A decision on whether to reduce the self-isolation period for people who test positive with Covid is set to be made tomorrow.
Officials are to meet at the government’s Covid-O committee, at which they are expected to discuss cutting the self-isolation period from seven days to five days.
According to The Times, ministers have already decided to give the green light to the change in policy, concluding it is a risk worth taking now that the Omicron wave is starting to ease.
The UK government has previously denied it was looking at such an approach – but the number of staff now self-isolating with Covid is putting significant pressure on services and appears to have forced a change in tone among ministers.
"We are certainly looking at reducing the isolation period and hope to bring you more about that as fast as possible,” Boris Johnson said during Wednesday’s PMQs.
However, scientists warned that ministers would be “shooting themselves in the foot” if they decide to cut the self-isolation period from seven to five days.
Modelling from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that one in three people – 31 per cent – are still infectious five days after first testing positive for Covid. In contrast, just one in six – 16 per cent – are able to pass on the virus to others by the seventh day of self-isolation.
Professor Christina Pagel, director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London (UCL), said the finding “pretty much rules out” adopting a five-day isolation period.
Professor Irene Petersen, an epidemiologist at UCL, warned that ministers might “shoot themselves in the foot if they go for five days”.
“If you release people after five days you gain a certain percentage of the workforce, but if a third is still infectious you may end up losing a greater number of people as a result.
“However, they may just be so desperate to bring people back as soon as possible right now that they don’t care whether it might result in a larger proportion being ill in a few weeks.”
Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said cutting the self-isolation period to five days was a “decision that has been driven largely by policy rather than by public health”.
The UKHSA modelling also showed that only 5 per cent of people with Covid are still infectious after 10 full days of self-isolation.
Speaking on Tuesday, the prime minister’s official spokesman said the government was “gathering the latest evidence” on whether the isolation period could be cut to five days.
“We want to keep this under review, make sure we have the right approach, you know we moved from 10 to seven,” he said. “But what we're absolutely not doing is prejudging anything. The prime minister hasn't received formal advice either way yet. So, we'll await that and then make a decision.”
