OAKLAND, Calif. _ Warriors coach Steve Kerr won't flat-out say it, so I will: Stephen Curry is going to play in Game 2 of the Warriors and Pelicans' Western Conference semifinals series Tuesday night.
Curry is medically cleared to go, he's run through a couple of scrimmages over the last few days, and he looked unhindered by his left MCL during his post-practice shootaround at the Warriors' practice facility on Monday.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr called Curry "probable" for Tuesday's game against the Pelicans, but that's just a coach and a team being abundantly cautious ahead of Curry's return.
But the only way No. 30 not on the court Tuesday is if he suffers a whole new injury between now and tipoff.
Looking at it that way, I'd like to declare that I'm also "probable" for Tuesday's game. (And I, like Curry, will not be on a minutes restriction, either.)
"I'd be surprised if he did not play," Kerr said Monday, cutting through the manufactured tension.
So what does Curry's return mean for the Warriors?
Not much... For the series at hand.
After all, the Warriors played a near-perfect game against New Orleans on Saturday without Curry _ do that three more times and this series will end next weekend.
No, Curry's return is all about the big picture, because, in a twisted way, his return could be a detriment to the series at hand.
"It's exciting. I'm excited. I feel like a fan _ I can't wait to see him out there," Klay Thompson, who also didn't hedge, said of Curry's return Monday. "The mindset is about not relaxing. It's about staying locked in... Just because Steph is coming back doesn't mean we can relax. We were playing on edge since he's been gone because you can't really make up his production _ you gotta be even tighter because he can't bail us out.
"Just pretend like he _"
Like he's not there?
Thompson didn't need to catch himself, though I understand why he did. As Thompson explained, the Warriors want to maintain their tenacity and focus _ the things that helped them beat the Spurs and spearheaded their Game 1 win _ for Game 2, and frankly, that's hard to do when you're playing alongside Curry.
If the Warriors' light jog through the 2017-18 regular season taught us anything, it's that having three of the greatest shooters of all time on the same team can win you a lot of basketball games.
When Curry was on the court for the Warriors this year, Golden State averaged 1.24 points per possession _ an absurd number. When Curry and Durant were on the court at the same time, that number was even higher (and more absurd) _ 1.25. The Splash Brothers combo of Curry and Thompson was good for a cool 1.24, too.
Defense? Who needs to try hard on defense when you can drop 120 on anyone you please?
There's no team in the NBA that can match that kind of offensive production, and the Warriors rode that fact to a good chunk of their 58 wins this regular season.
Actually, scratch that _ there's is one team that comes close: Houston.
And in many ways, that's what Curry's Tuesday return is all about: The Rockets.
The Warriors don't need Curry to beat the Pelicans in an efficient manner _ Game 1 proved that _ but they will need him against the team's next probable playoff opponent, Houston.
(Is it in bad taste to look forward? Probably. But you saw the beat-down the Warriors put on New Orleans in Game 1, right? If you can think of any adjustments the Pelicans can make to tighten Game 2 and turn this into a series that goes more than five games, both I and Pellies coach Alvin Gentry are all ears.)
The Rockets have an all-time great offense, with presumptive MVP James Harden posting 1.18 points per possession when he was on the floor this season. The combination of him and Chris Paul brought Houston up to 1.23 points per possession.
And while Warriors' defense gives Golden State an advantage over Houston in the probable Western Conference Finals matchup, the Golden State offense will need to show up _ full force _ in that series as well if the Warriors plan to advance to their fourth-straight NBA Finals.
In the first six games of this postseason, without Curry, the Warriors have posted an effective field goal percentage of 53 and a true shooting percentage of 57.7 _ good, but not spectacular. In the regular season, those numbers were both three points higher, leading the league.
That's where the Warriors need to be heading into the next round.
And while Durant and Thompson are incredible players who have done a laudable job over the five-plus weeks Curry has been out, the only way to get back to those numbers is to have the greatest shooter in NBA history back on the floor.
So while the Warriors might have been tempted to give Curry some more time off the court _ to rest him a few more days _ given the team's performance in Game 1 without him, the sooner Curry can get onto the court, the sooner Curry can round into form.
"It's really about his rhythm," Kerr said. "The only factor in terms of allowing him to play is health, and he's ready to go. Now it's a question of rhythm and how much time we give him _ and that's important, he needs to get his groove back."
"I'm not too worried about it."
