officially arrive in the desert.
Yes, this start has been so bad that Gruden needs to start worrying about self-preservation, and the only way for him to do that is to cut his losses, face reality, and look steadfastly towards the future, present be damned.
Because as much as everyone would have liked to have seen the Raiders leave Oakland with some success, the writing is on the wall, ceiling, floors, windows, and molding _ it's not going to happen here.
It's time for Gruden to start playing the long game _ he's already lost the short one.
