For most of this match Cardiff looked set to tighten their grip on the Championship’s second automatic promotion spot but by the end Derby fans were crooning merrily about dreaming of a white Christmas.
That was a cheeky reference to the fact this game, originally scheduled for last month, had been postponed due to snow at an unseasonal but very convenient time for Derby, who were suffering from several injuries. Neil Warnock had vented his anger at that postponement, which came as his team hoped to go 10 points clear in second place. Now they are only one point ahead of third-place Fulham, with Aston Villa are also lurking dangerously.
“Well, I can’t blame the weather for the goals we conceded,” said the Cardiff manager sardonically after seeing his team defend with uncharacteristic sloppiness to allow Derby to score three times in the second half.
While casting doubt on Cardiff’s promotion hopes the result breathed new life into Derby’s, as two goals from Cameron Jerome either side of one by Matej Vydra lifted Gary Rowett’s side into the play-off places. At one point this season Derby looked a good bet to go up automatically but the way their challenge had dwindled in recent months led to Rowett suggesting the club is cursed.
“I was just trying to get myself out of the firing line by saying it was a curse,” admitted Rowett after this win. “It’s difficult to put your finger on why it’s happened five seasons in a row but until we can change it and get promoted that’s always going to be levelled at Derby.”
Premier League
Champions: Manchester City
Champions League: Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham are favourites for the top four with Chelsea five points behind Spurs in fifth.
Europa League: Arsenal are guaranteed a top-seven finish but could still reach the Champions League by winning the Europa League. Burnley are one win away from their first European campaign since 1967.
Relegation: West Brom are still eight points from safety after their draw with Liverpool. Stoke and Southampton both still have games against Swansea, five points clear of the bottom three. One more win should be enough for Crystal Palace, West Ham, Huddersfield and Brighton to avoid relegation.
Championship
Champions: Wolves
Automatic promotion: Fulham moved up to second after coming from behind to beat Sunderland, but Cardiff will be back in the Premier League if they beat both Hull and Reading in their last two games.
Play-offs: Aston Villa are heading for the play-offs with Middlesbrough and Derby leading the race to join them. Below them, Millwall, Brentford, Preston, Bristol City and Sheffield United are all still in with a chance.
Relegation: Sunderland are down after their defeat to Burton, who could leapfrog Bolton with victory on Saturday. Barnsley are sandwiched between those two and host Brentford this weekend. will look to take advantage whatever the result there as they host Brentford.
League One
Automatic promotion: Wigan and Blackburn (pictured) have sealed automatic promotion and will now battle for the title.
Play-offs: Shrewsbury and Rotherham, plus two from Charlton, Scunthorpe, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Bradford City.
Relegation: Bury are down while MK Dons have only a mathematical chance of survival. Northampton and Oldham are in the bottom two with Walsall, Rochdale and Wimbledon still in trouble.
League Two
Automatic promotion: Accrington Stanley and Luton Town are going up, with Stanley needing one more point to secure the title. Wycombe are third with Exeter City, Notts County and Lincoln fighting to overtake them.
Play-offs: The three who miss out will be joined by either Coventry or Mansfield; the Sky Blues have a three-point cushion.
Relegation: Chesterfield's 97-year Football League stay is over. Barnet are five points behind Grimsby and Morecambe and play the latter on Saturday.
National League: Macclesfield Town have secured the only automatic promotion spot, with one other team set to come up via the six-team play-offs. Tranmere, Sutton and Aldershot have all sealed their places.
It did not look like changing here when Callum Patterson gave Cardiff the lead in the 28th minute with a crisp volley after a cross from the left by Joe Bennett. Scott Carson, Derby’s goalkeeper, had barely had a meaningful touch up to that point but Cardiff nearly beat him again two minutes later when Junior Hoilett went close. The visitors might have also gone further ahead before half-time if the referee had blown for a penalty after the ball struck Bradley Johnson’s hand in the box. Cardiff were looking sturdy even if Derby’s pace on the break was a concern. By the hour Rowett had decided it was time for a new approach so cast on Vydra to forage behind Jerome.
Still the home team struggled to produce enough precision to unhinge the well-organised visitors. Gary Madine was guilty of inaccuracy, too, in the 65th minute, as he skewed a shot wide from nine yards after a Cardiff break.
The cost of that miss soon increased. Derby’s equaliser was surprisingly straightforward. After messy defending by the visitors, Richard Keogh sent a header into the box and Jerome held off Sean Morrison before diverting the ball past Etheridge from six yards.
Vydra completed the turnaround by lashing into the net from 12 yards after a cut-back by Wisdom. Jerome made sure of the result in the last minute, pestering Morrison into another mistake before shooting past Etheridge. They now face a trip to Aston Villa on Saturday and their final game is at home to Barnsley.
“That [defending] is not like us,” said Warnock, whose last two games are at Hull and home to Reading. “It’s a match we should have won but, as I said to the players, every team in the league apart from Wolves would love to be where we are. And at least we know what we have to do now: win the last two games.”
No one is more experienced than Warnock at navigating through nervy run-ins. He is aiming for his eighth promotion in a managerial career spanning more than three decades. When he achieved his first by leading Scarborough out of the Conference in 1987, Rowett was still coming to grips with secondary school.
After this result there is still a chance of them being classed together in next season’s Premier League. “The run we were on has been incredibly deflating but we’ve retained belief and this win is a massive boost for us,” said Rowett.
