Why did Messner climb without oxygen? Why did Heyerdahl cross the ocean on a raft? Sometimes it’s cooler to do things the hard way. The Democrats seem to understand this. With 12 days to go until the midterm elections, there are still many paths for the Democrats to retain their Senate majority. Those paths are just looking increasingly dramatic – through reddish states like Georgia and Kansas, instead of bluish states like Colorado and Iowa or New Hampshire. But how much cooler will it be, for them, if they pull it off?
Today’s number to know
Two. That’s the number of major public polls released in the last 24 hours showing the Republican senatorial candidate with an edge in Colorado. As Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight points out, Colorado is cruxy.
Colorado’s place at the center of the political universe seems to be secure this year. The Senate race between Mark Udall and Republican Cory Gardner has been one of the most competitive for most of campaign season.
That’s why the strength of Gardner in recent polls has been so important in our Senate forecast, which currently gives Republicans a 66% of securing a majority.
Here’s more on the state of the race:
A morning must-read from my colleague Ed Pilkington (@EdPilkington), on how state Republican leaders have advanced voter restriction laws that would tilt the electorate toward the Republican party. Here’s a snippet:
The Scott versus Crist race is perhaps the most glaring example of a nationwide trend that is bearing down on the mid-term elections, now just two weeks away. Republican leaders have exposed themselves to the charge of conflict of interest over the past four years by introducing a raft of restrictive voting rules across 22 states that place hurdles in the way of would-be voters, particularly from Democratic-leaning backgrounds.
-
How voter-friendly is your state? (A superlative Guardian interactive)
-
Should the Poor Be Allowed to Vote? (Peter Beinart in the Atlantic)
Doing it the hard way
The Democrats announced Wednesday they are pouring big new money – “high six figures,” an apparatchik tells the Washington Post – into the Senate race in Kentucky, where would-be majority leader Mitch McConnell is facing Alison Lundergan Grimes. Kentucky went for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by 22 points in 2012. (Incidentally, Romney won by the same margin in Kansas, where Democrats are also hoping for victory.)
A DSCC official confirms they are going back on the air in #KYSEN. They see the race tightening w/ undecided voters breaking towards Grimes.
— Shushannah Walshe (@shushwalshe) October 22, 2014
- George Will: Restoration of Senate’s dignity rides on Mitch McConnell. The restoration. Of the Senate’s dignity. Rides on. Mitch McConnell.
And then there’s Georgia, where Michelle Nunn, the Democratic daughter of Congressional superhero Sam Nunn, is showing real brio against Republican David Perdue (with a name like that, heh, etc):
Polling lately has looked good for Democrats in Georgia, but it's also on the verge of becoming a "must win" state instead of Dems' Plan B.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2014
But some Democrats are starting to cast nervous glances toward New Hampshire, where incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen had seemed to hold a steady lead against cross-border dreamboat Scott Brown. A new PPP poll continues to tell that story, with Shaheen up 49-45. But a New England College poll finds Brown with a one-point, 48-47 edge.
And some close observers are feeling tremors:
If you can "feel" a change in a state this one is it @politicalwire: Brown Just Ahead in Tight Race http://t.co/V94f6FjzSh #nhsen
— SalenaZito (@SalenaZitoTrib) October 22, 2014
As for Colorado, Enten dismisses Democratic attempts to in turn dismiss the latest public polls. Enten concludes:
The polls and the fundamentals tell the same basic story: An unpopular incumbent is losing in a purple state against a decent candidate in a slightly Republican-leaning year. That’s a pretty believable story.
It's not just TV ads some Colorado voters are sick of! pic.twitter.com/zzZ1bhkwsy
— Scott Bland (@HotlineScott) October 22, 2014
News leaked that Kentucky senator Rand Paul has summoned his minions to Washington as soon as the midterms are over to discuss a possible presidential bid. Last night Paul was barnstorming through the barn state on behalf of Senate hopeful Joni Ernst:
Heckuva a crowd in Iowa City to see Joni and Sen Rand Paul! #iasen #IowaKnowsBest pic.twitter.com/8d5aiyh56U
— gretchen hamel (@DCgretchen) October 23, 2014
Off-piste
There was another fence jumper last night at the White House. He was attacked by secret service dogs, which he slammed and punched, sending two to the vet. A White House statement said the suspect was an unarmed 23-year-old from Maryland.
The revolutionary 2014 midterm election will not be televised:
Incredible chart. http://t.co/h6RxrNlGFA pic.twitter.com/p3oYageLSU
— Elliott Schwartz (@elliosch) October 22, 2014
Trail running
Hillary Clinton is in New York City this morning to rally with Governor Andrew Cuomo – whose chances are looking decent. Later she’s due in Minnesota.
Michelle Obama travels to Colorado today to stump for Udall.
Whither the Senate
It’s still looking good for the GOP. The average probability of Republicans taking the Senate, according to three top elections modelers (538, the New York Times and HuffPost Pollster), is 65% – down just more than a point from a day before.
Interestingly, there’s disagreement here about the momentum of the race. Two of the models – NYT and 538 – increased their odds of a GOP Senate takeover. The third model, however, HuffPost Pollster, shows the chances of Republican victory declining relatively steeply, to 62%.
Ad watch
Republican Senate hopeful Joni Ernst in Iowa does not know how to make a bad campaign ad. (See previous.) All you need are pigs and entendre.
If you love polls
Colorado Senate: Gardner 47, Udall 45 – Ipsos/Reuters
Colorado Senate: Gardner 46, Udall 39 – Suffolk University/USA Today
New Hampshire Senate: Shaheen 49, Brown 45 – PPP
New Hampshire Senate: Brown 48, Shaheen 47 – New England College / NH1
New Hampshire Governor: Hassan 51, Havenstein 43 – New England College / NH1
Georgia Senate: Nunn 46, Perdue 44 – SurveyUSA
Kentucky Senate - McConnell 49, Grimes 41 – Voter/Consumer Research
Wisconsin Governor: Burke 49, Walker 48 – Rasmussen
Iowa Senate: Ernst 47, Braley 46 – Monmouth University
Michigan Senate: Peters 51, Land 38 – Mitchell Research/Fox 2 Detroit
Massachusetts Governor: Baker 41, Coakley 40 – MassINC/WBUR
Minnesota Senate: Franken 53, McFadden 38 – SurveyUSA
Oregon Senate: Merkley 53, Wehby 32 – SurveyUSA
Debate alert
Massachusetts governor’s debate, pitting Republican Charlie Baker and Democrat Martha Coakley. This race is Schick-close. Watch it at 8pm ET on wwlp.com.
South Dakota senate debate, pitting Republican Mike Rounds, Democrat Rick Weiland and Independent Larry Pressler. Also an exciting one. Catch it on the PBS website at 9pm ET.
Iowa 4th Congressional District Debate, incumbent Representative Steve King (R-IA) and Jim Mowrer (D). Catch it at 8pm ET on C-Span.
Obama approval rating
The president’s job approval rating in Gallup’s daily tracking is at 41%, up a promising point from a day earlier. His disapproval rating held steady at 54%.
Featured reads
At Nearly $4 Billion, the Most Expensive Midterms Ever – New York Times
Will Democrats’ ground game save their Senate majority? We asked an expert. – Washington Post
Midterm Candidates Distancing Selves From United States – Onion
Is your daily consumption of political news harming your ability to love your country? Well, here’s a picture of a newborn lamb in Yellowstone National Park, brought to you by the Department of the Interior:
Let's end the day with this cute photo! New-born lamb @YellowstoneNPS by Andriana Puchany #nature pic.twitter.com/K5R6HyRsA6
— US Dept of Interior (@Interior) October 22, 2014
