Today, July 15th, is the deadline for NFL teams to reach an agreement on a long-term extension with players that the organizations placed franchise tags upon. If the parties fail to agree to new contracts by 4 p.m. ET, the players will play the 2020 NFL season on the one-year franchise tag.
As of this morning, there are 13 players facing this situation, including two (A.J. Green and Yannick Ngakoue) who have not even signed the franchise tag offer. Here is a look at all 13 situations with a prediction as to what happens by the deadline.
The players are listed in alphabetical order.
Shaquil Barrett, EDGE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Franchise Tag Salary: $15.828 million
Status: Last season was a true breakout campaign for the EDGE defender. An undrafted free agent out of Colorado State in the 2014 draft class, Barrett signed with the hometown Denver Broncos as a free agent. Over four seasons in Denver, he mustered a total of 15 sacks.
Then he found a new home in Tampa Bay, and last year was his true breakout season. He put a whopping 20 sacks on the board, along with 82 quarterback pressures, 18 quarterback hits and 44 QB hurries. He also added his first career interception, when he picked off Jared Goff back in Week 4.
Both sides want to reach a long-term deal, and from Barrett’s position you can understand why. The Buccaneers are the “hot team” in the NFL right now, with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski now in town. Furthermore, Barrett was part of a big defensive turnaround in Tampa Bay. What could complicate matters is the cap space issue. As of this moment the Buccaneers have just $4,873,799 available under the cap, although that factors in the franchise tag amount for Barrett. Surely Jason Licht can find a way to make the numbers work.
Prediction: Extension reached.
Bud Dupree, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Franchise Tag Salary: $15.828 million
Status: The Pittsburgh Steelers finally got the kind of production they were banking on in 2019 when they made Bud Dupree their first-round selection in the 2015 NFL Draft. He posted career numbers in quarterback pressures (51), sacks (13) and tackles (40). Both head coach Mike Tomlin and general manager Kevin Colbert insist that bringing Dupree back on an extension is the goal, and used the franchise tag as a means of working towards that resolution.
During free agency, the Steelers were in a tight cap position, but now they have freed up nearly six million in cap space. That should be enough to get an extension done, although Colbert might need to be a bit creative with the structure of the deal.
Prediction: Extension reached.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Franchise Tag Salary: $17.865 million
Status: After seeing him sit out the 2019 season with an injury, Cincinnati Bengals fans are hopeful that A.J. Green can be part of a resurgence in Cincinnati along with first-overall selection Joe Burrow. If you look at this roster, particularly on the offensive side of the football, you can see why Bengals fans are hopeful. Burrow certainly showed promise last year when he led the LSU Tigers to a National Championship, and Joe Mixon is one of the NFL’s more complete running backs. Adding Green into the mix with John Ross, Tyler Boyd and second-rounder Tee Higgins make for a potentially explosive offense.
The big question is Green. He has played in just one of Cincinnati’s last 24 games, and the Bengals might be in a position where they are willing to play a bit of hardball as a result of that fact.
Prediction: Franchise tag season.
Anthony Harris, S, Minnesota Vikings
Franchise Tag Salary: $11.411 million
Status: Over the past two seasons, Anthony Harris has emerged as one of the NFL’s top players at the safety position. Along with Harrison Smith, he gives the Minnesota Vikings perhaps the best tandem of safeties in the entire league. While Smith plies his trade down in the box for the most part, Harris is more of your prototypical center fielder. He shows tremendous range on the field, and is a ballhawk on the back half of the Vikings’ defense.
Minnesota was in a very precarious cap position when free agency began, but thanks to letting some players walk in free agency – along with trading Stefon Diggs – they have more than enough space to reach a deal. Would you want to break up the best safety tandem in the league, particularly when you’re looking at playing one or two rookie corners on passing downs?
Prediction: Extension reached.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Franchise Tag Salary: $10.278 million
Status: You just know that this is one of a few contract situations that is going to be watched carefully over the next few hours. Running backs are a short-term commodity in today’s game, with the emphasis on the passing attack and the short life span of most players at the position, given the wear and tear on their bodies. Derrick Henry had a huge season last year, helping lead the Tennessee Titans to the AFC Championship Game, but Tennessee first reached a long-term extension with quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
However, if the Titans want to continue a run-heavy, play-action offense, Henry is the kind of back that can be brutally impactful in such a scheme. Plus, the Titans have a ton of cap space, nearly $20 million available to them to make a deal happen.
Prediction: Extension reached.
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Franchise Tag Salary: $10.607 million
Status: When healthy, Hunter Henry is a model tight end for the modern NFL era. He can be that mismatch type of player, who can run from both linebackers, safeties and even cornerback alike. The problem is the health factor. Over the past few season Henry has missed a lot of time, including five games last year. But even in limited action, he found time to set career-high marks in catches, targets and yardage. Even more astounding is when you consider the great tight ends who have wore the powder blues, Henry already is a top ten player at the position for the Chargers in terms of receptions, yards and touchdown catches. That is exactly the kind of player you want in the huddle when you are transitioning to a new quarterback in either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert.
Prediction: Extension reached.
Matthew Judon, EDGE, Baltimore Ravens
Franchise Tag Salary: $15.828 million
Status: Matthew Judon was a darling of the #DraftTwitter world during the 2016 cycle. As a small school player, those who got deep into the evaluation weeds loved the raw talent that Judon put on film. The Baltimore Ravens made him their fifth-round pick that season, and he was an instant contributor, notching four sacks as a rookie.
Last year was a big one for him, as he tallied career-high numbers in sacks, pressured, hurries and tackles. An area where the Ravens’ defense struggled in 2019 was in generating pressure, and losing him would be detrimental to their hopes for making a Super Bowl run. During an offseason where they looked to beef up their defense, you would think Judon would be a big part of their 2020 plans.
Prediction: Extension reached.
Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Franchise Tag Salary: $17.788 million
Status: This is one situation that reached a high boil during free agency and has been sitting at a quick simmer ever since. Yannick Ngakoue has informed the Jacksonville Jaguars in no uncertain terms that he wants to leave town, and has no interest in signing a long-term deal. After all, he is basically the current defensive equivalent of this image:
Most of his running mates from the Jaguars’ great defense of years ago, such as Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye, are in new uniforms. In fact, on Wednesday morning Adam Schefter posted this update to Twitter:
This one seems to be heading to a divorce.
Prediction: Tag and trade.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Franchise Tag Salary: $31.4 million
Status: When Patrick Mahomes signed his market-setting contract extension, that sound you heard was not just the roar of relief in Kansas City. It was also the sound of rage coming from Jerry Jones’ yacht. Because having failed to negotiate a long-term deal with Dak Prescott prior to that moment, now the calculus changed for the negotiations. Sure, Prescott is not worth “Mahomes Money,” but teams are not in the business of letting top-level quarterbacks walk in free agency. You would expect the sides to come to a deal, but it might not materialize just yet:
Prediction: This one is a bit tricky. You can see a “Kirk Cousins” type scenario where Prescott simply plays under the tag and looks to do it again next season if a deal is not made to his liking. So we’ll say franchise tag season for 2020.
Brandon Scherff, G, Washington
Franchise Tag Salary: $14.781 million
Status: Interior offensive lineman rarely move the needle during free agency, but this year’s crop of players contained two of the NFL’s best offensive guards. One is Brandon Scherff, who has been a mainstay on the Washington offensive line since his rookie season. He is a force in the running game but also a solid pass protection. For an offense lacking weapons and facing questions about their young quarterback, you would think keeping one of their best linemen in the mix would be a no-brainer. He also has a fan in new head coach Ron Rivera, who said recently in an interview that “…[w]ell the plan is to continue to work with his agent and see what we can get worked out, more so than anything else. But Brandon, most certainly, is somebody that we really believe is a big part of our offensive line and we’ll see how things work out.”
Prediction: Extension reached.
Justin Simmons, S, Denver Broncos
Franchise Tag Salary: $11.441 million
Status: This situation is baffling to me, but that might stem from how I view the safety position, and Justin Simmons himself. The young defender has blossomed into one of the game’s top safeties, and given the importance of the position, it would see to be a no-brainer to reach an agreement.
However, it would seem the parties are currently far apart:
Denver has more than enough cap space to make a deal, and if it were up to me, the contract would be signed by now. John Elway, it seems, has other thoughts.
Prediction: Franchise tag season.
Joe Thuney, G, New England Patriots
Franchise Tag Salary: $14.781 million
Status: The New England Patriots are another team that was on the edge of salary cap oblivion just a few months ago, to the point that chuckleheads like me thought it next to impossible that the organization could get Cam Newton in on a free agent contract. But Bill Belichick often finds a way, and now the Patriots are in much better cap position given recent settlements on two contracts: Antonio Brown and Aaron Hernandez.
That makes the likelihood of Thuney and the team reaching a deal all the more reasonable. As the team looks to transition to a new quarterback – likely Newton – they would love to keep the core of their offense, which is the offensive line, intact. Thuney is a critical piece of their offensive line, and facing a season without Dante Scarnecchia makes a veteran presence all the more necessary.
Prediction: Extension reached.
Leonard Williams, DT, New York Giants
Franchise Tag Salary: $16.126 million
Status: The New York Giants traded for Leonard Williams prior to the trade deadline last season, and in eight games Williams produced 20 quarterback pressures and 14 quarterback hurries, where were the best among New York defensive linemen over his stretch of play. Having sent the New York Jets a third- and a fifth-round pick for him, you would think the organization would want to make sure they keep him in the fold. But this is how organizations sometimes tie their hands behind their own back. Having made such a commitment to him, in terms of draft capital, letting him walk in free agency would be almost disastrous. But are you willing as an organization to give big money to a player who really has yet to live up to his first-round hype?
The Giants might not have any other choice.
Prediction: Extension reached.
