One candidate got arrested and then sued an ally of President Donald Trump in response. Another ran an ad depicting a shirtless AI image of him fighting Trump in a boxing ring. A third has faced attacks over past campaign donations from a PAC linked to Trump’s onetime “first buddy,” Elon Musk.
Such is this year’s Democratic primary for New Jersey’s open governorship: a six-way race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy a year after the Garden State shifted 10 points to the right in the most recent presidential election.
Tuesday’s primary represents one of the biggest tests for Democrats as they look to reset after a disappointing 2024 for the party. The November general election will be closely watched as a potential barometer of how voters feel about the new Trump administration and full Republican control of Washington.
New Jersey and Virginia are the two states that hold statewide executive elections the year after a presidential election. These off-year contests can also offer a preview of what messages are resonating with voters ahead of the midterm elections.
Historical trends suggest Democrats could hold the advantage in this year’s elections, as voters will often buck the party in power in Washington. But that would also require New Jerseyans to buck a separate trend in the Garden State, where Murphy is wrapping up his second term: No party has held the governor’s mansion for three consecutive elections since the 1960s.
In Virginia, which is set to hold its primaries a week after New Jersey, both parties have presumptive gubernatorial nominees who don’t face primary opposition: Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears.
New Jersey Republicans, meanwhile, will also pick their nominee next week. However, that contest could have a more predictable outcome: Former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Murphy four years ago, has secured Trump’s endorsement, giving him an advantage over a five-way field.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the New Jersey governor’s race Lean Democratic.
Tuesday’s election also marks the first gubernatorial primary in New Jersey since a federal judge struck down the so-called “party line,” which gave preferable ballot placement to candidates backed by county party organizations. Many of those groups have still made endorsements in the race, setting up a test of how impactful that support will be under the new ballot design.
According to an AdImpact analysis, the gubernatorial race is already the most expensive election in New Jersey history, with ad spending crossing $85 million as of Wednesday. Trump has been a consistent theme in ads, being mentioned in 70 percent of all broadcast spots aired, the analysis found.
That’s a shift from an April Wisconsin Supreme Court race in which Trump was mentioned in just 5 percent of broadcast ads, AdImpact found.
The Democrats
Two House members from North Jersey are vying for the Democratic nomination this year: Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer. Joining them are the mayors of the state’s two largest cities: Ras Baraka of Newark and Steve Fulop of Jersey City; Sean Spiller, the president of the state’s largest teachers union; and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.
Limited publicly released polling has shown Sherrill, the only woman in the field, leading her primary opponents, albeit with a large number of undecided Democrats. In a memo posted this week, Sherrill’s campaign manager, Alex Ball, wrote that the four-term congresswoman was “poised for victory.”
Several rivals or their allies have attacked Sherrill on the airwaves over past campaign donations made to her House campaign by a corporate PAC associated with SpaceX, the private aerospace company founded by Musk, who has emerged as a popular Democratic boogeyman. Sherrill has donated $24,000 of those contributions to a food bank, according to federal campaign filings.
“The lying negative ads against Mikie Sherrill are a desperate attempted-smear campaign,” Ball wrote in her memo. “Why? Because everyone knows, Mikie Sherrill is the Democrat Republicans fear.”
In her campaign, Sherrill has highlighted her background as a Navy helicopter pilot and former federal prosecutor, as well as her role as a mother of four, similar to when she first ran for Congress in 2018 and flipped a Republican-held seat.
Gottheimer, who also flipped a GOP seat when he was first elected to the House, has emphasized his plans to cut taxes, which has been a focus throughout his five terms in the chamber.
His campaign manager, Chelsea Brossard, wrote in a May 21 memo that Gottheimer was “the only candidate with a plan to make life more affordable for Jersey families, he’s laser-focused on getting it done, and he has the experience necessary to make it happen.”
The AdImpact analysis found that Gottheimer had “received the most ad backing in the contest, with nearly one in every four dollars spent on primary ads supporting his candidacy” as of Wednesday.
Baraka, who has pitched himself as the most progressive candidate in the field, made national headlines last month after he was briefly arrested for trespassing after a confrontation with federal authorities outside an immigration detention facility in Newark. On Monday, he filed a lawsuit against Trump counselor Alina Habba, the interim U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey, in response to his arrest.
“I’m not doing this for vengeance,” Baraka said at a news conference. “They don’t have the right to violate people’s individual rights, their Democratic rights.”
Fulop, meanwhile, is the only candidate to have already named a running mate — something not usually done until a nominee is chosen. In April, he announced his choice of South Orange Mayor Sheena Collum, who described Fulop as a “fellow nerd” and “fellow policy wonk.”
The Republicans
On the Republican side, Ciattarelli, whose 3-point loss to Murphy in 2021 took many by surprise, has Trump’s endorsement despite the former assemblyman’s past criticism of the president.
Trump held a telephone rally to support Ciattarelli earlier this week.
“New Jersey is ready to pop out of that blue horror show and really get in there and vote for somebody that’s going to make things happen,” the president said on the call, according to The Associated Press.
Ciattarelli faces opposition from four other Republicans on Tuesday: radio host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac and contractor Justin Barbera. But Ciattarelli has already begun looking ahead to November.
After House Republicans passed their budget reconciliation bill last month, he sparred with Sherrill on social media, arguing that her opposition to the measure was a vote against tax relief, referring to a provision that would raise the cap on the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction, a top issue in blue states with higher tax burdens.
“Because her top priority as governor isn’t NJ taxpayers, it’s proving how much she hates Donald Trump,” Ciattarelli wrote. “Frankly, it’s disqualifying.”
Sherrill, in turn, called the reconciliation bill a “disaster” and said the SALT cap provision “continues to double tax NJ families.”
“I opposed Trump’s assault on New Jersey and you are a yes-man for the MAGA agenda,” she wrote to Ciattarelli on X.
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