Despite facing tough challenges in the March 24 election, the Democrat Party will most likely still dominate in the South, the camp's long-standing stronghold, according to political pundits.
Lanyin Sae-lee, a 100-year-old resident of Yala, is supported by officers as she arrives at a polling station in Suratthani School in Muang district of Surat Thani yesterday. Supapong Chaolan
There are 50 MP seats up for grabs in the region, down from 53 in the last poll when the party raked in 50 MPs.
Several parties appear to threaten Democrat dominance this time. They are the Prachachart, Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath (PPRP), Ruam Palang Prachachart Thai and Future Forward (FFP) parties.
"The Democrats will be No.1 for sure," conceded Najmuddin Umar, spokesman and a party-list candidate for the Prachachart Party. "We have to be honest about that."
Nevertheless, he stressed that his party is still pinning its hopes on success in the five southernmost provinces. There are 11 MP seats up for grab in Narathiwat, Pattani, Songkhla, Satun and Yala.
"I believe we will gain more than half of the seats in these provinces," said Mr Najmuddin, who appealed to authorities to maintain their political impartially.
Meanwhile, an opinion poll in the 14 southern provinces yielded a surprising result.
The survey, in which Prince of Songkla University questioned 1,431 respondents in the South in February, revealed that 27% believed southerners would vote for the FFP, trailed by 24% for the Democrats, 19% for Pheu Thai, 12% for the PPRP, 8% for Prachachart, 4% for Bhumjaithai and 3% for Ruam Palang Prachachart Thai.
When asked which party they would choose, 66% said they had not yet decided.
Regarding who they would like to see become the next prime minister, 41% said they had not yet decided.
But 16% chose FFP leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, followed by Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva (12%), Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, also a prime ministerial candidate for the PPRP, (10%), and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, a prime ministerial candidate for Pheu Thai (8%).
Responding to the poll, which indicated that the FFP could prevail in the South, Mr Najmuddin said it was impossible, noting that more than half of the respondents had said they were undecided.
"The FFP is likely only to rake in the fourth highest number of votes," he said.
Nipit Intarasombat, deputy Democrat leader and an MP candidate for Phatthalung, said the party has been trying to create public understanding that a single ballot is now being used for both constituency and party-list MPs.
In this election, at least 30 candidates are vying for an MP seat in each southern constituency and their campaigns for votes have intensified in recent weeks, he noted.
Mr Nipit also said he had been informed that someone was asking the locals to present their identification cards and have photos taken.
About 40,000-50,000 people had photos taken of their cards in each constituency of Phatthalung, he said, adding it was likely that those who took the pictures were assigned to control the voters.
"I have lodged a complaint about this with the Election Commission," said Mr Nipit.
He said the move was likely to affect voters as it was found in the opinion poll that a huge number of respondents said they had not decided who they would vote for.
He said some southern constituencies might be won by other parties but the Democrats still expected to gain at least 40 seats.
He said the party's main competitors in the three southernmost provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala are the PPRP, Bhumjaithai and Prachachart, although Ruam Palang Prachachart Thai also poses a threat. "These parties could gain 1-2 MPs each," Mr Nipit said.
Sukhum Nuansakul, a political analyst and former rector of Ramkhamhaeng University, agreed with Mr Nipit, saying the Democrats would win around 40 constituencies with the Bhumjaithai and Prachachart parties possibly also taking some seats.
