Democrats are expected to provide the necessary votes to reopen the government and keep the Department of Homeland Security funded for two weeks, multiple senior lawmakers tell Axios.
Why it matters: That is sure to infuriate progressives and grassroots groups who have demanded the lawmakers keep the agency shut down as leverage to force drastic changes at ICE and Customs and Border Protection.
- Members of the liberal group MoveOn are "calling offices and sending letters" urging them to use their leverage, a spokesperson told Axios.
- But many Democrats are wary of letting DHS funding lapse, citing their districts' need for disaster relief funding and the fact that the DHS stopgap is meant to facilitate negotiations on compromise ICE reforms.
- "Yeah, it's a leverage tool that people are giving up," House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), who has argued forcefully for voting to keep the government funded, told Axios.
State of play: The House is set to vote Tuesday on the package, which would fund the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Labor, Treasury and State until September.
- The package would only fund DHS for another two weeks, however, in order to give the White House and Senate Democrats more time to negotiate ICE and CBP reforms in response to the killing of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents in Minnesota.
- Democrats closed ranks against a GOP procedural motion, known as a "rule," to advance the funding bill to the floor — but many are expected to vote for the bill on final passage now that Republicans passed a "rule" on Tuesday.
- That will likely be necessary to pass the bill, as several dozen Republicans are likely to defect and vote against the bill on final passage.
What we're hearing: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in a closed-door caucus meeting Tuesday morning, did not offer guidance on how he plans to vote on final passage, according to multiple sources in the room.
- He said leadership is a "strong no" on the rule — a fact that Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) stressed at a subsequent press conference — but is not whipping members either way on the bill itself.
- DeLauro argued in favor of voting for the bill in the meeting, while Reps. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) and Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) argued against it, sources said.
What we're hearing: Several House Democrats predicted the vote could split the party roughly down the middle, with potentially only a slight majority of the caucus voting against the package.
- One lawmaker deeply involved in the process told Axios that, no matter how many votes Republicans lose, there are almost certainly enough Democratic votes to make up for it.
- The base "may" get upset about the vote initially but "that'll go away," one lawmaker told Axios, because "then you're going to have the real fight for two weeks."
Yes, but: Coming out of the Tuesday morning caucus meeting, several lawmakers said they felt more Democrats would ultimately come down against the bill.
- "The mood in the room seems like most people are going to be a 'no,'" said one House Democrat.
- Another told Axios: "There are a lot of people who are saying we can't wait to have this conversation to demand change. And it's not just progressives."
- Several moderate Democrats in battleground districts told Axios they are either a 'no' or undecided on the bill.
Between the lines: Several Democratic leaders argued that funding the rest of the government while leaving DHS's long-term funding up in the air allows the party to focus their messaging on alleged ICE abuses.
- Said DeLauro: "I believe this is an opportunity to isolate DHS and go at it with hammer and tongs ... rather than having to figure out what the heck is going to happen to five other bills, all those departments, when there is unbelievable bipartisan, bicameral support on those bills."
- Aguilar said at his press conference that Democrats "have more opportunities for leverage" and that DHS may still shut down in 10 days if "real reform" doesn't materialize.
The bottom line: For others, it's simply about disaster relief.
- Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), the former House majority whip who has also argued in favor of the bill — and whose district is highly vulnerable to hurricanes — exclaimed to reporters: "FEMA is in that bill!"
Axios' Kate Santaliz contributed reporting.
Editor's note: This article has been updated after Republicans passed a "rule."
