Having suffered a humiliating defeat in the March 24 elections, the Democrat Party appears to arrived at a point where it has to make an important decision about which political path it wants to follow -- whether to join the pro-Prayut Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP)'s coalition alliance, or to play the role of an independent opposition.
The party is now torn between the two paths, with one group led by prospective MP Thaworn Senneam which favours an alliance with the PPRP, while the other -- mostly younger Democrats -- preferring to become an independent opposition.
Mr Thaworn called an informal meeting of about 30 party members, including the party's chief adviser Chuan Leekpai and some prospective MPs, at the party's head office last Friday to discuss the matter.
After the meeting, he told the media that most participants want to work with the PPRP in the next government so the party's policies can be implemented, as they believe that won't be possible if the party decides to opt out.
Mr Chuan, however, clarified later that this contentious issue has to be decided by the party's acting executive committee -- which has yet to discuss the matter.
He also reprimanded Mr Thaworn for being over-enthusiastic and jumping the gun.
Former party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was not invited to Friday's meeting with Mr Thaworn, prefers the party to play the role of a independent opposition, in line with the stance he declared shortly before March 24 -- that it would not support Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to be the next prime minister.
But a few others, like Warong Dechgitvigrom -- the whistle-blower who exposed the rice-pledging scandal under Yingluck's government -- have said they want the party to back Gen Prayut.
So, what will happen if the Democrats decide -- by a resolution of its acting executive committee -- to play the role of an independent opposition?
This will shatter the PPRP's attempt to form a coalition government, because even with the support of the Bhumjaithai Party and the backing the junta's handpicked 250 senators, the coalition will not have a simple majority in the House.
If that scenario plays out, PPRP will need the support from the so-called "cobras", or defectors from other smaller parties which have announced their support for the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai coalition.
While Pheu Thai and its allies have the upper hand when it comes to forming a coalition and dominating the House, its coalition, at best, will only command a narrow majority which is still short of the minimum of 376 votes it needs from both the House and the Senate to get its prime ministerial candidate approved by parliament.
In short, they also won't be able to proceed and form the next government because the parliament will not agree to appoint their candidate as the next prime minister.
As such, the political scene will even be more riddled with uncertainties, with the two competing sides unable to form a government, and I believe our readers can guess what all of these mess will lead to.
Thailand's volatile stock exchange will become the first casualty, as foreign investors begin to panic and shift their focus elsewhere.
So, how will the country be administered without a post-election government?
The answer is that it will be run by the current government, with Gen Prayut as the chief executive which -- according to the current constitution -- is not an interim government, but a fully-functional government that can disburse budgets and approve reshuffles among other things.
It appears that the writers of this constitution, led by Meechai Ruchupan, were smart enough to ensure that Gen Prayut can run the country as per usual after the elections.
But they seem to have failed to foresee the scenario that will emerge if the Democrats refuse to join hands with the PPRP and its allies.
One possible -- albeit, desperate -- option is for the PPRP-led coalition to push ahead, get the parliament to appoint Gen Prayut as the prime minister, and then form a minority government. This move will likely result in political chaos, once the its first crucial bill fails to sail through the Pheu Thai-dominated House.
In such a scenario, Gen Prayut can choose to resign, or dissolve the House and call a snap election.
The mess, however, will re-emerge if both camps fail to win a commanding majority yet again -- especially if Pheu Thai's coalition fails to secure at least 376 seats in the 500-seat House -- that it needs to outvote the Senate when parliament moves to approve the prime ministerial candidate.
Is it impossible to avoid this mess?
To answer that, the Democrat Party will have to think hard about all the possible consequences of its decision, although it will likely to keep claiming that the outcomes are beyond their control and not their fault in the first place.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.
