A civil war is brewing between two heavy-hitting Democratic super PACs in the run-up to the next presidential election.
Why it matters: The battle will help determine how hundreds of millions of dollars are spent in the 2028 campaign.
- It also represents a divide among Democrats over how best to reach voters — whether to emphasize highly tested TV and digital ads aimed at a broad audience, or a more instinctual, risk-taking approach in an effort to break through online.
Zoom in: The dominant Democratic super PAC, Future Forward, and its affiliates raised over $900 million in the race for the White House last cycle — and spent much of it on rigorously tested TV ads.
- Some top party officials believe Future Forward's leaders don't have sufficient campaign experience and weren't responsive enough to the Harris campaign's directions in 2024 because they were so certain of their strategy.
- There also has been frustration about the uber-secretive Future Forward operates — including how much its leaders are paid.
Another liberal super PAC, the digital-focused Priorities USA, is looking to take advantage of that discontent and knock Future Forward off its pedestal.
- Priorities USA and its affiliated arms were the party's favored groups in the 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections. But they told Axios they raised just $56 million last cycle — down from $258 million in 2020 — after being effectively sidelined by the Biden White House last year.
- Priorities USA is calling on the Democratic Party to change its approach to super PACs and the internet with an improved digital strategy that accounts for how a growing number of Americans receive political messages.
The group also is making the case to donors and party officials that Democrats should stop anointing a single super PAC as the top destination for party contributors in presidential races — a thinly veiled shot at Future Forward.
- "We no longer should be relying on one super PAC to determine spending decisions for the entire ecosystem," Priorities USA executive director Danielle Butterfield said in a statement.
- "It's a gross underutilization of the expertise that exists within different organizations and super PACs across the party apparatus."
Priorities USA told Axios it's expanding its team, bringing on former Pennsylvania Rep. Conor Lamb as a strategic adviser. Lamb said he'll promote the group's vision on digital advertising to elected officials, donors and labor unions.
- The group also has been holding Zoom trainings with donors to help them assess digital media programs, according to a memo Axios obtained — an effort likely aimed at breaking Future Forward's monopoly on big funders.
Between the lines: Priorities USA is trying to stage a comeback after being snubbed by Biden's team last year.
- After three presidential elections in which the group was the party's chosen super PAC, top Biden adviser Anita Dunn surprised top Democrats by blessing Future Forward for 2024.
Future Forward's allies argue that its analytics-driven approach — rigorously testing ads to determine which are the most persuasive — ensures that donors' funds are being spent wisely.
- In response to questions about Future Forward's leaders, an adviser to the group said its senior leadership has worked with 25 of the top advertising agencies in Democratic politics and included people from every presidential campaign since 2012.
- The group's supporters say its ads had an impact in 2024, even if they weren't enough to get Harris across the finish line.
- Future Forward's backers say it spent somewhat more in independent expenditures in 2020 than Priorities USA, even when the latter was the party's preferred PAC — a sign that donors saw the quality of Future Forward's work.
Zoom out: Super PACs can spend an unlimited amount of money on campaigns, but they are legally barred from coordinating directly with candidates.
- A large field of Democratic candidates is expected in 2028, so the primary season could be competitive for several months — making the debate over super PACs particularly critical because the outside groups will need to get up and running quickly for the general election.
The super PACs already are staking out their opening positions in the battle.
- For Priorities USA, that means calling on Democrats to change their approach to super PACs and the internet: "The Democratic Party today is still treating super PACs as vehicles for broadcast message distribution, despite the fact that the media landscape has completely shifted to individualized, always-on digital consumption," Butterfield said.
- Future Forward, meanwhile, sent a memo to donors shortly after the 2024 election about the group's efforts to gear up for the next presidential campaign.
