A new poll shows finds that Democrats have an early edge heading into the 2026 midterm elections in the minority party’s bid to wrest control of the House of Representatives back from Republicans.
A YouGov/The Economist survey took place between August 1-4 and polled 1702 US adult citizens. The generic ballot is a barometer that shows just whether voters would prefer voting for a Democrat or Republican.
As of this week, 43.7 percent of voters intend to vote for Democrats in the midterms and 38.4 percent prefer to vote for Republicans.
The differences are even more pronounced when it comes to independent voters, as 38.2 percent said they intend to vote for Democrats while only 26 percent of them plan to vote for Republicans.
Historically, the president’s party loses at least one chamber in Congress during a midterm election, and flips some governorships or state legislatures. With the president off the ballot, voters register their satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the president’s job performance at the midterms.
The Economist/YouGov poll showed a majority of 55 percent of voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance while 41 percent approve of it, with 12 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2024 disapproving of his job performance.
Around the same time in 2017, 39.6 percent of voters planned to vote for the Democrats and 33.3 percent planned to vote for the Republicans. In 2018, Democrats would win back the the House of Representatives as they made a net gain of 40 seats.
Democrats also have a significant advantage with young people. After young people, driven largely by young men, swung significantly to the right in 2024, 50.8 percent of voters younger than 30 said they intend to vote for Democrats, compared to only 21.8 percent who said they intend to vote for Republicans.
Voters between 18 and 29 range disapprove of Trump’s performance on the economy, with only 29 percent approving and 60 percent disapproving. They also do not approve of how he’s handling inflation and prices, with 68 percent disapproving.
Republicans also seem to be losing their grip on Hispanics voters, as 42.8 percent of Hispanic voters said that they intend to vote for Democrats.
That’s slightly lower than the 47.3 percent of Hispanic voters who said the same thing during the first week of August in 2017, which preceded huge Hispanic turnout in the 2018 midterm election, but still significant.
Hispanic voters largely disapprove of Trump’s performance on the economy, with 55 percent disapproving and only 38 percent approving.
They are also not fans of his immigration policies, with 60 percent of Hispanic voters disapproving and only 35 percent approving.
Trump has ramped up his attacks on Hispanics, particularly after he sent the US National Guard into Los Angeles without the consent of the state’s Democratic Gov Gavin Newsom to quell protests against against Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Across the board, voters oppose his handling of health care, with 57 percent of voters disapproving of it. This comes a momth after Trump signed his signature “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” that included steep cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.
Democrats hope to retake the House of Representatives next year. But Republicans hope to shore up their majorities. In Texas, Republicans elected to call a special session to redraw congressional lines in the middle of the decade, which prompted Democrats to decamp to blue states.
