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The spotlight is back on semiconductor stocks as earnings season kicks off, and Intel (INTC) is set to take center stage. On April 24, after the closing bell, the company will report its Q1 2025 results. With rising geopolitical tensions and potential tariff changes stirring up a “buying frenzy,” analysts are eager to see whether Intel has effectively capitalized on this short-term demand spike.
A combination of new import tariffs and export restrictions on some semiconductor products have recently driven OEMs and enterprise buyers to accelerate their chip purchases. Analysts argue that this rush will temporarily boost demand, especially for notebook and desktop CPUs, likely inflating Intel’s Q1 numbers. However, it also sets the stage for a potential drop-off in Q2, as customers work through their stockpiled inventory.
Investors will closely watch management’s forward guidance to assess how post-tariff ordering trends are shaping up and whether the current momentum has staying power.
About Intel Stock
With a market capitalization of around $85 billion, Intel remains a leading force in the global semiconductor arena. The company is renowned for its microprocessors, chipsets, and integrated GPUs that power PCs, servers, and data centers worldwide. Despite its legacy of x86 innovation and deep entrenchment across AI, enterprise, and cloud markets, Intel’s recent stock performance has been underwhelming.
Over the past 52 weeks, Intel shares have tumbled nearly 40%, pressured by financial setbacks, leadership changes, and foundry delays. Geopolitical factors like tariff uncertainty, export controls, and U.S.–China tensions have added to the decline.
What to Expect from Intel’s Q1 Earnings
In the previous quarter, Intel delivered a double-beat performance, reporting $14.26 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $0.13. However, that beat masked a deeper trend. Revenue was still down 7% year-over-year, with former CEO Pat Gelsinger attributing the softness to potential tariff impacts and lingering supply chain challenges.
For Q1 2025, expectations remain muted. Wall Street forecasts $12.31 billion in revenue, which represents a 3.2% decline from the year-ago quarter. Earnings are also expected to fall, underscoring the continued weakness in Intel’s core businesses.
That said, Q1 might show an artificial lift due to an unusual driver: a “tariff frenzy.” Analysts, including Susquehanna Research’s Chris Rolland, believe the company likely saw a temporary spike in notebook CPU demand as customers, anticipating potential import tariffs under President Donald Trump, rushed to front-load PC chip orders. This pull-forward demand may have propped up Q1 numbers, particularly in the Client Computing Group.
However, this presents a double-edged sword. While the Q1 results could benefit from this rush of buying, the real risk is what comes next. Once those customers work through their inflated inventories, Q2 could see a significant drop-off in orders. That’s why investors and analysts alike will be paying close attention to Intel’s guidance and management commentary during the April 24 earnings call.
Where Intel Could Find Growth Again
Despite all these headwinds, Intel’s AI PC ambitions might be its clearest path back to relevance. With the AI PC market expected to grow at a blistering 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), Intel is gunning to ship over 100 million AI PCs by the end of 2025, an aggressive but not impossible target. If successful, this pivot would help revive a segment still weighed down by weak desktop demand. And with the upcoming Panther Lake chips, built on the company’s long-awaited 18A process node, Intel may finally have the silicon to match the ambition.
Furthermore, Intel’s foundry business may hold even greater promise. The company’s strategic positioning on U.S. soil gives it a rare edge amid rising geopolitical frictions and looming tariffs. A potential partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) and whispers of a joint venture with Taiwan Semi (TSM) suggest the tides are turning. If executed well, Intel could not only regain its strength but redefine its future as a global contract chipmaker.
Is Intel Stock a Buy now?
Analysts are currently taking a cautious stance on Intel, with a consensus “Hold” rating. Among 36 Wall Street analysts, the sentiment is split. One analyst rates the stock a “Strong Buy,” 31 recommend “Hold,” and four suggest a “Strong Sell.”
Despite the neutral outlook, the average price target of $24 suggests there could still be upside potential of around 20% from current levels.
