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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Tom McCarthy (now) and Scott Bixby (earlier) in New York

Clinton delivers poised showing as Trump forced on the defensive in first debate – as it happened

Clinton hits back after Trump attacks her ‘stamina’ at debate

Summary

The first presidential debate is in the can. Here’s a summary of what happened:

  • Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump engaged in an occasionally raw series of clashes on topics from trade policy to the Iran deal to Trump’s taxes.
  • The Republican candidate came out swinging on Nafta and on, he said, his Democratic rival’s failed record of public service. His most aggressive attacks had Clinton appealing to “fact checkers” instead of offering rebuttals.
  • Clinton’s performance was magisterial. She slipped easily into the details of many policy areas – cyber warfare, community policing, paid family leave – that Trump could not touch.
  • Clinton also scored the biggest moment of wit, at the end of a long Trump boast about his temperament, which he delivered hotly. “Whew, OK!” she said when he was through, smiling.
  • Clinton flayed Trump on his refusal to release his tax returns, on his “long record” of “racist behavior,” on his lack of knowledge about the deal to withdraw US troops from Iraq, on climate change being a Chinese “hoax,” and on and on. But his best line was: “Hillary’s got experience but it’s bad experience.”
  • Clinton’s best line (apart from “whew, OK!”): “I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate. And yes I did. And you know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president. And that’s a good thing.”
  • Clinton’s runner-up best line, in reply to a Trump charge that “we don’t have the money because it’s been squandered on your ideas”, was: “Maybe it’s because you haven’t paid your taxes!”
  • There were lots of manterruptions. Trump also had the sniffles.
  • Trump lost altitude quickly after the first half hour, shifting from pointed interruptions to a more incoherent, sloppy pattern of interruption.
  • Trump tried to deny five years of spreading birtherism – the conspiracy theory that Barack Obama was born outside the US. Clinton replied sharply: “It can’t be dismissed that easily ... He has a long record in engaging in racist behavior.”
  • Trump cast doubt on the notion that the hacking of the Democratic National Committee was Russia-backed. He said it may have been China, or bizarrely, a “400lb person sitting on their bed”.
  • Clinton said neighborhood security would come from community policing and getting guns off streets while Trump called for “law and order” and “stop-and-frisk”.
  • Clinton poked fun at Trump’s unlimited indictment of her record. “I have a feeling that by the end of this evening everything is going to be my fault,” she said. Then Trump agreed with her.
  • Clinton launched a last-minute attack on Trump for his insults of women. She introduced the world to Alicia Machado, a beauty pageant contestant who said Trump called her “Miss Piggy” and “Miss Housekeeping”.

Trump held off on Bill Clinton's 'indiscretions'

After Clinton attacked Trump at the end over his insults of women, Trump said he was resisting attacking Clinton on... something. Now he has told Fox News’ Sean Hannity a bit more about what he was thinking:

I didn’t want to say – her husband was in the room along with her daughter, who I think is a very nice young lady – and I didn’t want to say what I was going to say about what’s been going on in their lives ... I decided not to say it. I thought it would be very disrespectful to Chelsea and maybe to the family. But she said very bad things about me... it’s a disgrace.

Updated

Clinton has popped up at a student watch event at Hofstra. She’s thanking the student organizers for everything they’ve done. “We need to turn out a big vote here in New York,” she says. And in Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Hampshire.

“You saw tonight how high the stakes are, didn’t you?” she says.

Asian shares recovered and the Mexican peso surged on Tuesday as investors seemed to award the first US presidential debate to Clinton over Trump, Reuters reports:

Markets have tended to see Clinton as the candidate of the status quo, while few are sure what a Trump presidency might mean for US foreign policy, trade and the domestic economy.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan bounced to be up 0.2%, while South Korea and Shanghai inched higher.

Japan’s Nikkei more than halved its losses and was down 0.4% by late morning, while the U.S. dollar edged up to 100.74 yen from a low of around 100.08.

EMini futures for the S&P 500 also recouped all its losses to trade 0.5 percent firmer.

Trump says he will 'absolutely' accept outcome of election

Trump walks through the spin room. He’s asked, “will you accept the outcome of this election?”

“Oh yes, absolutely I will,” he says.

From the horse’s mouth.

Top three most-Tweeted debate moments, via the good folks at Twitter:

1. Trump says he has “good temperament”
2. Trump comments on stop and frisk
3. Trump and Clinton exchange over plan for defeating ISIS

Snap reaction:

The cast of early 2000s hit sitcom Will & Grace reunited for a special election episode released Monday packed with 2016 campaign jokes - mocking Trump University and joking that voters should support Hillary Clinton because pop star Katy Perry does.

A nine-minute mini-episode was put online just an hour before the debate on Monday, although the actors had hinted it was coming earlier today. As Brian Moylan predicted in the Guardian this afternoon, the actors - several of whom are known Clinton backers - are basically just doing the show as a pro-Clinton ad - but at least it’s funny. As always, Karen Walker, the sardonic troublemaker who is the lone Trump supporter, gets all the best lines.

“You know Donald is one of my oldest friends. I helped him pick out Melania!” she says.

They talk about immigration and Latinos, and Karen, speaking about her maid Rosario (who was revealed as undocumented immigrant during the show), quips: “She owes me, I sent her to college.”

“You sent her to Trump University! To study dusting!” says Will.

“It’s what they teach,” replies Karen.

In the show, Karen had supposedly shot at Rosario, but that just became a comment about gun control.

“If Crooked Hillary had her way, I wouldn’t have that gun and I’d have to use my cannon and Rosario would be dead,” said Karen.

When Will complains that Trump uses hateful language to talk about people, Karen turns to Grace.

“Did you hear what your pussy gay Muslim boyfriend just said?” she asks.

Will’s friend Jack stars as the undecided voter who is considering not bothering to cast a ballot in November.

“But does my vote even matter? How can one unemployed white fella registered in Pennsylvania make a difference?” he asks.

Grace attempts to appeal as Clinton being the first female president. But Jack isn’t convinced, saying he hasn’t heard “the one thing that will convince me to vote for one candidate over the other”.

But Will knows exactly what to stay to win over the urban gay Jack. “Katy Perry likes Hillary,” he says.

At the end of the “episode”, the words #votehoney appears. Votehoney.com redirects viewers straight to hillaryclinton.com.

It’s over. What do you think? Winner? Loser? Highlights? Lowlights?

Fact check: ICE

Trump: “I was just endorsed by ICE.”

Immigration and Customs Enforcement is a government agency. It does not endorse political candidates. A group of former customs officials endorsed Trump just before the debate.

Updated

Last question: will you accept the outcome of the election?

Clinton says she will. But she’s asking for support because she believes livelihoods and families depend on it.

Trump says he wants to make America great again.

Updated

Fact check: the nuclear deal with Iran

Trump on the Iran nuclear deal: “One of the worst deals ever made by any country in history.” He said $400m in cash was part of that deal – and Clinton was responsible.

Clinton had nothing to do with the delivery of $400m to Iran as part of a settlement for a failed arms deal that Tehran’s pre-revolutionary government had made with the US in the 1970s.

The State Department under John Kerry has admitted, however, that it wanted to use that money as “leverage” to secure the sailors’ release, although its transfer had been mediated through an international court. The money was delivered as foreign currency because US law bars any transaction in US dollars and sanctions make bank transactions difficult.

The US is not giving any of its own money to Iran as part of an international nuclear arms deal meant to prevent the construction of weapons. The deal gradually unfreezes assets that belong to Iran but were frozen under sanctions related to the nation’s nuclear program. Sanctions related to human rights, terrorism and other issues remain in place and still lock Iran out of billions.

Trump’s guess of how much Iran will benefit by unfrozen assets is far higher than most experts’ estimates, though not inconceivable. Treasury secretary Jack Lew has put the number at $56bn, and Iranian officials have said $32bn and $100bn. Independent economists have calculated that Iran will free up anything between $30bn to $100bn. Complicating the math are Iran’s debts: it will have to pay off tens of billions to countries such as China.

There is no evidence that the brief capture in January of 10 American sailors had any effect on the nuclear deal, which had been finalized five months earlier, although the incident rattled fragile relations between Washington and Tehran. A few days after the sailors were released, United Nations inspectors confirmed that Iran had complied with the deal.

What Iran does next remain an open question – subject to inspection by UN officials – and Clinton’s argument in favor of the deal hinges on a degree of good faith that Tehran will comply by the terms of the deal.

Donald Trump has questioned Hillary Clinton’s temperament, perhaps because voters are questioning Donald Trump’s temperament. A poll conducted by Monmouth University just last week found that 61% if respondents didn’t think Trump “has the right temperament to be president” while just 39% said the same of Clinton.

Trump says the Iran deal “was one of the first deals ever made by any country in history.”

Holt tries to move on.

Trump: “I met with Bibi Netanyahu the other day. Believe me, he is not a happy camper.

Clinton: “I want to reassure our allies in Japan and South Korea and elsewhere that we have mutual defense treaties and we will honor them... I want to on behalf of myself and I think on behalf of the majority of the American people say that ‘our word is good.’

“There’s no doubt that we have other problems with Iran... and Donald never tells you what he would do.. would he have bombed Iran?

“He should tell us what his alternative should be. It’s like his plan to defeat Isis. He says it’s a secret plan, but the only secret is that he has no plan...

“Are we going to lead the world with strength in accordance with our values? That’s what I intend to do... we cannot let those who would try to destabilize the world... to be given any opportunities at all.”

Fact check: Nato and a hotel

Trump has claimed that Nato must turn to a directly anti-terror campaign in the Middle East, and that his urging has already influenced the alliance.

But Nato has had a Defense Against Terrorism program since June 2004, almost a full 12 years before Trump called the alliance “obsolete”. In July its member nations decided to increase efforts against Isis, specifically, in Syria and Iraq, as its leaders had discussed for months. Trump was not involved.

Trump also claimed that his new Washington DC hotel came in before schedule and under budget.

Not quite. Per the AP:

A June 2013 press release posted on the Trump Organization’s website announced that the redevelopment of the old post office was “expected to start in 2014 with the hotel opening scheduled in 2016.” A few months later, the Trump Organization announced the expected grand opening of the hotel would happen at the end of 2015. The Trump Organization said in a third statement in 2013 ... completion was expected in late 2015.

In 2014, the Trump Organization went back to announcing the hotel would open in mid-2016. In February, in the midst of Trump’s presidential campaign, the organization shifted and announced the hotel was planned to open in September, “almost two years ahead of schedule, which is unheard of for a project of this size and complexity,” Ivanka Trump is quoted as saying.

And during a March visit to the site, Donald Trump said, “We’re two years ahead of schedule. We’re going to be opening in September.”

The hotel is now only partly open.

Holt moves to the last segment. Do you support the current policy on “first use” of nuclear weapons? It’s a bit of a gotcha question. He’s talking about no first use.

Trump blathers about Russia, then says, “I would certainly not do first strike.”

He says China should “go into North Korea.” Then he says Iran has power over North Korea. He’s casting an extremely wide net for this answer.

Updated

As the candidates debate “securing America” with a particular focus on the threat of Isis and each candidate’s stance on the Iraq war, this chart offers some context:

Clinton quotes Trump as saying “you know if they taunted our sailors, I’d blow them out of the water...” referring to sailors taken captive by Iran.

Clinton continues on Trump’s temperament: “The worst.. has been about nuclear weapons. He has said repeatedly that he does not care if other countries got nuclear weapons..

His cavalier attitude about nuclear weapons is so deeply troubling... A man who could be provoked with a tweet should not have his finger anywhere near the button.

Trump:

That line is getting a little bit old.

Clinton:

It’s a good one, though. Well describes the problem.

Clinton tweaks Trump for temperament boast

Trump: “I have much better judgment than he does. There’s no question about that. I also have a much better temperament than she does...

I think my strongest asset maybe by far is my temperament. I have a winning temperament.

He’s raving about his perfect temperament.

Holt: Secretary Clinton?

Clinton: “Whoo! OK... ” She makes fun of him and gets a laugh.

Updated

Holt says that Trump supported the war in Iraq.

Trump flies off the handle: “That is a mainstream media nonsense put out by her!”

Holt: “The record shows otherwise.”

Trump: “The record shows that I’m right.”

Then he runs through his own history of his positions. He talks about Sean Hannity telling him, Trump, that he, Trump, opposed the war.

Trump is still talking. “If somebody would call up Sean Hannity, he and I used to have arguments.”

Fact check: Isis, Libya and Iraq

Trump: “President Obama and Secretary Clinton created a vacuum” for Isis.

The claim that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton created the conditions for Isis ignores that its first segments formed out of the post-invasion civil war in Iraq, while George W Bush was president; that the group took root in Syria’s civil war, where the US did not intervene until 2014; and that Obama withdrew American forces in 2011 under the timeline agreed on by Bush and Baghdad.

Clinton: “Donald supported the invasion of Iraq.”

Trump: “Wrong.”

This is a lie. In the months before the Iraq war began, the businessman made a tepid endorsement of invasion to radio host Howard Stern, who asked him whether he thought the US should attack Saddam Hussein.

“Yeah, I guess so,” Trump answered.

A few weeks later he told Fox News that George W Bush was “doing a very good job”. Several weeks after the invasion, Trump told the Washington Post: “The war’s a mess.” In August 2004 he told Esquire: “Two minutes after we leave, there’s going to be a revolution, and the meanest, toughest, smartest, most vicious guy will take over.”

Even in an interview cited by the Trump campaign to explain his “opposition”, Trump expressed impatience with Bush for not invading sooner. “Whatever happened to the days of the Douglas MacArthur? He would go and attack. He wouldn’t talk.”

Trump also supported complete withdrawal from Iraq, even in the event of continued civil war or authoritarian violence there. “You know how they get out? They get out. That’s how they get out. Declare victory and leave,” he told CNN in 2007. “This is a total catastrophe, and you might as well get out now because you’re just wasting time, and lives.”

Like Clinton, Trump also supported military strikes in Libya, saying in a February 2011 video blog that the US should take “immediate” action against dictator Muammar Ghaddafi.

“We should go in, we should stop this guy, which would be be very easy and very quick. We could do it surgically.” No one supported an occupation to “build democracy” there in the model of George W Bush’s occupation of Iraq.

Updated

Trump accuses Clinton of turning Iran into “a major power.”

On Nato, “they have to understand I’m a business person,” Trump says. He accuses allies of not “paying their fair share.”

Then Trump claims credit for Nato opening up a major terror division.

“I think we have to get Nato to go into the Middle East with us, and we have to knock the hell out of Isis, and we have to do it fast.”

Then Trump says that in fact Clinton did pull out the troops.

Clinton: We’ve covered this ground.

Holt brings up domestic and homegrown terrorism. How to prevent those? Trump is first.

Trump goes back to Isis. He blames the formation of Isis on the precipitous withdrawal from Iraq. He suggests leaving 10,000 troops behind. “We should’ve taken the oil … Isis would not have been able to form either,” he says.

Trump refers to “Libya, which was another one of her disasters.”

Clinton again appeals to the refs, to the “fact-checkers.” Clinton says Trump supported the invasion of Iraq...

Trump: “Wrong. Wrong.”

... and Clinton says that George W Bush made an agreement to leave Iraq, not Obama.

This is basic history. Will it fly?

Clinton is on to the homegrown terrorism problem. She calls for an “intelligence surge.” She says that the US must work with Nato and allies to improve intelligence and turn attention to terrorism. “Donald has consistently insulted Muslims abroad, Muslims at home, when we need to be cooperating.”

Updated

Fact check: foreign policy

Clinton: Trump has been “praiseworthy of Vladimir Putin”.

Trump: “Wrong.”

Trump has repeatedly called Russia’s president a “strong leader” and spoken approvingly – “praise” by nearly any definition – of this strength and Putin’s polling numbers. For instance, on 18 December 2015 he told MSNBC: “I’ve always felt fine about Putin. I think that he’s a strong leader.”

He added: “He’s running his country and at least he’s a leader, unlike what we have in this country.”

Last September, he told Fox News: “In terms of leadership [Putin’s] getting an A.” In a 10 March debate, Trump tried to hedge on semantics. “Strong doesn’t mean good,” he said. “Putin is a strong leader, absolutely. He is a strong leader. Now I don’t say that in a good way or a bad way. I say it as a fact.”

Trump: Clinton has been “fighting Isis your entire adult life.”

The Islamic State’s first segments formed out of the post-invasion civil war in Iraq, while George W Bush was president. The group took root in Syria’s civil war, where the US did not intervene until 2014. The terror group largely formed out of the remnants of Saddam Hussein’s government and the factions that formed al-Qaida in Iraq – all of which happened in the last decade or so. The group also gained international notoriety only in 2014, when it invaded Iraq in significant forces and when Clinton was out of office.

Trump: “Whether [the DNC hack] was Russia, whether that was China, whether that was another country, we don’t know.”

Several independent security firms, in addition to intelligence officials, have pointed to Russian-backed hackers as the culprits behind a hack of the Democratic National Committee. Trump is correct in an extremely technical sense: no one has provided 100% proof that Russia was behind the hack, and the Obama administration has proven loath to escalate a hacking war. But security experts have found technical fingerprints that seem to hint back toward Russia, just as they have found links back to Chinese hacks in unrelated cases.

Clinton says she has a plan to defeat Isis that involves combatting them online. “But we also have to intensify our air strikes against Isis and … support our Arab and Kurdish partners...”

“We’re making progress, our military is … in Iraq,” she says. “We’re hoping that within a year we’ll be able to push Isis out of Iraq.”

She ignores Trump’s defense of Russia on the hacking. She says that taking out Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a top plank in her plan to take out Isis.

Updated

Donald Trump has tried to deflect a question about how he demanded to see Barack Obama’s birth certificate. Those racist attitudes are still prevalent among the Republican’s supporters.

A poll in May found that two-thirds of voters with a favorable opinion of Donald Trump believed Barack Obama was a Muslim and 59% believed Obama was born outside of the US.

Trump defends Russia from accusation of hacking DNC

Trump says he was endorsed by more than 200 admirals and generals “and many more are coming.” “So when secretary Clinton says this... I’ll take the admirals and the generals over the political hacks.”

That line may not play well in northern Virginia.

Trump casts doubt on the notion that the DNC hacking was Russia-backed. He says it may have been China, or bizarrely, a “400-lb person sitting on their bed.”

“Under President Obama, we’ve lost control of things we should have had control over.. we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare.”

Updated

Clinton takes a question on cyber war. She says that Trump has praised Russian president Vladimir Putin. Trump does something strange to the microphone. Kind of swoops on it and blows into it with his full round mouth.

Clinton: “We need to make it very clear.. the United States has much greater capacity, and we are not going to sit idly by to let state actors go after our information.

“I was so shocked when Donald publicly invited Putin to hack into Americans. That is just unacceptable... Donald is unfit to be commander-in-chief.”

Updated

Fact check: birtherism

Trump blames Sidney Blumenthal, a friend of the Clinton’s, and Patti Solis Doyle, a 2008 campaign manager, for creating the false claim that Barack Obama was not born in the United States.

There is no evidence that Clinton or her campaign had anything to do with the false rumors that Barack Obama was not born in the United States, nor did Clinton have anything to do with Donald Trump’s five years of questions about birth certificates, which he finally recanted last Friday.

Trump’s campaign has tried to blame several people who were, if at all, tangentially related to the Clinton campaign. There is no evidence that Solis Doyle had anything to do with the claim either. She told CNN that there was a volunteer coordinator in Iowa who forwarded the email and that the volunteer was dismissed, and that she called the Obama campaign to apologize.

A former aide named Mark Penn wrote a 2007 memo that Obama’s “lack of American roots” could “hold him back”. But he added: “We are never going to say anything about his background.” The Clinton campaign never acted on his advice, and he was dismissed in April 2008.

Some Clinton supporters have been blamed over anonymous chain emails questioning Obama’s citizenship, but none of the rumormongers were linked to the campaign. Philip Berg, a former Pennsylvania official who supported Clinton, filed a lawsuit in 2008 over Obama’s birth certificate; the suit was thrown out because it was groundless. Sidney Blumenthal, an old friend of the Clintons who frequently sent them unsolicited advice, reportedly asked reporters to investigate Obama’s birth, but he has denied this and denounced the conspiracy.

As fellow fact-checkers at Politifact have noted, a Texas volunteer for Clinton named Linda Starr eventually joined Berg’s failed lawsuit; there is nothing to suggest Starr had any influence in the campaign at any level. Campaign volunteers who forwarded emails falsely alleging Obama is Muslim resigned when they were found out.

Trump did not answer the question about what convinced him that the president was born in the United States, even though Obama’s birth certificate has been public for the five years that has Trump continued questioning his birthplace.

Updated

Clinton describes Trump's 'long record' of 'racist behavior'

Holt asks Trump about what changed his mind about the “birther” babble, which Trump reversed himself on recently after five years.

Trump says that Clinton aide Sydney Blumenthal started it and he ended it. Then he lists things he’d like to get on to – trying to put the conversation behind him.

Holt: The birth certificate was produced in 2011, you continued to press the issue in 2012, 2013, 2014...

“Nobody was caring much about it,” Trump says. He returns to Sydney Blumenthal.

Trump says he did a “great job and a great service” for the country and the president by demanding the birth certificate.

Clinton: “Just listen to what you heard... he tried to put the whole racist, birther lie, to bed. But it can’t be dismissed that easily. He has started his campaign activity based on this racist lie... because some of his supporters.. believed it or wanted to believe it.

Donald started his career back in 1973 being sued by the justice department for racial discrimination...

He has a long record in engaging in racist behavior. And the birther lie was a very difficult one. Barack Obama is a man of great integrity. I would like to remember what Michelle Obama said...

When they go low, we go high.

Trump accuses Clinton of disrespecting Obama in her debates with him. Then he defends the 1970s lawsuits.

We settled the suit with zero with no admission of guilt. They sued so many people.”

Then he says “I have been given great credit for what I did” in Palm Beach, referring to the integration of a club.

Updated

Fact check: race and gun crime

Clinton claimed that African American men are more likely to be killed by guns than other demographics, and is broadly correct.

She is broadly correct that African American man are disproportionately affected by gun violence, including by police. She’s also correct that crime rates are overall still down from where they were in the 1990s, but she omits the 10.8% single-year increase in murders in 2015. The recent spike in violent crime has been concentrated in a handful of cities, such as Chicago, Washington DC and Baltimore.

Trump: “African Americans and Hispanics are living in hell because it’s so dangerous. In Chicago they’ve had thousands of shootings since January 1st … Almost 4,000 people in Chicago have been killed since Barack Obama became president.”

Trump often cites Chicago’s shooting crisis as evidence that the US is plagued by dangerous crime, but even that city, which has the most homicides in the US, but not even that city compares to a “war zone” as Trump says. In 2015, Chicago had 2,988 people who were victims of gun violence, according to the Chicago Tribune, and 488 homicides in all. The city has more than 500 homicides so far this year, per the paper, and more than 2,100 victims of gun violence.

In Afghanistan – a country Trump often compares the city to – between January and June 2016, 1,601 civilians have been killed and 3,565 injured, according to the United Nations. The figures include 388 killed and 1,121 injured children. The UN reported 3,545 civilians killed and 7,457 injured in 2015. More than 80,000 people have been displaced by violence this year. The US and Afghan forces control only about 70% of the country, while the Taliban and militants control the other 30%, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff told the Senate on Thursday.

Trump on stop and frisk police tactics: “Stop and frisk which worked very well in New York it … it brought the crime rate way down.”

The controversial police tactic of stop and frisk, which became a hallmark of New York policing through the mayorships of Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, has landed the city in federal court, where a judge ruled it unconstitutional. One research paper, unpublished through peer review, found modest drops in some crimes. A second paper, published through peer review, found problems in the first study and “few significant effects” of the tactic.

A New York Civil Liberties Union report, on 12 years’ worth of police data, found young black and Hispanic men were targeted for stops at a vastly higher proportion than white men: more than half the people searched were black and about 30% were Hispanic. Among more than 5m stops during the Bloomberg administration, police found a gun less than 0.02% of the time, according to the report. NYPD records between 2004 and 2012 show similar figures: in 4.4m stops, weapons were seized from 1.0% of black people, 1.1% from Hispanic people and 1.4% of white people.

New York’s long-term decline in crime rates began before Giuliani took office in the 1994, and its causes were and are diverse: data-driven policing with the Compstat system, the growth of the police force by 35% over the decade, incarceration increases by 24%, and the 39% unemployment decline that matched with national economic growth. Not even the loudest supporters of stop and frisk, including Bloomberg, whose last term Trump has called “a disaster”, have argued the tactic alone reduced crime to its current lows.

Trump said that the tactic was not ruled unconstitutional because of a judge “who was against policing”, but his personal opinion about the judge does not mean she did not rule it unconstitutional.

Trump: “We have to take the guns away from the people that shouldn’t have them … these are bad people.”

This argument flies in the face of Trump’s pro-gun rights stance for legal owners; he has repeatedly and falsely insisted that Clinton wants to take away guns from legal owners.

Trump claimed that New York’s crime rate is up since the end of stop and frisk. It remains near historic lows.

Updated

Trump “agrees” that no-fly lists should apply to background checks. Then he tells Clinton that her 1996 crime law-era reference to “Super-predators” was harmful.

Trump then returns to stop-and-frisk and says Clinton secretly agrees with him that it was a great program.

Trump says murders are up in New York. Clinton says they’re down.

Clinton says effective policing is necessary not “things that sound good.” And “no one should disagree about respecting the rights of young men who live in those neighborhoods.”

Holt tries to get in.

“The African American community has really been let down by politicians... the community within the inner cities have been abused and used in order to get votes by Democratic politicians because that’s where it is.”

Trump says: “I’ve been all over the place.. you decided to stay home, and that’s OK.”

Clinton has this answer pre-cooked:

I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate. And yes I did. And you know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president. And that’s a good thing.

Updated

Hillary is talking about “systemic racial discrimination in the criminal justice system”. The stats back her up.

According to 2008 data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, white, black and Hispanic drivers were stopped at similar rates by police. But black drivers were about three times more likely than white drivers to be searched during a traffic stop.

A 2013 study in the Yale Law Journal found that in cases when judges have discretion over how long a sentence should be for a specific crime, they tend to select longer sentences for black men than white men, even if they have the same criminal history.

Trump always pumps himself up as a businessman and a billionaire, but Clinton points out that his businesses have filed for bankruptcy on six occasions, that workers have sued for him not receiving payment, and that he refuses to release his tax returns.

Again, that exchange is different depending on who you support.

On the right

Washington Times writer:

A Trump surrogate and conservative commenter:

A conservative:

On the left

President of the Center for American Progress:

Vermont senator and Clinton rival-turned-supporter Bernie Sanders:

Politico reporter:

Updated

Clinton calls for restricted gun access

Clinton on guns: “We’ve got too many military-style weapons on the streets. In a lot of places, our police are outgunned … we need to keep guns out of the hands of those who’d do harm...

“There are things we can do and we ought to do it in a bipartisan way.”

Good question from Holt: are you saying that police have an implicit bias against black men?

Clinton: “I think the implicit bias is a problem for everyone, not just police ... too many of us in our great country jump to conclusions about each other.”

She calls for all of us to ask questions about “Why am I feeling this way?”

Updated

Clinton hits Trump for 'dire negative picture of black communities'

Trump says “you need better relationships between the community and police.. there’s some bad things going on … we need law and order and we need law and order in the cities.”

Clinton is still listening. Now she speaks.

“I’ve heard Donald say this at his rallies, and it’s really unfortunate that he paints such a dire negative picture of black communities in our country.”
“There’s a lot we should be proud of.”

Clinton says “stop-in-frisk was found to be unconstitutional.” She says it was not effective. “It’s just a fact that if you’re a young African American man, and you do the same thing as a young white man, you’re more likely to be charged, convicted and imprisoned...”

“We can’t just say ‘law and order’. We need to come up with a plan.”

Updated

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at the presidential debate on Monday.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at the presidential debate on Monday. Photograph: Rick Wilking/AFP/Getty Images

Trump: African Americans and Hispanics are living in hell

Trump says Clinton won’t say “law and order”. “We need law and order in our country.”

Then he describes an inner-city hellscape:

African Americans and Hispanics are living in hell because it’s so dangerous. You walk down the street you get shot.

He says the country needs law and order. He mentions stop and frisk, says Rudy Giuliani is in the audience and “it worked very well in New York.”

Clinton is looking at him evenly.

Holt follows up on stop-and-frisk. He says it was unconstitutional because it targets nonwhite men.

“No you’re wrong,” Trump says. “It went before a judge who was a very against-police judge.”

Holt: “The argument is that it causes racial profiling.”

Trump flatly denies the correlation.

Updated

The candidates are currently discussing racial justice in America. But some voters clearly have other priorities. When Pew Research Center asked what voters consider as “very important”, treatment of racial and ethnic minorities comes tenth on the list.

Voter priorities
Voters’ priorities. Photograph: Pew Research Center

Updated

Clinton: 'race often determines too much'

Holt brings up police shootings of black men and asks about healing along lines of race and racism.

“Unfortunately, race often determines too much,” she says. Where they live, how they’re treated in the criminal justice system. “We have to restore trust between communities and the police. We have to work to make sure that our police are using the best training, the best techniques, that they’re well prepared to use force... everyone should be respected by the law and everyone should respect the law.”

She says her platform would address criminal justice reform. “And we’ve got to get guns out of the hands of people who should not have them.” She refers to the gun epidemic. “We have to tackle the plague of gun violence.”

Trump says he’s opening a hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue. “So if I don’t get there one way, I’ll get there another.”

Trump is ranting about the budget. We use the word ranting because his teeth are bared, he’s chopping the air with his hands and his voice is at high volume.

Updated

Fact check: tax plans

Trump claimed that his tax plan will be the largest cuts since Ronald Reagan and create jobs, while in his words Clinton’s would create a huge tax hike.

Trump’s tax plan would disproportionately help the wealthiest Americans, saving them millions of dollars and adding trillions to the national debt, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, a conservative thinktank. He would reduce the business tax rate to 15%, eliminate the estate tax (aka the “death tax”), which mostly affects wealthy inheritors, and would reduce revenue from taxes by about $5tn. According to the Foundation, the top 1% of earners would see a 10.2% increase to their incomes.

Clinton’s tax plan does not change tax rates for the middle class, but does increase taxes by 4% on people who have an adjusted income of more than $5m, as well as closing corporate loopholes. Only about 0.5% of small businesses in the US reported a profit of more than $1m in 2011, according to the US Treasury Department. Clinton would increase tax revenue by $1.1tn by taxing the top 1% of earners, increasing the estate tax and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and by implementing and a more complex tax code, according to the Tax Policy Center.

Trump has not proven that he pays any federal income tax, and did not deny that he doesn’t pay, saying simply that it would prove he’s “smart”.

Trump: “It’s about time that this country had somebody running it who has some idea about money.” He appears to be referring to himself.

Then he compares La Guardia unfavorably to Dubai, Qatar and Chinese airports. Then he lists all the infrastructure he would build.

“We don’t have the money because it’s been squandered on your ideas,” Trump says.

Maybe it’s because you haven’t paid your taxes, she says. Good line.

Clinton hits Trump for not paying people:

I’ve met a lot of people who were stiffed by you and your businesses, Donald... who you refused to pay when they finished the work that you asked them to do.

Clinton says there’s an architect in the audience who was not paid by Trump for his work.

Clinton: “Do the thousands of people who you have stiffed in the course of your business not deserve some kind of apology?”

Trump says the person probably did not do good work.

She points out he’s taken business bankruptcy six times: “You even at one time tried to suggest that you would negotiate down the national debt. Sometimes there’s not a direct transfer of skills … but sometime what would happen in business would be disastrous for government.”

Updated

Manterruptions

Notice how Donald Trump keeps on talking over Hillary Clinton? Social scientists around the country will probably be shrugging with a “go figure”. In 1975, two sociologists conducted a study by loitering in public places like coffee shops and drug stores with a tape recorder, listening to two-person conversations they overheard. They found men were responsible for 47 of the 48 interruptions they overheard.

A separate study in 2014 found pretty similar results. When men were talking to women, they interrupted 2.1 times over a three-minute dialogue - when they were talking to men, they interrupted 1.8 times on average. When women were talking to women, they interrupted even more though, 2.9 times per 3 minutes on average. But the women interrupted just once if their talking partner was male.

Debating trade - one of Donald Trump’s biggest claims is that he’s against trade deals such as TPP and NAFTA - has created the most aggressive moment between the two so far, with Trump and Clinton both yelling at each other. But the winner of the spat depends on which side you’re on.

On the right:

Author of Reclaiming the American Right: Lost Legacy of the Conservative Movement:


Conservative commentator AJ Delgado:

A Breitbart News reporter:

GOP strategist:

On the left:

Political junkie:

Progressive columnist:

Slate editor:

Media reports today have claimed that as many as 100 million people could be tuning in to watch this debate - a number vaguely attributed to “network executives and political strategists”. Wherever the number comes from, it really does seem to be epic by historical standards - is it though?

Nielsen, the market research company which tracks such numbers, looked at 50 years of household viewership for televised presidential debates (note, they’re looking at households though so it’s a slightly different measure). They found that the biggest debate was the one between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on 3 October 2012 which attracted 46.2 million households.

And, as the candidates debate the economy, remember that viewers will have different attitudes about where the country is at. According to polling by Pew Research Center, Republicans are much less likely than Democrats to say that “economic conditions in the country are excellent” or “very good”.

Nielsen
Nielsen Photograph: Nielsen

Updated

Clinton on Trump's taxes: 'there's something he's hiding'

Clinton gets the mic. She says candidates going back 40 years have released their returns. “So you’ve gotta ask yourself, why won’t he release his tax returns? Maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is. Maybe he’s not as charitable... third, he owes $600m to foreign banks... or maybe he doesn’t want the American people, all of you watching to know he didn’t pay any income taxes.”

Trump: “That makes me smart.”

Clinton: “Zero for troops, zero for vets.. it must be something really important, or terrible, that he’s trying to hide... I have no reason to believe that he’s ever going to release his tax returns. Because there’s something he’s hiding... were he ever to get near the White House. What would be these conflicts? Who does he owe money to?

I made a mistake using private email.

Trump: That’s for sure.

Clinton: I take responsibility.

Trump: That was not a mistake. That was done purposefully.

She’s blinking at him. He may be in conspiracy territory here.

“As far as my tax returns, you don’t learn that much from tax returns, I can tell you.. the other things, I’m extremely under-leveraged.”

Updated

It’s ironic (or just plain awful) that voters who are faced with a choice between two of the most unpopular candidates in history must do so on a medium they also thoroughly distrust.

According to data published by Pew Research Center today, 70% of US adults believe the news media is having a negative effect on the country. By contrast, 50% say the same about banks and financial institutions. When analyzed by partisanship, those views are even stronger among Republicans than Democrats.

Trust in institutions.
Trust in institutions. Photograph: Pew

Holt asks Trump about releasing his tax returns. “Don’t Americans have a right to know?”

Trump says he’s under audit.

It will be released as soon as the audit’s finished. .. but you will learn more about Donald Trump where I have filed a 100-page.. the income is filed at $694m this past year.. you would’ve told me I was going to make that [X] years ago I would’ve been surprised.

That’s the kind of thinking our country needs.

Holt says the IRS says he can still release his returns even under audit.

Trump replies that he’s always under audit. “I will release my tax returns against my lawyer’s wishes when she releases her 33,000 emails that were deleted.”

Some people in the hall clap for that.

Holt: “So it’s negotiable?”

Holt tells the audience to be quiet.

Trump: 'our country is suffering'

Clinton says we need “broad-based inclusive growth.” She spins through a few rather automatic talking points.

Trump says Clinton is “all talk, no action, sounds good, never going to happen. Our country is suffering because of people like secretary Clinton.”

“We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble.. and we have a Fed that is doing political things...”

Trump is now kind of ranting alone onstage about “bureaucratic red tape” and corporate inversions. “We have no leadership, and honestly that starts with secretary Clinton.”

“I have a feeling that by the end of this evening everything is going to be my fault,” she says.

He agrees with her. Everything is her fault.

She smiles. “Join the debate by saying more crazy things.”

Trump jumps in again: “There’s nothing crazy about not letting our companies bring their money back into our country.”

He’s interrupting her continuously now.

Updated

Donald Trump is sniffling - but only anti-Trump people are acknowledging it, with clear schadenfreude after conservative bloggers pushed stories about Clinton’s ill health and supposed coughing fits for months.

Democrat strategist Stu Loeser:

A progressive tweeter:

New York Times TV critic:

Rick Wilson, who is a Republican but not a Trump fan:

But Trump fans aren’t mentioning it at all.

I’m monitoring red and blue Twitter tonight, to see how different sides report the same thing depending on their political opinions.

Speaking of red and blue, Trump has Clinton is wearing a red pantsuit (the traditional Republican color), while Trump has dumped his red tie for a blue one. It’s a choice that both sides are already commenting on.

On the left, Obama’s former speechwriter ...

And the president for the Center of American Progress:

And on the right, conservative blogger Ben Shapiro:

And alt-right blogger Richard B Spencer:

Trump:

You are going to approve one of the biggest tax cuts in history. You are going to drive businesses out... you are going to regulate these companies out of business...

You have regulations on top of regulations.. and you want to increase the regulations and make them even worse. I’m going to cut taxes big league, and you’re going to raise taxes

Clinton stops Holt from trying to move on. She says Trump cannot go on unanswered. “I kind of assumed that there would be a lot of these charges and claims,” she says. She refers people to her web site to fact-check Trump.

Holt tries to move on. Trump won’t be silenced. “Just go to her web site to fight Isis,” he mocks her. He says General MacArthur would not have said that.

Then he makes another accusation against her: “You’re telling the enemy everything we want to do. No wonder you’ve been fighting Isis your entire adult life.”

Clinton appeals to the refs; “Fact checkers, please.” The pummeling of his attacks, as aggressive, and fantastic, as they are, has an intense energy.

Trump launches attack

Trump attacks Clinton: “You’ve been doing this for 30 years. Why are you just starting to think about this right now?”

Clinton: “Well, actually, I have thought about this quite a bit. ... I think my husband did quite a good job in the 1990s...

Trump interrupts her, sort of inaudibly. She smiles more broadly and continues.

“Incomes went up for everybody... manufacturing jobs also went up in the 1990s, if we’re actually going to look at the facts.”

Then she spouts a bunch of statistics.

“When you haven’t done it for 30 years... your husband signed Nafta, which is one of the worst things that ever happened. You go to Ohio, you go to Pennsylvania... Nafta is one of the worst things signed anywhere...”

It’s a bracing attack. He accuses her of supporting TPP. He’s really going after her. “You called it the gold standard.”

“That is just non-accurate,” Clinton says. “Well, Donald, I know that you live in your own reality, but that was not the facts...”

“Was it President Obama’s fault?”

“There are different views about our country, our economy and...”

Trump: “You have no plan. Secretary Clinton you have no plan.”

Clinton: “I do. I wrote a book about it ... We have a very robust set of plans.”

Updated

Fact check

Trump: “Our jobs are fleeing the country, they’re going to Mexico they’re going to many other countries … Hundreds of hundreds of companies are doing this.”

Trump is primarily talking about the North American Free Trade Agreement, but the long-term decline in manufacturing around the United States can’t only be attributed to the trade deal. Economists still debate the effect of the deal on jobs, since US trade with Canada and Mexico is modest at best. In 2015, the Congressional Research Service wrote: “Nafta did not cause the huge job losses feared by the critics or the large economic gains predicted by supporters.”

Manufacturing is down 37% since its peak in 1979, but this change has a great deal to do with the general shift toward a service-based economy, which the US has had surpluses in in recent years. It’s true that many manufacturing jobs have been outsourced, especially since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but it’s also true that the US has added more than 800,000 factory jobs since 2010.

Trump: “My father gave me a small loan in 1975.”

Trump never struggled for money or started with anything modest. In 1978 his father gave him a loan totaling almost $1m – about $3.7m today – and acted as guarantor for the young Trump’s early projects. A 1981 report by a New Jersey regulator also shows a $7.5m loan from the patriarch, and years later hebought $3.5m in gambling chips to help his son pay off the debts of a failing casino, which was found to have broken the law by accepting them. Trump also borrowed millions against his inheritance before his father’s death, a 2007 deposition shows.

Trump has not proven that he is worth $10bn, though his tax returns, which he has refused to release, could provide a clearer picture of his worth. His financial filings suggest he has less than $250m in liquid assets, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Trump has a history of overstating his properties: he has, for instance, told the FEC that a New York golf club is worth $50m but also argued in court that it is worth only $1.4m.

“Donald is one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis.”

Clinton is correct, and Trump unrepentant. In a video made in 2006 for his defunct and legally embattled Trump University, Trump said he hoped for a real estate “bubble burst”.

“I sort of hope that happens because then people like me would go in and buy” property and “make a lot of money,” he said.

“That’s called business by the way,” Trump interrupted Clinton.

Clinton: “Donald says climate change is a hoax created by the Chinese.”

Trump: “I did not, I do not say that.”

Trump did say that, in a 2012 tweet, right here:

Trump: “she talks about solar panels.. we invested in solar panels, that was a disaster... our energy policies are a disaster... you can’t do what you’re looking to do with $20tn in debt... [Obama] has doubled it in almost eight years... seven and a half years to be semi-exact.”

Clinton: “Donald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese.”

Trump: “I did not say that. I did not say that. I did not say that.”

Clinton just continues.

Updated

Clinton: 'Donald... rooted for the housing crisis'

Clinton says, “Let’s stop for a second and remember where we were eight years ago.”

She says the recession was owing to “tax policies that slashed taxes on Wall Street... in fact Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis...

Trump: That’s called business, by the way.

Clinton: 9 million people lost their jobs... The last thing we need to do is to go back to policies that failed us. She cites a nonpartisan tax study saying his plan would create a $5tn debt over ten years.

Trump is sniffling a lot. He’s on to Nafta. He says “secretary Clinton and others, politicians, should have been doing this for years... what’s happened to our jobs and our economy... we are $20tn, we cannot do it.

Holt: How do you bring back American manufacturing.

Trump: Don’t let the companies leave... “You say, fine... if you think you’re going to make... whatever you make and bring them into our country without a tax, you’re wrong.”

Clinton is watching him respectfully, attentively. He’s repetitious.

Trump falls for it. He says his father gave him “a small amount of money” in the 1970s and he built it into buildings. He’s a bit tetchy on the inheritance issue, and on his own brilliant record as a businessman.

“Let me give you the example of Mexico,” he says, and starts talking about the Vat tax.

Does he have a sniffle? Is he sick?

Clinton: 'Donald is very fortunate in his life'

“Donald is very fortunate in his life, and that’s all to his benefit... he borrowed $14m from his father, he really believes the more you help wealthy people, the better off you’ll be.”

Clinton contrasts her father’s experience dying drapery fabrics.

Trump on child care: 'I think Hillary and I agree'

Now Trump. “Our jobs are fleeing the country,” he says. “They’re going to Mexico. You look at what China is doing... they’re using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China.”

He returns to Mexico. They’re building plants. “With the United States, not so much... thousands of jobs...

As far as child care is concerned.. I think Hillary and I agree on that... but we have to stop our jobs from being stolen from us.

He returns to Mexico. Then he says “I’ll be reducing taxes tremenodously,” and that’s “going to be a job creator.”

Two minutes is tough for him?

Trade is an important issue,” Clinton says. We are 5% of the world’s population. We have to trade with the other 95%.”

She says, “The kind of plan Donald has put forth would be trickle-down economics, all over again.”

Then she tries, clumsily, a pseudo-zinger: “I call it Trumped-up trickle down economics.”

Let’s begin. Achieving prosperity. Holt frames the question. There’s been six years of jobs growth and increasing incomes.

This question is for Clinton. “Why are you a better choice to create jobs to put $$ in the pockets of American workers?”

Clinton thanks the moderator and crowd. What kind of country will we be, she asks. She says she thinks about her granddaughter, who’s turning two.

“I want to invest in you. I want to invest in the future.”

“We also have to make the economy fairer,” she says.

She’s quite poised. She is speaking not quickly. Paid family leave, earned sick days, affordable child care, wealthy pay their fair share.

Finally we tonight are on the stage tonight, Donald Trump and I. Donald it’s good to be with you... you have to judge us, who can shoulder the immense, awesome responsibilities of the presidency...

Here are the candidates. He’s in a blue tie, she’s in a red pantsuit. So that’s different.

They shake hands. They are both smiling ear-to-ear. 72 teeth between them.

Candidates take stage

Holt begins. He announces six segments, 15 minutes long. He’ll begin each segment with identical leadoff questions. Each candidate will have two minutes to respond. They’ll go from there.

Here come the candidates.

Updated

Go time... we’re within a minute, Holt has just informed the audience.

Can Trump clear the “adequately competent” bar?

Ignore everything?

Thanks again for joining – and please jump in below the line!

Moderator Lester Holt takes the stage.

Here we go. Holt tries some charm:

That thud you heard backstage was the sound of my knees buckling when [the announcement came] of a potential audience of 100m tonight.

He says he’ll give a one-minute warning when they’re about to go on air.

Psst, Lester: you’re on air.

Melania Trump and Bill Clinton are welcomed to the hall.

They’re not together. They enter separately. Clinton alone. Melania Trump trailed by her husband’s family. The two meet in the middle and shake hands. We know they have hung out at least twice – at the 2000 US Open tennis tournament and at her wedding.

Both candidates are tweeting about Clinton.

Ten minutes to go. Here’s HuffPost Pollster’s updated national average:

HuffPost Pollster’s national average.
HuffPost Pollster’s national average. Photograph: HuffPost Pollster

Debate rules: no clapping, no booing

Representatives of the debate commission have taken the stage to beseech the crowd not to interrupt the candidates and to keep their partisan cheering to a minimum.

In the house:

Rudy Giuliani kisses the hand of businessman Sheldon Adelson’s wife Miriam Ochsorn.
Rudy Giuliani kisses the hand of businessman Sheldon Adelson’s wife Miriam Ochsorn. Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty Images
Did you hear what Wildstein said?
Did you hear what Wildstein said? Photograph: Carlos Barria/Reuters
Don King et al.
Don King et al. Photograph: Andrew Gombert/EPA
Sheldon Adelson.
Sheldon Adelson. Photograph: Mike Segar/Reuters

The Trump pool reporter, Time magazine’s Zeke Miller, sends a list of people spotted in the room:

  • Mark Cuban (who appears to be seated in the front row)
  • Dan Malloy
  • Jesse Jackson
  • Andrew Cuomo and Sandra Lee
  • Reince and Sally Priebus
  • Donna Brazile
  • Don King
  • Rudy Giuliani in conversation with Sheldon Adelson
  • Eliot Engel
  • Chuck Schumer
  • Steve Israel
  • Mike Flynn
  • One of the Baldwin brothers with a Trump button
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Ray Washbourne
  • Charles Rangel calling out to Don King: “Welcome home, welcome home, we missed you.”
  • Mike Pence sitting up front

Updated

Video streams

Twenty minutes or so to go. Here are live video streams of the action, via Reuters and PBS:

Donald Trump could have an inherent advantage in this presidential debate purely because his speaking voice is a couple of notes lower than his opponent Hillary Clinton’s. Don’t take my word for it (you probably wouldn’t if I was reading this aloud) - this is based on a study into human voice pitch research conducted in 2012. The methodology couldn’t be more relevant to this debate.

In the study, 10 women and 10 men were recorded saying the phrase “I urge you to vote for me this November” - a sentence that’s about elections and yet is politically neutral. The researchers then manipulated the sounds of the recordings to be lower or higher and played them to a bunch of men and women who were asked which hypothetical candidate they’d vote for. They found that male and female leaders with lower-pitched voices (ie those that are more stereotypically masculine) were preferred by both men and women.

Here’s how the authors interpreted the results: “This bias could be a consequence of lower-pitched female voices being perceived as more competent, stronger, and more trustworthy … [and] in the case of men’s voices, men with lower-pitched voices are larger, stronger, and more aggressive.”

The findings can be corroborated by any woman who has ever spoken in a meeting.

Reaction to female and male candidates compared
Reaction to female and male candidates compared

We’ve asked for your favorite music to fact-check to. (Is this turning into your favorite Ramones to fact-check to? Hampstead’s not so far from Forest Hills...)

Here’s a winner:

It's debate time

If you’re just joining us – welcome to our live-wire coverage of the first presidential debate of the 2016 general election.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are scheduled to take the stage at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, at 9pm ET. The debate will last 90 minutes and be moderated by Lester Holt, host of NBC Nightly News. Clinton has won a coin flip and will take the first question.

The Commission on Presidential Debates has announced three amorphous topics for debate: America’s Direction, Achieving Prosperity and Securing America. So … anything, basically.

Eagle? Check. Founding documents? Check. Lecterns? Check. Let’s do this.
Eagle? Check. Founding documents? Check. Lecterns? Check. Let’s do this. Photograph: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

What must the candidates do this evening? In one version of the prevailing punditry, Clinton must avoid feeding voter doubts about her trustworthiness, while Trump must avoid coming across as a massive [redacted]. Sense a double standard? You’re not alone.

The goal for the candidates, of course, is to capture those voters who have yet to make up their minds, especially those living in swing states like Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania. Such a voter may not react to the same thing the crowd reacts to, the campaigns react to or, needless to say, the media reacts to. Watch and judge for yourself, America ... and the world.

They’re going to start soon. Both candidates arrive onstage as practiced debaters, though Trump does not have any experience facing just one other person. He participated in a dozen primary-season debates this cycle, while Clinton participated in nine … plus the two dozen she showed up for in 2008.

Thank you for reading, and please join us in the comments!

Updated

Here’s Clinton aide Philippe Reines – best-known among journalists as the state department spokesman who told a reporter to fuck off – playing Trump in a debate prep session:

Re-upping from before:

Clinton won tonight’s coin toss – and will get the first question of the night:

One hour to the opening bell

Here’s one way to look at it:

Hillary Clinton engages in some pre-debate trolling by tweeting footage of the 2011 White House correspondents’ dinner, in which Barack Obama skewered Donald Trump, who attended the dinner and who that year had become the foremost exponent of birther babble.

“Trump was so humiliated by the experience, they say, that it triggered some deep, previously hidden yearning for revenge,” wrote Roxanne Roberts, who was seated nearby, in the Washington Post.

Ninety minutes to go until the candidates take the stage. What’s your favorite fact-checking music?

How’s everyone feeling out there tonight?

Historic video of Trump, capless and tieless, exiting his vehicle, giving a thumbs up, giving a second, more vigorous thumbs up, and then walking away.

Updated

What would you ask the candidates?

What do you want moderator Lester Holt to ask? Tell us in the comments.

Here’s Dan Roberts with his list of 10 awkward debate questions to put Clinton and Trump on the spot:

For Donald Trump

How can you be trusted with the nuclear codes?

Did you support US intervention in Iraq and Libya?

Why would Mexico pay for you to build a wall?

Is there anyone you regret offending?

What evidence do you have against climate change?

For Hillary Clinton:

What single policy should your campaign be known for?

Do you believe in globalisation?

How would your counter-terrorism policy differ from Obama’s?

Why are you so secretive?

How would you reduce income inequality?

Click through for Dan’s analysis of each question:

Updated

Make or break: the defining moments of presidential debates

Here’s David Smith writing on watershed moments from presidential debates past:

1980: Carter accused Republican Ronald Reagan of planning to cut Medicare healthcare funding for the elderly. Reagan, who had complained that Carter was misrepresenting his positions on numerous issues, said with a chuckle: “There you go again.” The audience erupted. The duel attracted 80.6 million viewers, the most ever for a presidential debate, according to Nielsen, though Clinton v Trump is expected to shatter that record.

Read the full piece here:

Take it from a guy who was in Congress for 60 years:

(Dingell, 90, is a Democrat.)

Updated

This is going to be a zoo, isn’t it.....

That was in the mid-60s though. Something like $4,500 in current dollars.

Updated

American politics is not for sa– oh, Mr Adelson. Right this way:

This is unprecedented for any of the primary debates or the conventions, as far as we experienced or heard about: the powers that be at the debate site are scanning for rogue hotspot connections and disabling them so they can charge people to use the local network.

Update: there’s also a trigger warning placard outside the hall . – For a different event, we’re informed.

Updated

About 350 souvenir tickets to tonight’s debate for Hofstra University students misspell the Democratic nominee’s name:

Hofstra University spokeswoman Karla Schuster said in a statement emailed to NBC 4 New York:

These tickets are not official tickets to the debate. They were printed at the last minute to create a souvenir for the students. We’ll be reprinting them for all those who won tickets.

Updated

What will the first debate question be?

#ff @johnjharwood, who supplies precedents:

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 1976 to Carter: Your #1 priority is reducing unemployment. What specifically would your first step be next January?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 1980, to Carter - What are differences between the two of you on the uses of American military power?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 1984, to Reagan - In 1980 you promised to balance the budget. We’ve had bigger deficits. Do you have a secret plan?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 1992, to Perot - What do you believe tonight is the single most important separating issue of this campaign?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 1996, to Clinton - How would you define the difference in your view of the role of federal government w/Sen Dole?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 2000, to Gore - You’ve questioned that Gov Bush has the experience to be president of US. What exactly do you mean?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 2004, to Kerry - Do you believe you could do a better job than President Bush in preventing another 9/11?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 2008, to Obama and McCain - Where do you stand on the financial recovery plan?

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 2012, to Obama and Romney - What are major differences between the two of you about how you would create new jobs?

Which was the best first debate question?

Which would you use tonight? How about:

FIRST DEBATE QUESTIONS: 2016, to Trump and Clinton: You’re the two most loathed presidential nominees in US history. Why do you think that is?

Trump arrives at Hofstra

The reportorial pool attending Trump reports that he is on the scene now at Hofstra university. MSNBC had footage of him exiting an SUV and entering a building.

Anybody feeling butterflies yet?

Ben Wilke, 19, poses outside Hofstra University.
Ben Wilke, 19, poses outside Hofstra University. Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

The Guardian’s Dan Roberts, Sabrina Siddiqui and Ben Jacobs are on the scene at Hofstra university in Hempstead, New York:

Haters and losers and bears, oh my!

It’s that kind of night in America. (What is the Portland police department going to do if Trump wins the presidency? Send out a drunken driving advisory for every state of the union address, every Brady briefing room appearance, every time Trump walks out of the White House and gets his helicopter?)

(@monachalabi)

Trump directed erstwhile income to foundation – report

The Trump campaign has elected not to answer questions about suspect donations by the Trump foundation – seemingly for political purposes – or purchases by the foundation – seemingly to cover Trump’s personal costs, or even to settle lawsuits tied to Trump’s for-profit businesses.

We know all about the strange way the Trump foundation operates thanks to dogged reporting by David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post.

Late this afternoon, Farenthold published another bombshell: after Trump stopped giving money to his foundation years ago, it received millions in payments from companies that owed money to Trump or one of his businesses “but were instructed to pay Trump’s tax-exempt foundation instead, according to people familiar with the transactions”.

From the Post report:

In cases where he diverted his own income to his foundation, tax experts said, Trump would still likely be required to pay taxes on the income. Trump has refused to release his personal tax returns. His campaign said he paid income tax on one of the donations, but did not respond to questions about the others.

That gift was a $400,000 payment from Comedy Central, which owed Trump an appearance fee for his 2011 “roast.”

Then there were payments totaling nearly $1.9 million from a man in New York City who sells sought-after tickets and one-of-a-kind experiences to wealthy clients.

That man, Richard Ebers, bought goods and services — including tickets — from Trump or his businesses, according to two people familiar with the transactions, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the payments. They said that Ebers was instructed to pay the Donald J. Trump Foundation instead. Ebers did not respond to requests for comment.

The gifts begin to answer one of the mysteries surrounding the foundation: Why would other people continue giving to Trump’s charity when Trump himself gave his last recorded donation in 2008?

Read the full piece here.

Here’s Guardian Washington correspondent David Smith with a longer explanation for that series of Barack Obama photos a couple blocks back:

Barack Obama was honoured in a traditional blanketing ceremony on Monday and sought to reassure American Indians and Alaska Natives that his departure from office will not mean they are forgotten.

Obama has visited more of America’s 567 federally recognised tribal communities than any president and was introduced at their annual White House conference as a man who “kept his campaign promises”. There is trepidation in Indian Country at the possibility of Donald Trump taking his place.

The president donned a hat and was wrapped in a blanket by Brian Cladoosby, president of the National Congress of American Indians and chairman of the Swinomish Indian Tribe, as an honour song filled the Mellon Auditorium. Cladoosby praised Obama’s legacy on Native American issues and warned delegates that “there is no guarantee going forward there will be the same commitment from the next administration”.

Tip o’ the basket.
Tip o’ the basket. Photograph: AUDE GUERRUCCI / POOL/EPA

Obama described it as an “amazing honour” before removing the hat and blanket and giving a short speech that noted his administration had restored more than 428,000 acres of tribal homelands to their original owners. “I’ve been proud of what we’ve been able to do together,” he said. “We haven’t solved every issue. We haven’t righted every wrong. But together, we’ve made significant progress in almost every area.”

The president continued: “We’ve got to keep fighting to the finish line. Even after my time in this office comes to an end, I’m going to be standing alongside you because I believe that, yes, our progress depends in part on who sits in the Oval Office, and whether they’re setting the right priorities, but lasting progress depends on all of us, not just who the president is.”

Demonstrators gathered half a block away to protest against a $3.7 billion oil pipeline near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. Obama was applauded as he acknowledged the controversy: “I know that many of you have come together across tribes and across the country to support the community at Standing Rock. And together, you’re making your voices heard.”

Interior secretary Sally Jewell told the conference that the administration will soon ask federal agencies to require that Native American treaty rights be considered in decision-making on natural resource projects.

Updated

Green party candidate ejected from debate vicinity

First the commission on presidential debates excluded Green party candidate Jill Stein from the debate stage.

Now Stein has been ejected from the vicinity:

Stein was escorted off campus. Gothamist has further:

A Nassau County police spokesperson told the Long Island Press that Stein lacked the appropriate credentials to be on campus ahead of tonight’s presidential debate.

Let’s do this. President Barack Obama receives a traditional blanket and hat during the 2016 White House Tribal Nations Conference at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium, September 26, 2016, Washington, DC.
Let’s do this. President Barack Obama receives a traditional blanket and hat during the 2016 White House Tribal Nations Conference at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium, September 26, 2016, Washington, DC. Photograph: Pool/Getty Images
Hm.
Hm. Photograph: AUDE GUERRUCCI / POOL/EPA
Cheese.
Cheese. Photograph: AUDE GUERRUCCI / POOL/EPA

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Still time to run out and grab dinner before the debate. Thanksgiving dinner:

Fifty-six years ago today: John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon.

More than half a century ago tonight, more than 60 million Americans tuned in to the first televised presidential debate in American history. ABC News’ Bob Fleming hosted the hour-long debate between then-senator John F. Kennedy and then-vice president Richard Nixon, each of whom were allowed to give one eight-minute opening statement (that’s pretty long!) and were allowed 150 seconds to answer a series of questions from Fleming, with a 90-second opportunity for rebuttal. The closing remarks were three minutes long.

Those watching the televised debate saw Kennedy - young, handsome and recently tanned after a trip in California - as the victor, while dismissing Nixon as appearing sweaty, uncomfortable and untrustworthy.* Radio listeners, meanwhile, gave Nixon the edge.

*Of course, time would later prove the superficial judgments of the American television-watching public to be depressingly accurate.

Trump campaign releases white paper on economic plan

Hours before his upcoming televised duel with Hillary Clinton at Hofstra University on Long Island, Donald Trump’s campaign has released a white paper for his full economic policies, a first for his campaign.

Donald Trump signing a $5 bill.
Donald Trump signing a $5 bill. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

“Donald Trump’s economic plan proposes tax cuts, reduced regulation, lower energy costs and eliminating America’s chronic trade deficit,” the campaign stated in a release, describing the 31-page paper penned by economist and policy advisor Peter Navarro and leveraged buyout billionaire Wilbur Ross. “Trump’s goal is to significantly increase America’s real GDP growth rate and thereby create millions of additional new jobs and trillions of dollars of additional income and tax revenues.”

The Trump plan, the campaign states, “generates positive and substantial tax revenue offsets from its synergistic suite of trade, regulatory and energy policy reforms,” a frequent claim made by laissez faire economists.

The report purports to fill “analytical gap” from the non-partisan Tax Foundation’s analysis of Trump’s tax plan, which the Tax Foundation deduced would reduce government revenue by between $2.6 trillion and $3.9 trillion.

The campaign release incorrectly implies that “the Tax Foundation does not score other elements of the Trump economic plan that are growth-inducing and therefore revenue-generating.” In fact, the $3.9 trillion figure accounts for what Trump says would be a larger economy - without that as a given, Trump’s plan would reduce federal revenue by between $4.4 trillion and $5.9 trillion, according to the tax foundation.

Updated

Hillary Clinton has made an aggressive play for younger voters this cycle, highlighting her campaign’s message of diversity and inclusiveness compared to that of Donald Trump, ’s history of “a candidate with a long history of racial discrimination in his businesses, who retweets white supremacists, who led the birther movement to delegitimize our first black president.”

But on the day of the first presidential debate of the general election campaign, Trump has jumped ahead of Clinton on sheer millennial-era social media savvy with the creation of a nationwide Snapchat geofilter, which allows Snapchat users to shoot a selfie of themselves under the banner “Donald J. Trump vs. Crooked Hillary,” as red-and-blue fireworks explode above his campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again.”

Debate Day Snapchat
Debate Day Snapchat Photograph: Snapchat

(Yes, that’s me.)

It’s an unusual technical fail on the part of the Clinton campaign, which famously bought anti-Trump geofilters during the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July.

Updated

A classic from John Kasich’s former senior strategist:

Another poll shows Clinton leading ahead of tonight's debate

Six hours before the first presidential debate of the 2016 general election campaign, a new poll from NBC News and SurveyMonkey’s weekly tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, with no change from the week before.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson trails behind with 10% support, and Green nominee Jill Stein has 3% support. In a face-to-face matchup against Trump, Clinton increases her lead to 7 points, 51% to 44%, an increase from last week’s margin of 5 points.

Weekly tracking numbers.
Weekly tracking numbers. Photograph: NBC News/SurveyMonkey

Fact check: The Republicans were not a “third-party” in the traditional sense, since the Whig party was declared “dead - dead - dead!” by senior members in 1852 after a demonstrative loss to Democratic presidential candidate Franklin Pierce. The party was later functionally split in two, Solomon-style, by the passage of the Kansas-Nebraska act that led to “Bleeding Kansas,” and had functionally ceased to exist by 1860.

Donald Trump is too 'mentally challenged' for Between Two Ferns, says Zach Galifianakis

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s appearance on Zach Galifianakis’ hit comedy web series Between Two Ferns has shattered viewership records for the show, but that doesn’t mean its host wants a repeat performance with her rival for the presidency.

“No - that doesn’t interest me,” Galifianakis told the Los Angeles Times about doing a segment with Donald Trump. “Doing it the other way doesn’t interest me.”

Trump, Galifianakis said, is “the kind of guy who likes attention - bad attention or good attention. So you’re dealing with a psychosis there that’s a little weird.” He continued: “I wouldn’t have somebody on that’s so mentally challenged. And you can print that.”

Clinton’s willingness to be skewered in Between Two Ferns is not without precedent: in 2014, Barack Obama gamely appeared on the show to talk about healthcare. The interview was watched online more than 11m times on its first day online, increasing traffic to healthcare.gov by 40%.

This Priorities USA ad might be a little too subtle:

The government’s key witness in the George Washington Bridge lane-closing case testified on Monday that he interpreted an email from one of the defendants that it was “time for some traffic problems” as an order to put a political revenge plot into action and that he immediately told Governor Chris Christie’s campaign manager.

David Wildstein.
David Wildstein. Photograph: Julio Cortez/AP

David Wildstein worked for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the agency that operates New York-area bridges, tunnels, ports and airports. He pleaded guilty last year to conspiring to cause traffic gridlock near the bridge to punish Fort Lee’s Democratic mayor for not endorsing the Republican governor.

Bridget Kelly, Christie’s former deputy chief of staff, has claimed the email from mid-August 2013 was a joke, but Wildstein testified on Monday that he didn’t take it as one.

“I understood that to mean it was time to change the lanes configuration at the upper level of the George Washington Bridge in order to create traffic in the borough of Fort Lee,” Wildstein said. “We had had joking emails before. I did not think she was joking.”

Wildstein also said he told Christie’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, about the plot within 24 hours of that email and told him that he would create a traffic study as a cover story.

While his running mate goes toe-to-toe with Donald Trump in the first presidential debate of the general election campaign tonight, Virginia senator Tim Kaine will join the Human Rights Campaign for a debate watch party in Orlando tonight, along with former congresswoman Gabby Giffords and her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly.

The trio will join HRC president Chad Griffin as part of its #TurnOUT campaign, which aims to register and mobilize LGBTQ voters in battleground states to support pro-gay and pro-gun control candidates.

“What we do between now and Election Day will determine the kind of America we wake up to November 9th,” Griffin said in a statement. “Our ground game is stronger than ever. But we’ve also dedicated significant resources to actionable and effective online organizing efforts - from tweet-ups, and Snapchat filters, geo-targeted ads, and more, HRC is fighting to ensure the voice of our community is heard loud and clear this November.”

How are Clinton and Trump polling before the first debate?

In January, I wrote that “in the first 26 days of this year, 186 political polls were released”. Since then, I’ve lost count.

Hostra University students playing the roles of the candidates and moderator go through a rehearsal for the first presidential debate at Hofstra University.
Hostra University students playing the roles of the candidates and moderator go through a rehearsal for the first presidential debate at Hofstra University. Photograph: Rick Wilking/Reuters

New numbers are released every day by different organizations (some academic, some corporate and some media businesses themselves), and they all depict a slightly different political reality.

To state the obvious, in 2016 political reality is very different from that of previous presidential elections. And not just because the two remaining candidates are the least popular for more than 30 years. It’s also because polls, which have come to be the manna of political analysts, now offer less help in making sense of it all.

In past elections, the polls had settled down by Labor Day. This year, they continue to point all over the place. On Sunday, a survey by the Economist and YouGov found that Hillary Clinton had a lead of 4%. Less than 24 hours later, a poll from the LA Times and USC Tracking put Donald Trump 4% ahead.

Both pollsters are considered credible, which makes this even more confusing.

This series is intended to help you make sense of the ceaseless onslaught of numbers by taking a closer look at just one poll. But to start us off, I want to talk about a crucial tool in polling analysis: the average.

The site Real Clear Politics (RCP) takes the average of all recent credible polls to create a moving average. Right now, RCP has Clinton with 45.9% of the vote while Trump has 43.8%, meaning that the Democratic nominee is ahead by 2.1%.

Notice how Democrats aren’t singing from the rooftops or gloating on Twitter? It’s because 2.1% means nothing.

It’s so small, it could be down to errors in the ways that polls are conducted. It’s so narrow, it could easily be reversed by individuals who change their mind or who are not honestly disclosing how they plan to vote.

The takeaway? Going into tonight’s debate, the two candidates are neck and neck.

But how much do debates matter? As my former colleague Lauren Leatherby haspointed out, they have hurt candidates in the polls (see Barack Obama in 2012 and George Bush in 2004). But ultimately those candidates have been able to recover by election day (see, uh, the same candidates).

So even if tonight produces a clear loser, the November vote is not a done deal.

Monmouth poll: Clinton has 4-point lead over Trump

Eight hours before going toe-to-toe at the first presidential debate of the general election campaign, Hillary Clinton has a four-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters nationwide, according to a just-released Monmouth University poll. It’s a three-point drop from her lead one month ago, but a more positive position than the latest numbers from Bloomberg, which show Trump taking the lead in race that includes third-party candidates.

Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton Photograph: Matt Rourke/AP

Clinton is currently polling at 46% among likely voters, according to Monmouth, while Trump commands the support of 42% of likely voters. Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson is polling at 8% in the survey and Green nominee Jill Stein is at 2%. Among all registered voters, and not just those most likely to vote in the upcoming election, Clinton leads with 45%, while Trump falls slightly further behind with 40% Trump.

Among her compatriots in the Democratic party, Clinton has the support of 91% of party members, while Trump has won 85% of Republicans. This is an improvement for Trump, who previously counted only one-in-four Republican voters in his corner. Monmouth’s polling suggests that independents are cutting right, supporting Trump over Clinton by 39% to 33%, a precipitous drop for the former secretary of state, who held a five-point lead among independent voters in late August.

The generation gaps are in keeping with previous polling. Clinton leads among millennial voters under the age of 35 by 48% to Trump’s 28%, while voters 35 to 54 support Trump at and Clinton at 41%. For voters older than 55, support is similarly divided, with 47% supporting Clinton and 46% supporting Trump.

“Clinton’s support has softened since the summer, but she has still managed to grab a share of those who tend to vote Republican,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

The historically unpopular major-party candidates are still viewed negatively by large majorities of the electorate. According to the survey, 36% of voters view Clinton positively, while 54% view her negatively. Trump fares even worse - 32% of voters view him positively, and 57% view him negatively.

Three-in-four voters (75%) plan to watch tonight’s debate, but that doesn’t mean the debate will necessarily change minds: Only 48% of undecided voters or those supporting a third-party candidate plan to watch tonight, while eight-in-ten supporters of Clinton and Trump hope to watch.

“Pundits expect that a lot will be riding on the first debate. The voters? Not so much,” said Murray.

Five awkward questions Hillary Clinton might field tonight:

Trump v Clinton: an analysis of debate styles

What single policy should your campaign be known for?
Harder than it sounds, or should be, this question gets at a weakness which many critics feels lies at the heart of the campaign. Instead of one signature issue, Clinton has dozens of detailed policies on a host of subjects. It may make her a great president one day, but for now voters struggle to understand what slogans such as “stronger together” mean in practice. If Clinton were forced to pick one concrete thing for viewers to remember her for, what would it be?

Do you believe in globalisation?
Over many years in public life, the former secretary of state has understandably embraced an evolving set of economic positions. But few have come further than Clinton on the subject of free trade deals and the damage they may or may not have done to American manufacturing. She says she opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership now proposed by Obama, but is it a principled opposition or a mere pragmatic response to Trump? Are there limits to the benefits of globalisation for US workers?

How would your counter-terrorism policy differ from Obama’s?
In the face of continued terrorist attacks, the issue of “defending America” will be top of Monday’s agenda. Yet Clinton risks being caught between defending the legacy of an Obama administration in which she served and acknowledging that not everything is working out well right now. How would she defeat Islamic State? Would she be more or less hawkish in Iraq and Afghanistan? If nothing changes, then Trump may be able to pin her to a range of foreign policy failures.

Why are you so secretive?
From emails to pneumonia, Clinton has repeatedly got herself into trouble by going out of her way to hide information from the public. The obvious question is: what does she have to hide? The usual explanation is that Clinton has been on the receiving end of so many smears over the years that she has learned to be cautious, but this should also teach her to be wary of cover-ups. Why should someone who ignores medical advice to rest, or legal advice to keep email on government servers, be trusted to take wise decisions in office?

How would you reduce income inequality?
Supporters would argue that Clinton has provided many answers to this question: from infrastructure spending and a jobs program to minimum wage increases and taxing the rich. Yet many still wonder if a campaign so heavily funded by America’s rich and powerful really understands or is committed to helping its middle class. Her answers may be more nuanced than Trump’s crude protectionism, but they need to cut through with voters if she is to blunt his appeal in the rust belt.

What are the third-party candidates up to?

Jill Stein
Jill Stein Photograph: Derek Henkle/AFP/Getty Images

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will be the only two candidates to participate in tonight’s presidential debate at Hofstra University on Long Island - polling limitations have limited the field to just the two major-party candidates, as has happened in every presidential debate since 1992 - but that doesn’t mean that the other would-be presidents have given up on participating in some capacity.

Former New Mexico governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson will watch tonight’s debate from New York City with his running mate, Bill Weld, and will be livetweeting the proceedings from Twitter’s offices in Chelsea.

Green party nominee Jill Stein, meanwhile, plans to “literally insert herself” into the debate tonight, responding to each of the debate questions via Periscope livestream. Responses will also be livestreamed via Facebook Live on her Facebook page. “In effect, using a range of cutting-edge social media tools, Jill Stein will literally ‘insert’ herself into the debate process,” according to Meleiza Figueroa, Stein’s press director.

In the latest episode of Last Week Tonight, host John Oliver dedicated much of the show to make the case that Donald Trump’s worst scandals “trump” those of opponent Hillary Clinton.

To view the full episode in the US click here

“This campaign has been dominated by scandals, but it is dangerous to think that there is an equal number on both sides,” he said. “And you can be irritated by some of Hillary’s – that is understandable – but you should then be fucking outraged by Trump’s.

“Ethical failings in a politician are like raisins in a cookie,” he explained. “They shouldn’t be there. They disgust people. But most politicians have at least a few raisins.

“Hillary is a cookie like this one,” he said, holding an oatmeal raisin cookie. “She arguably has more raisins than average.”

As for Trump? “The man is a fucking raisin monsoon,” yelled Oliver, as a torrent of raisins rained down on his desk.

Updated

Three days after he endorsed onetime foe Donald Trump, Texas senator Ted Cruz sat down for an interview with one of his most infuriated former supporters: Glenn Beck.

The interview is, as you might imagine, extremely uncomfortable.

“I tried very very hard, as did you, to prevent it from being a binary choice between Hillary and Donald Trump and I think it is fair to say there was no other Republican candidate who left more on the field and did more to stop Donald from being the nominee than I did,” Cruz protested, “but the voters made a different decision and you have to respect the democratic process even if you may not be terribly happy with the outcome.”

In a statement posted to Facebook on Friday, Cruz declared that “after many months of careful consideration, of prayer and searching my own conscience, I have decided that on Election Day, I will vote for the Republican nominee, Donald Trump.”

Citing Trump’s release of a long list of potential supreme court justices he would nominate to replace the late Antonin Scalia, Cruz said that, in his eyes, the list indicated that the nominee is “critically committed that the only nominees he would consider for the court were on that list. Now that was a major shift.”

Five awkward questions Donald Trump might field tonight:

Trump v Clinton: an analysis of debate styles

How can you be trusted with the nuclear codes?
A symbolic question, but one that goes to the heart of concerns about Trump’s suitability for the job of commander-in-chief. He has made a number of erratic comments appearing to suggest a cavalier approach to nuclear proliferation; he has also threatened to undermine both Nato and a longstanding commitment to non-nuclear allies in Asia. Combining all this with a general belligerence that terrifies even generals, Trump has much to do to reassure voters he is not a dangerous loose cannon.

Did you support US intervention in Iraq and Libya?
Trump has tried to have his cake and eat it on the subject of Middle East policy, attacking Clinton for backing regime change in Iraq and Libya while implying he was opposed to both wars at the time. But though this real estate investor’s foreign policy views were not then widely sought out, there is a plenty of evidence to suggest he kept any opposition very quiet. Asked if he backed the invasion of Iraq, he said: “I guess so.”

Why would Mexico pay for you to build a wall?
The flagship policy of building a physical wall on the southern border is frequently embellished with a boast that Trump would make sure Mexico paid for its construction. A recent meeting with the Mexican president, however, made clear that this is highly unlikely. Trump appeared to mislead supporters almost immediately afterward and continues to ignore evidence that Mexican net migration into the US has dropped to near zero in recent years. The mechanics of his deportation policy are even vaguer.

Is there anyone you regret offending?
An open question that could lead Trump into uncharted territory. For over a year, the Republican nominee has outraged Muslims, African Americans, women, Latinos and disabled people with a series of ever-more outrageous comments. Any attempt to hold him to account for offensive language was dismissed as mere political correctness. Attacking the family of a Muslim war hero after the Democratic convention finally seemed to damage Trump in the polls, though, and prompted a half-apology. Who else will he say sorry to?

What evidence do you have against climate change?
Like many Republicans, Trump has repeatedly suggested that action to prevent man-made climate change is unnecessary because he does not “believe” it is real. He is even threatening to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord. Yet in the face of overwhelming evidence from world scientists, surely the onus is now on skeptics to prove their claims with facts and numbers of their own. What proof does Trump have that climate change is a “hoax”?

Updated

Jill Abramson: ‘Saving the country from Donald Trump isn’t enough of a message’

Hillary Clinton waves.
Hillary Clinton waves. Photograph: Carlos Barria/Reuters

Dear Hillary Clinton,

The debates give you the best opportunity to describe a real vision of where you want to lead the country and to get voters excited about a future you can help create as president.

Saving the country from Donald Trump isn’t enough of a message. Your toughness and readiness to do battle with him have been amply demonstrated. Most voters already know why they should not vote for Trump.

But they are not sure they can trust your leadership to bring about change in Washington, DC. They worry that you will be “more of the same.” So it’s vital that you have a crisp, forward-looking message about why you want to be president, where you’ll lead the country, and how you will improve the lives of people. Many of your specific policy proposals actually do this. Show that you are excited about enacting them and that you have a record of getting things done by building bipartisan alliances. Cite your accomplishments, so the audience knows it can count on you to get the job done. Rinse and repeat.

Stay on the high road and don’t let Trump drag you down.

Best of luck,

Jill Abramson

The topic of live fact-checking during tonight’s presidential debate has become one of the most heated issues relating to the first face-to-face confrontation between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump - we honestly can’t say why - and one network appears ready and willing to take on the challenge.

According to Politico, Bloomberg TV, which you might recognize as the most orange-data-choked channel in your cable package, will fact-check tonight’s debate at Hofstra University on Long Island in real time onscreen, setting it apart from other networks that don’t want to appear biased. (Biased towards reality, we guess?)

Anchor and debate host Lester Holt has a history of fact-checking during his interviews, but hasn’t made it known whether he plans on correcting falsehoods from either candidate. Janet Brown, the executive director of the Commission on Presidential Debates that organizes the debates every election, told CNN that “I don’t think it’s a good idea to get the moderator into essentially serving as the Encyclopedia Britannica,” and that “I’m not sure, what is the big fact, and what is a little fact?”

The Guardian will also be fact-checking tonight’s debate live.

Hillary Clinton announces guests for first debate

At 9pm tonight, Hillary Clinton will take to the stage at Hofstra University on Long Island with an audience of 100 million people watching at home - and four special guests in the debate hall itself.

Clinton’s guests to the debate “are people who she has worked with and fought for during her career in public service,” according to the campaign, which extended invitations to four voters who “embody some of the causes of [Clinton’s] career”:

  • Lauren Manning: One of the most severely injured survivors of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Manning spent more than six months in the hospital after sustaining burns to more than 80% of her body. Clinton, then serving as the junior senator from New York, met Manning in the hospital and worked with her upon her release for increased benefits for 9/11 survivors and first responders. Manning spoke at the Democratic National Convention this summer about her relationship with Clinton: “She came through. Not for the cameras, not because anyone was watching, but because that’s who she is. Kind. Caring. Loyal.”
  • Maxine Outerbridge: Outerbridge is a 27-year-old single mother and a survivor of domestic violence who credits the Children’s Health Insurance Program that Clinton helped create during her time as first lady with helping her get her college degree and work her way out of poverty.
  • Anastasia Somoza: Somoza, who has cerebral palsy, first met Clinton when she was 9 years old, and has since become an advocate for people with disabilities, serving as Clinton’s Special Advisor for International Disability Rights during Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state. Somoza is also the face of a new testimonial advertisement criticizing Donald Trump’s comments regarding a reporter with a disability: “I honestly feel bad for someone with so much hate in his heart.”
  • Aleatha Williams: Williams first met Clinton after becoming pen pals with the then-first lady as a student in the Bronx. Clinton continued the relationship for years, attending Williams’ high-school graduation.

During the first presidential debate tonight, the Guardian Mobile Innovation Lab and the Guardian US opinion desk will send experimental web notifications with real-time opinions from Guardian columnists as they watch the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

These experimental alerts, available to users of Android devices who have an updated Chrome browser installed on their phones, will supplement the news alerts sent from the Guardian’s Android app with reactions from Guardian columnists Richard Wolffe and Lucia Graves. They will be sent at key moments throughout the debate, while the Guardian app news alerts will provide only the most important updates. (The alerts can also be received through desktop Chrome browsers but unfortunately not iPhones. We’re working on a way to release iOS versions of our notifications experiments and hope to have that ready next month.)

During the debate, you will hear from the columnists with their quick takes on the candidates’ policy statements, their debating styles, and who’s winning and who’s losing.

This project is the latest installment in ongoing experimentation with notifications, part of the Mobile Lab’s mission to learn more about mobile storytelling. After the experiment, we’ll send out a survey soliciting feedback on the experience.

Sound interesting? Want to sign up? Web notifications are currently only available on Chrome on Android devices or desktop. If you have an Android mobile phone (Samsung, included!), open this page in a Chrome browser and tap to sign up.

Immigration officers endorse Donald Trump

A union representing 7,600 federal immigration officers has endorsed Donald Trump’s presidential bid ahead of the upcoming presidential debate tonight, a boon to a candidate who has made immigration the centerpiece of his campaign’s platform.

Donald Trump at a news conference near the U.S.- Mexico border outside of Laredo, Texas.
Donald Trump at a news conference near the U.S.- Mexico border outside of Laredo, Texas. Photograph: Rick Wilking/Reuters

In a statement, Chris Crane, the union’s president, blamed “the unconstitutional executive orders of President Obama, embraced by Hillary Clinton,” for regulations preventing the union’s members “from enforcing the most basic immigration laws.”

“Donald Trump reached out to us for a meeting, sat down with me to discuss his goals for enforcement, and pledged to support ICE officers, our nation’s laws and our members. In his immigration policy, he has outlined core policies needed to restore immigration security -- including support for increased interior enforcement and border security, an end to Sanctuary Cities, an end to catch-and-release, mandatory detainers, and the canceling of executive amnesty and non-enforcement directives.”

According to the statement, which characterized the union’s endorsement as a first in its history, Clinton received the support of only 5% of the union’s members.

The National Immigration and Customs Enforcement Council represents 7,600 officers, agents and employees who work for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a branch of the Department of Homeland Security responsible for responsible for security along the American border.

Hofstra University debate: what you need to know

With T-minus 12 hours until the first of three presidential debates between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, here’s a rundown of the whos, wheres and whens of tonight’s debate - including some predictions and runups from the Guardian’s crack political reporting team.

Workers make adjustments to the set for the first presidential debate at Hofstra University.
Workers make adjustments to the set for the first presidential debate at Hofstra University. Photograph: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Who: Aside from Clinton and Trump, the debate will be moderated by NBC’s Lester Holt, the most-watched daily news broadcaster in the country with a reputation as a persistent fact-checker despite a 12-year stint as a weekend morning host. Trump has expressed displeasure with the selection of Holt, dismissing him as a Democrat in an interview with Fox News last week. (Holt is a registered Republican.)

When: Tonight’s debate will begin at 9pm ET, running for 90 minutes without commercial interruption. The debate will consist of six sections, running approximately 15 minutes long apiece. Each of the six sections will begin with a question, with both candidates provided two minutes to answer. The candidates may also respond to direct mentions, accusations or calumnies made by their opponent, and Holt may ask follow-up questions.

Holt has separated the debate into three themes so nebulous as to be almost meaningless: “America’s Direction,” “Achieving Prosperity” and “Securing America.” Whether or not these blocks are divided into 30-minute segments depends on the succinctness of the candidates’ answers and Holt’s willingness-slash-ability to reign them in.

Where: The debate will be held at Hofstra University on Long Island, which also hosted presidential debates in 2008 between then-Illinois senator Barack Obama and Arizona senator John McCain and in 2012 between President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. It is the only university to ever host three consecutive presidential debates.

Kellyanne Conway, Donald Trump’s campaign manager - well, by title, anyway - disputed characterizing Trump’s insistence that NBC anchor and debate moderator Lester Holt is a Democrat (factually inaccurate, as voter registration records show that Holt is a registered Republican), asserting that Trump can’t lie when he doesn’t know he’s saying something that’s not true.

For those who haven’t read Harry Frankfurt’s On Bullshit - we recommend it for this and every election year - here’s a salient line from the tome:

It is impossible for someone to lie unless he thinks he knows the truth. Producing bullshit requires no such conviction.

Updated

Donald Trump takes lead in Bloomberg poll hours before debate

Good morning and welcome to the Guardian’s campaign live blog.

The stage is set for the presidential debate.
The stage is set for the presidential debate. Photograph: Patrick Semansky/AP

Mere hours before the most highly anticipated presidential debate in generations – 74% of Americans plan to watch tonight, according to an ABC/Washington Post survey – both nationwide and swing state polls have tightened to a statistical dead heat between former first lady, New York senator and secretary of state Hillary Clinton and real estate tycoon Donald Trump. In some polls, the Republican nominee has taken a small lead.

A new poll from Bloomberg, released Monday morning, shows the candidates locking horns with the support of 46% of likely voters in a head-to-head contest, with Trump up 43% to 41% with the inclusion of third-party candidates. A meaningful national poll, the Bloomberg survey suggests Trump has fully recovered from his post-convention flameout. Over the weekend, a Washington Post/ABC poll put Clinton two points ahead among likely voters, 46% to 44%. A survey by the Morning Consult website gave Trump an edge of one point.

Similarly positive numbers for Trump in Colorado and must-win Pennsylvania indicate that while eight in 10 voters say their minds are made up, tonight’s contest at Hofstra University in New York could prove decisive.

Trump v Clinton: an analysis of debate styles

Over the weekend, as the 90-minute matchup between two candidates with vastly different debating styles, skills and sensibilities approached, the fight became increasingly dirty. Trump reacted to news that the Clinton campaign had invited critic and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban by musing that he might invite Gennifer Flowers, a former model who had an extramarital encounter with Bill Clinton in the 1980s. Flowers told news outlets she had accepted an invitation; the Trump campaign later denied that Flowers was invited.

Updated

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