Costco Wholesale (COST) is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Sept. 25 after the market closes. Many investors are focused on whether the company can uphold its membership model’s strength, manage margin pressures in the current retail environment, and continue pushing forward in e-commerce — all while navigating tariffs, supply-chain volatility, and changing consumer habits.
Meanwhile, Costco’s August sales report posted on Sept. 4 was met positively by investors, triggering a multi-day rally for COST stock. The retailer delivered $21.6 billion in net sales, an increase of 8.7% from the year-ago quarter.
About Costco Stock
Headquartered in Issaquah, Washington, Costco is a leading membership-warehouse retailer that operates large, no-frills stores offering bulk goods, groceries, appliances, and the company's Kirkland Signature private label. Costco is known for its strong membership fee model, low markups, and a focus on offering value to consumers. It boasts a market capitalization of around $429 billion.
COST stock has had a somewhat mixed run of late. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, COST stock is up by a modest 6%. Similarly, over the past 52 weeks, shares have surged 6%. The upbeat August sales report has helped push COST higher in the short term, but the stock currently trades about 10% below its 52-week high of $1,078.23, which was reached on Feb. 13.
Costco stock continues to face rising merchandise costs, tariff uncertainties, and margin compression as key headwinds that are likely constraining upside.
The stock currently trades at a lofty valuation compared to industry peers at 48.58 times forward earnings.
Costco's Steady Q3 Results
Costco released its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 29. The company reported net sales of about $62 billion, an increase of roughly 8% year-over-year (YOY). Net income came in at $1.9 billion, or $4.28 per share, slightly higher than the consensus estimate and up from $1.7 billion, or $3.78 per share, a year earlier. Membership fee income rose 10.4% YOY to $1.2 billion.
Global comparable store sales increased 5.7%, with the U.S. up 6.6%, Canada up 2.9%, and Other International locations up 3.2%. When adjusted for gasoline price volatility and foreign exchange effects, comparable sales growth was stronger. U.S. comps rose 7.9%, Canada climbed 7.8%, and Other International rose 8.5%. E-commerce also performed well, with comparable e-commerce sales growth of 14.8%, rising to 15.7% adjusted.
During the period, Costco operated 905 warehouses. Meanwhile, its e-commerce sites are in the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia.
Looking ahead to Costco’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release after market close on Sept. 25, the consensus EPS estimate of $5.79 reflects an increase of 12% YOY. Analysts also anticipate EPS to rise 12% YOY to $17.97 for the full fiscal year, before improving another 10% to $19.85 in fiscal 2026.
What Do Analysts Expect for Costco Stock?
On Sept. 5, Truist Securities reaffirmed its “Hold” rating on Costco with a $1,042 price target after the company’s strong August sales report. While acknowledging Costco’s ability to attract value-conscious shoppers, Truist remains cautious due to COST stock’s premium valuation.
Wall Street remains moderately bullish on COST stock. Overall, shares have a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the 34 analysts covering the stock, 15 advise a “Strong Buy,” four suggest a “Moderate Buy,” and 15 recommend a “Hold” rating.
The average analyst price target for COST stock is $1,092.44, indicating potential upside of 13%. The Street-high target price of $1,225 suggests that the stock could rally as much as 27% from here.
