Soros: Trump is doing the work of ISIS
George Soros then went on to launch an astonishing attack on Donald Trump, saying that he was doing “the work of Isis”.
He added:
“By fearmongering he and (Ted) Cruz are doing the work of Isis.
They want people to turn against the Muslim community and make the Muslim community think there is no alternative to terrorism. It turns the Muslim community into a breeding ground for Isis.
"Donald Trump is doing the work of ISIS," says George Soros in #Davos. Says "the others, Cruz and so on" are as well.
— Felix Salmon (@felixsalmon) January 21, 2016
Last month, Donald Trump called for a “total and complete shutdown” on Muslims entering the US.
This prompted a huge petition to have the businessman and presidential candidate banned from the UK, which MPs debated earlier this week. During the debate, Trump was labelled (among other things) a “ridiculous xenophobe”.
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Soros said Vladimir Putin was making the crisis worse by his bombing of civilians in Syria.
“He wants the EU to collapse.”
Soros: Refugee panic is like a cinema fire
Soros then warned that European countries were in crisis, due to the number of people who have fled to the region:
“We have reached a tipping point where the influx reduces the capacity of receiving countries assimilate or integrate the refugees and we have a panic.
It is like a cinema on fire without exit signs.”
Soros: #WEF16 Panic over refugees is like a cinema fire without emergency exits.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) January 21, 2016
Soros said 2016 was going to be a difficult year. There would be no further rate rises from the Federal Reserve and the ECB would ease policy in March, he predicted (as Mario Draghi hinted today).
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Soros: EU in existential crisis over migration
George Soros, the billionaire financier turned philanthropist, has warned the World Economic Forum tonight that the migration crisis is putting the European Union in jeopardy.
Larry Elliott was at the event, and reports:
George Soros said:
“The EU is in an existential crisis as a result of migration. The EU is falling apart.”
Backing the idea of a Marshall Plan, Soros said:
“Most people know that something has gone terribly wrong. It has to be put right.”
As we covered in this liveblog this morning, Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has called for billions to be spent helping the troubled countries in the Middle East, to stem the flood of refugees into Europe.
Soros added that the same conditions were in place as caused the crisis in 2008.
“There is a financial crisis and a bear market. The source of the disequilibrium is different. In 2008 it was US sub prime. Today it is China where a hard landing is practically unavoidable.”
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The Greek government says the talks between Lagarde and Tsipras were “sincere”.
Helena Smith has the details:
The Greek government has just issued one of its famous briefing papers calling Tsipras’ talks with IMF chief Christine Lagarde “sincere.”
The Greek PM “underlined that time is a critical parameter for the successful conclusion of the Greek programme and the first evaluation [of the economy’s performance,]” the paper said.
Both agreed that from now on there should be “direct communication” between the Greek government and the IMF “so that each side has a clear view of the positions of the other,” it noted.
After saying it would be preferable if the IMF did not participate in Greece’s latest bailout, Athens reluctantly agreed last week to the Washington-based body remaining amongst the lenders.
IMF: Greece needs significant debt relief and reforms
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, has met with Alexis Tsipras at the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
It was a good meeting, one insider says.
And the IMF has now issued a statement, reiterating that Greece needs significant debt relief, as well as pension reforms which are causing such anger in Athens.
“The managing director reiterated that the IMF stands ready to continue to support Greece in achieving robust economic growth and sustainable public finances through a credible and comprehensive medium-term economic program.
“Such a program would require strong economic policies, not least pension reforms as well as significant debt relief from Greece’s European partners to ensure that debt is on a sustainable downward trajectory.”
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While Tsipras hits Davos, protests hits the streets of Athens
While the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras was addressing delegates in Davos earlier today, opposition against the policies his government is being forced to apply intensified as thousands took to the streets.
Our correspondent, Helena Smith, reports from Athens.
Opposition to the pension and tax measures set as the price of further bailout funds mounted today as thousands of protestors –mostly from the professions – joined farmers and fishermen and public sector unionists in denouncing the policies.
As Tsipras hob-nobbed in Davos, around 10,000 demonstrators took to the streets – following up farmer blockades that also expanded - in further evidence that after months (some might say years) of being relatively inactive, the protest movement is once again gaining steam.
For the most part, lawyers, doctors and engineers, many said they belonged to Greece’s vast sector of self-employed who stood to be hard hit by the reforms. “A lot of us here voted for the left and feel really betrayed,” Baltis Kapopoulos, an Athenian engineer, told me.
“It’s terrible that the left should be tainted by such policies,” he said in front of the Greek parliament, a placard emblazoned with the words ‘You won’t kick us out of the country’ above his head.
At 29, Kapopoulos said he had no desire to leave Greece but like many might be forced to by the measures. “If they go through, pensions will drop, contributions will soar and taxes will double. There’ll be a lot of black market work with no insurance. And it’ll be the end of small firms.”
“I think the reason there has been such a delay in protest is because people have been shocked. We voted ‘no’ in the referendum [last July] and 48 hours later, Tsipras went and accepted everything,” he said of the leftist’s spectacular surrender to creditors’ demands under threat of Greece’s ejection from the euro zone. “Either we react now or we never will. It’s the last chance if we don’t want to be forced to leave our country.”
Felix Salmon, the sharp-as-a-very-sharp-tack financial columnist, has delivered his verdict on this year’s Davos.
And it’s a zinger, surpassing Felix’s earlier criticism of the annual shindig in the mountains.
He argues that the excitement and chatter behind the scenes about Donald Trump (the antithesis of the spirit of Davos), shows that WEF’s vision of an open, inclusive approach to solving the world’s problems is failing.
Especially as we seem to be collecting more problems, not fewer, from stock market turmoil and oil, to the Middle East.
Over to Felix:
This year, then, is proving itself to be the Davos of denial, the year that the disconnect between rhetoric and reality became more obvious than ever. The founder of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab, is on some level a plutocratic power-broker just like many other rich and powerful men, but his dream of bringing the world together in the service of peace and prosperity is, or was, a genuine one.
It has even been bought into by leftist critics who complain that Davos is “increasingly where global decisions are being taken and moreover is becoming the default form of global governance.”
The truth, however, is that with the exception of a few public-health initiatives, the Davos model of “multi-stakeholder initiatives” and “global redesign” has utterly failed in its stated aims. The grandiloquence is as lofty as ever, but the world has not come together; instead, it is fracturing, and the World Economic Forum’s manifold Leaders are reduced to the status of impotent spectators. Some men just want to watch the world burn; Davos Man wants nothing less. But, right now, that’s all he can realistically do.
The failure of Davos, by @felixsalmon https://t.co/obJ9KZ24yC pic.twitter.com/GBaBZet9pR
— Fusion Money (@FusionMoney) January 21, 2016
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European markets bounce back
In the financial markets, ECB president Mario Draghi has provided some respite today with his assurances that the central bank will review policy in March - hinting fresh stimulus could come sooner than many investors had been expecting.
London’s bluechip FTSE 100 index rebounded from a three-year low on Draghi’s remarks, which followed assurances from his Bank of England counterpart Mark Carney this week that UK interest rates would stay at their record low amid turmoil on global markets and signs that the domestic economy had softened.
The FTSE 100 closed up 100 points, or 1.8%, at 5,773.8 but it is still down more than 7% from the start of the year having sold off with other leading bourses around the world on worries over global growth and China’s downturn.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed up 2% and on Wall Street the Dow Jones industrial average was up 1.2% and the S&P 500 was up 0.8% at the time of the London close.
Analysts cautioned that while Draghi’s words had soothed markets for now, they would need to be followed with real action. Many recalled December’s disappointment when ECB action was deemed much less aggressive than Draghi’s prior promises had led investors to believe.
“ECB president Draghi once again saw the equity markets confirm his ‘super’ status as they jumped almost as soon as he started his speech,” said Alastair McCaig, analyst at online trading company IG.
“All in all it was very impressive, especially when you consider he didn’t actually promise anything, but he was convincing enough to get JP Morgan, RBS and Barclays to bring forward their calls for further easing from June to March.”
Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, commented:
“Although equity markets have lapped up the prospect of additional easing like manna from heaven, any euphoria derived from promises of central bank action may prove to be fleeting. Despite Draghi’s assurances, it’s still not clear if the ECB is willing to commit to the sort of massive, unconditional and open-ended QE programmes that we have seen from the Bank of Japan and the Fed.”
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Now here’s a turn-up.
Davos attendees have voted that the answer to inequality lies more in wealth distribution than greater opportunity, we hear.
At the start of the debate, the audience were split 65%-35% in favour of opportunity. But after a spirited debate, the vote was switched, reports Philip Jennings of the UNI Global union.
The pitchforks win after debate audience switches from 65/35 against to 56/44 in favour of redistribution to tackle inequality #WEF16
— Philip Jennings (@PJenningsUNI) January 21, 2016
Osborne: There's good news behind market volatility
George Osborne has denied that the EU renegotiations are hurting the UK economy, and claimed that the recent market volatility is actually a good thing:
Speaking to CNBC here in Davos, he said:
“Internationally we need a big of a sense of perspective which is, underlying all this volatility are some transformations and transitions which are fundamentally good for the world – China becoming a more consumption based economy, energy being cheaper…in the European Union and the euro zone, the European Central Bank ready to…step in and support the euro zone.”
“Because of the very sharp falls in the oil price the markets are unstable…but fundamentally for most western economies…the fall in the price of energy is a good thing.”
Our negotiation with the European Union is not harming the UK economy: UK Chancellor Osborne #TechDavos #WEF16 pic.twitter.com/tXmA6c0WtI
— CNBC International (@CNBCi) January 21, 2016
This rather sums Davos up:
Buzzword bingo, @Davos edition: The good, the bad and the Schatzalp https://t.co/w23f6cSjcQ #WEF16 #WEF #Davos pic.twitter.com/wjum27nfpX
— Lucy P. Marcus (@lucymarcus) January 21, 2016
World at risk of another pandemic
Businesses at Davos are being urged to provide more financial assistance to help the world prepare for the next major pandemic.
Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, has warned that we are simply not ready for another serious outbreak, similar to the Ebola crisis that struck Africa last year.
Speaking at Davos he says:
Pandemics are not that rare, we have had a dozen in the last decade.
He cites Sars, bird flu, Mers, influenza and the Zika virus as examples of diseases which could create a new pandemic. At the moment, vaccines do not exist for any of these viruses.
This leaves the world very vulnerable, and we need to address it at the time between epidemics.
As well as life-saving drugs, Farrar says countries also need to prepare their response plans, so they are not caught out when a pandemic begins.
A new report, from the Commission on Creating a Global Health Risk Framework for the future, estimated that epidemics and pandemics cost the global economy $60 billion annually.
Victor Dzau, who oversaw the commission, says:
“The report calls the attention globally that this isn’t just a health issue, it’s a global security issue”
The report called for the World Health Organisation to be strengthened, and for more money for R&D.
In total, Farrar tells me, just 60 cents or 40p per person would make a dramatic difference in fighting pandemics. That’s $4.5bn, which could come from governments and philanthropic groups as well as business.
As Farrar puts it:
If we did that, we could go a long way to avoiding another Ebola, or worse.
Dr Zia Khan of the Rockefeller Foundation says businesses must do their bit:
“We are looking to the business community, as well as G7 and others, to take up as a call to action. It is directly relevant to them”.
Updated
If you’re just tuning in, please click here to see our earlier summary of the comments made by the French and Dutch PMs today.
Updated
Our politics liveblog had rounded up Cameron’s speech - here.
In brief, they are that:
- Cameron said that he was “not in a hurry” to get an EU deal by February (really, prime minister?)
- Cameron said there would still be many “imperfect” things about the EU even if he got the reform package he wanted.
- He urged business to start campaigning now for Britain to stay in a reformed EU.
- He said Britain could have “the best of both worlds” in a reformed EU.
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Car boss Ghosn: We could cope with Brexit
Lets get back to Davos. And Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Renault-Nissan, just told me that his company will cope fine if Britain chooses to leave the EU.
Asked about the possibility of Brexit, Ghosn said:
I’m not worried. Whatever is the decision of the UK we will adapt to it. We will adapt to it.
If the UK stays, we will continue what we’re doing. If the UK decides to move out, we will adapt to the situation.
I don’t think there is a reason to worry. We knew for many years that this was possible. So we’ll deal with it.
But might you be forced to move jobs out of the UK, if we leave the EU?
Frankly it’s too early to talk about that.
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To sum up, ECB president Mario Draghi said the ECB would review and may reconsider its monetary policy in March, and that interest rates were likely to stay at low levels for some time.
That hint of further stimulus was enough to send the euro lower against the pound and dollar, and give markets a boost. He also dismissed suggestions the ECB’s governing council was split over December’s decision to cut the deposit rate and extend the length of the QE programme.
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Last minutes showed governing council was divided, how confident are you you can get a majority for more easing measures. On the 2% target, ex-chief economist of ECB said target should be in longer term not medium because it harms ECB credibility.
Disagree that minutes show such divisions. Today’s line of communication was unanimous. We have got a majority over last four years, so should have no doubts the council has the willingness and cohesion necessary to take actions needed.
On second point, when people say it should be lower than 2% while others say above, camps are divided. [Economist] confirmed validity of the target. The horizon of reaching this objective is his argument. View of council is we should reject any suggestion we may do less than what’s necessary, in order to achieve target without undue delay.
There are global events which could adversely affect objective, but not reason to give up.
And with that, it’s all over.
Could markets get ahead of themselves as before December meeting?
I abstained from blaming markets as such. Communication is a two way affair, hard to put blame of some disappointment on one side only. The council is open to use all necessary instruments to cope with the situation which is materially different from what it was at the beginning of December.
In October, said you would re-examine in December and there was action. Is there any difference now? How worried are you about recent drop in inflation expectations?
All inflation expectations have declined, and more worryingly, their correlation with inflation has increased. The council has the power, the willingness to act.
What is message for countries like Spain whose disinflation is less effective. Is there a need for fiscal change in eurozone.
Spain has achieved one of most significant progress in reform, country is now on its way to continue recovery and structural reforms. With very low inflation rates, the internal revaluations become more difficult. One of reasons inflation at 2% makes even more sense in a monetary union like ours.
No disagreement on fiscal policy between ECB and EC. We are not the guardians, that is the EC. Fiscal consolidation should be growth friendly based on tax cuts, government spending control and possibly investment.
There has been a wave of stock market selling, especially bank shares and Italian bank shares. You more or less gave a clean bill of health to banks, markets seem to disagree with your assessment. On non performing loans, you have asked for information so what is the purpose of this action?
This allows me to clarify a confused perception.
The NPLs were fully assessed in comprehensive assessment. Nothing new. The provisioning for these was fully determined. So no new unexpected provisioning or requests for more capital will be made by banking supervisor.
On Italy, its banks have a level of provision similar to that prevailing in eurozone area, and a level of collatoral.
European supervisor is aware it takes years to deal with NPLs, cannot be resolved with short period of time.
Good example is Ireland - successful in terms of recovery and they are dealing with NPLs gradually.
The questionaire was sent to several banks, not only Italy. It is an enquiry on how banks are managing NPLs. The purpose is to look at different national practices to get one best practice in time. Not an initiative to get banks to deal with NPLs urgently.
Don’t think markets disagree but there has been confusion. Hope this helps.
Updated
Causes of movements in markets?
Difficult to assess. Whether it will be transient or not, whether market adjust to a different level, better question for market analysts to answer.
Updated
Regarding the fall in the oil price - wouldn’t it be better to ignore effect of that. History suggests they will rise again for sure [and lift inflation], why not wait?
When we have dramatic movement in commodities we look at three factors: persistence of these changes, if it was a short term effect we would look through it but this has not been our experience.
Materiality, the size. Since December oil fell by 40%.
Look at second round effects - low commodity prices do feed into other prices and that could generate what we want to avoid, spiralling down phenomona.
So far don’t have that, but have to be vigilent.
We have to take seriously that low commodity prices for a long period may have second round effects that we want to take action against.
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Comment on China risks. On refugees, chancellor Merkel is taking a big risk and if situation worsens she could leave, was there a discussion on this domestic German crisis.
On China, there have been three main developments - weaker PMI, situation in forex market, situation in stock market.
All this generated sizeable capital outflows. We are monitoring. So far indicators suggest there is a gradual deceleration in line with our expectations. But outlook for eurozone area after these developments has been revised downwards.
There has been a renewed decline in commodity and oil prices since December. On oil, supply and demand factors and what is happening in China is contributing to demand side.
What do we expect? Chinese authorities have reputation for acting responsibly. In last two weeks they have been regaining control of policy.
On refugees, can’t talk about one country. Large change but could become opportunity.
Updated
One of constraints on purchases is political. On financial turmoil have you seen signs of stress among investors, customers.
If there were constraints, we will have technical work so we can use all instruments.
On second point, best answer to recent developments is to make sure banking sector is resilient. Is a factual statement that all the actions taken have produced a much stronger banking sector than it was before the crisis.
But should be cautious about not being too self congratulatory.
The commodity volatility we are seeing would previously have tested banking system, but we have seen, they stand pretty resilient.
Updated
Are you concerned about banking system and financial stability in light of what’s happening in world.
We are constantly monitoring financial sector, banking sector, trying to see whether central banks’ monetary policies could become a source of financial instability. So far we have not seen signs of the potential financial instability of the like we have seen in the pre-crisis times.
Not our mandate to protect banks’ profitability but we are aware of consequences.
Best answer is to ensure economy returns to growth, stable growth. Best answer for banking sector as well.
Updated
You said no limits to what you could do, could you extend purchases to other classes of assets such as equities, lower other rates not just deposit. On refugee issue, are you concerned of effects of border closures on economy?
I can only reiterate there are no limits. If we are to decide about a specific policy we want to be confident there are no technical limits to the size of its deployment.
On refugees, this is an extraordinary development which is and will be changing the face of our society in Europe. It is in our hands, the opportunity, the ability to transform this development into an opportunity for future growth in Europe.
We are not surrendering in front of these global actions.
Our mandate is to reach a level of inflation at if not below 2%, even more determined in face of adverse events.
Last month, you said monetary policy was adequate, now reviewing. Does this harm credibility. Inflation could fall below zero despite everything, do central banks not have as much control.
Monetary policy has been quite effective - improvement in all financial conditions, now translated into real economic improvements.
In December measures we decided were appropriate. But based on prevailing circumstances. We looked at exchange rate, price of oil, growth prospects of emerging markets.
Since then, these circumstances have changed. Oil fallen by 40%, exchange rate fallen, and you can see situation of financial and commodity markets.
Those measures in December were quite significant (NB one criticsim was the measures were watered down)
The credibility of ECB would be harmed if we did not review and reconsider monetary policy stance when we have the full information.
We have the determination to act and there are no limits within our mandate.
The governing council was unanimous on this line of communication. (there was talk of a split)
Now for questions.
You will reconsider monetary policy stance in March, what measures do you have left and what can they do? Could you clarify position on Portugals Novo Banco where ECB not said to be involved in the bail in?
Draghi: On second question, we are not the resolution authority.
On monetary policy: In a speech in New York I said there are no limits to deploying instruments to reach objective of inflation at 2%.
Don’t want to discuss specifics of instruments.
The euro is dropping as Draghi speaks, on the prospect of further action including perhaps further rate cuts:
EUR Intraday: pic.twitter.com/CX6R2fmEzr
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 21, 2016
But European markets seem to like the talk, with Germany’s Dax up 1.2% and France’s Cac climbing 1.3%.
Updated
ECB to reconsider monetary policy stance in March - Draghi
ECB president Mario Draghi said the bank had decided to keep key interest rates unchanged, and it expected them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
He said the asset purchases under the QE programme were proceeding smoothly. He said it was clear that its monetary policies were working. Developments in the real economy, financing conditions have improved, strengthened the eurozone’s resilience recent global market shocks.
Extension of QE until March 2017 was appropriate, there was a significant addition of liquidity to the banking system.
But he added:
“Yet as we start the new year, downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about emerging market prospects, commodity markets, geopolitical risks.
Eurozone inflation dynamics are also weaker than expected in December. It is necessary to review and reconsider our monetary policy stance in early March, when new economic projections become available.”
He said the fall in the oil price should help consumers and businesses, but the risks to eurozone growth remained to the downside.
Inflation expectations will be low in coming months, and pick up only later in 2016.
Updated
Here’s the full text of the European Central Bank rate decision ahead of president Mario Draghi’s press conference:
At today’s meeting the governing council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.30% respectively.
And here’s a comment from David Katimbo-Mugwanya, a fund manager at EdenTree Investment Management:
The ECB will be keen to take stock in the coming weeks, preferring to appraise the effectiveness of its December policy actions rather than easing further in the immediate future. The central bank will have taken note, nevertheless, of persistent disinflationary pressures stemming from oil and commodity price weakness.
Updated
Crowds are gathering in the Congress Hall for David Cameron’s speech on Britain’s Place in the World.
As covered this morning, we expect the PM to call on business leaders to back him over the EU renegotiations.
As it’s a massive UK political story, my colleague Andy Sparrow is going to live blog it himself, here:
You can watch the session live here:
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JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon on Brexit
Just bumped into Jamie Dimon, boss of JP Morgan, whose bank is planning to back the In campaign on the UK EU referendum.
He would not say how much the bank is spending - “We’ve just started doing (it)...Wish we didn’t have to do it at all”.
Q: So will JP Morgan stay if there is a no vote?
That will depend on how Brexit happens, and which operations the bank could and couldn’t keep in Britain, Dimon replies.
He continues:
“Britain’s been a great home for financial companies and it’s benefited London quite a bit.
We’d like to stay there but if we can’t, we can’t. I can’t tell the British people what to do, it’s up to them”
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Summary: Brexit casts cloud over Davos
Time for a quick recap.
Britain’s future in, or out, of Europe has dominated the morning of the second day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
A series of European politicians have urged the UK not to quit the European Union. Dutch PM Mark Rutte said Europe needs Britain’s “outward looking , trade oriented, growth oriented” approach, and urged UK business and community leaders to speak out.
French PM Manuel Valls said Brexit would be a tragedy, while German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble called it a disaster for Britain, and the EU.
Valls also suggested that David Cameron will not succeed in completing his renegotiations next month.
The migration crisis has also loomed large:
Schäuble called for a new Marshall Plan to tackle Europe’s refugee crisis, saying billions must be spent.
Rutte said that the Dublin agreement, under which migrants seek residency in the first EU country they register in, must be reformed. Otherwise the Schengen agreement allowing free movement across most EU countries will collapse.
And Greek PM Alexis Tsipras said the EU needs to do more to help “transit countries” such as Greece and devise a properly thought-out and paid-for relocation and resettlement plan.
Tsipras also clashed with Schäuble over Europe’s approach to growth and austerity. The Greek PM wants more help; Germany’s finance minister wants more competitiveness.
Elsewhere in Davos...
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US Treasury secretary Jack Lew has hinted that markets have over-reacted to the oil price slump and China’s slowdown.
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The chief economist of Brazil’s biggest bank has warned its economic woes could last until 2018
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A top Chinese official has defended Beijing’s handling of the crisis....
- ...after Christine Lagarde said China has a communication problem.
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The boss of HSBC has warned that it is hard to raise money for green energy right now
Updated
ECB leaves rates unchanged
The European Central Bank has kept its interest rates unchanged, as expected.
After December’s cut, it has left the deposit rate at -0.3%. Its benchmark refinancing rate is steady at 0.05%.
The euro has inched up to $1.0915 following the news.
Now for ECB president Mario Draghi’s press conference, due shortly.
#ECB keeps all #interest #rates unchanged. No mention of additional #stimulus measures to be announced at meeting. All eyes now on #Draghi
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) January 21, 2016
Updated
Italy hopes to agree a plan with the EU to help its struggling banks by next week at the latest, Reuters is reporting.
The report says the idea is to set up vehicles to help banks sell bad loans, with a disposal price equivalent to between 20% and 30% of the nominal value of the loan. The latest proposal submitted by Italy is being discussed with a technical meeting due on Friday.
Yesterday, there were reports that some customers were withdrawing savings from Monte Paschi bank, with its chief executive saying said the fall in deposits was “limited” and that the bank could cope with it..
Updated
Jack Lew managed to crack a joke; things can’t be that bad.
Lew says it's easier to be anywhere, now the US has paid its dues to the IMF pic.twitter.com/wGLiIn5xWr
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) January 21, 2016
Treasury secretary Lew: Markets should look at the big picture
The US Treasury secretary, Jack Lew, is discussing the state of the US economy, and the wider globe.
Lew begins by warning that the world economy isn’t strong enough:
I look around the world and there are a lot of headwinds. We’ve seen very slugging growth in demand for some years now, and that’s led to a not-strong-enough global economy.
And now that things are developing in parts of the global economy that are disruptive, people are reacting to it.
And he argues that people are being too negative over recent developments, such as the slump in crude oil.
For anyone consuming oil, lower oil is a tax cut.
And on China, Lew says the situation isn’t dramatically different than last year. They are in a long and difficult transition, from an export-driven economy to a consumer one.
That’s a tough and disruptive process.
The big issue in China is whether it can stick to its own economic reform plan, and deliver the growth that it, and the world economy, needs.
He said it was important to see how China handled its currency - which was deprecated last summer - and called for “an orderly transition” with the exchange rate, and for the Chinese to allow industrial capacity to “right size. “These are big ifs”, Lew said.
And Lew also hints that investors may be getting too jumpy.
I know it’s been bumpy days in the market, but I try to look beyond the hour to hour, day to day, to what the big trends are.
I’m not minimising that it’s been choppy in the markets, but I think you do need to look at some of these underlying trends in a long-term way.
Updated
Ilan Goldfajn, chief economist at Brazil’s biggest bank, Itaú Unibanco, says that his country’s economic malaise is unlikely to be tackled until 2018.
Goldfajn warned that :
“Brazil has a fiscal problem, it has an external problem and it has a political problem.”
The impeachment proceedings against Brazil’s president Dilma Rousseff meant there had “been a lame duck government from day one”.
Congress was blocking any attempts to resolve Brazil’s economic problems, in part caused by the collapse in commodity prices and in part by mismanagement.
Every country in South America had seen its growth rate halved since the end of the commodity super-cycle, Goldfajn said, but Brazil had done much worse than that. It had gone from growth of 4% a year to contraction of 4% a year.
The political impasse would last until the next presidential election in 2018, he fears, saying:
“The most likely scenario is that the economic problems are not going to be resolved until then. The economy will eventually not be in recession but there won’t be a recovery either.”
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, warned Davos that Brexit would be disastrous for all involved:
Brexit would be a disaster for Britain and EU says Germany's Schauble. #Davos2016
— Roland Rudd (@RolandRudd) January 21, 2016
BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley says the current situation in the oil market reminds him of the 1986 crisis, where oversupply led to a collapse in prices, reports Reuters.
Speaking in Davos, Dudley said he expected further pressure on prices this year as Iran ramped up exports:
The first and second quarter will be very difficult....It is a big shock for producing countries. It reminds me of 1986.
Prices will remain low for longer but not forever.
He said markets would begin to rebalance later in 2016 as the glut of oil reduces and investment falls.
Brent crude is currently down 0.4% at $27.76 a barrel.
Manuel Valls has also told reporters here that he doesn’t think David Cameron will agree a renegotiation deal next month:
French PM Valls pours bucketload of Davos snow on hopes of a Brexit deal at February EU summit. From @AFP https://t.co/iZeYEI1K0S
— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) January 21, 2016
French PM: Brexit would be a tragedy
French PM Manual Valls says it would be a “tragedy for Europe” if the UK quit the Union.
He tells Davos that David Cameron is making some good points, and that a more simple and effective Europe would be good for everyone.
We must find a compromise, and everyone must contribute to it.
Our British friends must understand we will move forwards hand in hand, together, Valls continues.
And he warns that the sight of Britain going it alone, at a time when countries need to work more closely to tackle the world’s problems, would be disastrous:
Nothing would be worse than to see a country like UK leave, it would lead to more populism.
Dutch PM: We need UK to stay in the EU
Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte has told Davos that Europe “needs” the United Kingdom to stay within the European Union.
He also called on business and community leaders at Davos to campaign for the In side in the upcoming referendum, echoing David Cameron’s speech this afternoon.
Rutte says:
The UK is outward looking , trade oriented, growth oriented, and we do not have enough of that storyline, that tradition, that culture within the European Union.
The European Union can only survive if it is relevant to its people, and it can only be relevant if it leads to economic growth, more jobs and prosperity.
It is also crucial for the UK to not lose its place in Europe:
I believe the United Kingdom will be worse off outside the EU. It will not have the influence it has in the world today....
Isn’t it strange to even debate a Brexit at a time the world is facing all these huge issues and challenges?
Rutte goes on to call Cameron “influential” and an “excellent prime minister”.
We would all be worse off if he left, so all 28 countries must work together to create an EU that is more competitive, more outwardd-looking, more growth-oriented.
If we could achieve that, the whole episide will have a positive ending
Are you optimistic about the upcoming summit?
Rutte says he is fairly optimistic that leaders could get to an postiive outcome in February, but not certain.
#brexit rutte optimistic on deal but 'not sure we'll get there in february'
— Ian Traynor (@traynorbrussels) January 21, 2016
He’s also fairly optimistic about the referendum, and urges Davos attendees to speak out.
I hope that all of you, business leaders, community leaders, with influence in the United Kingdom will participate.
Don’t leave it all to the politicians. You should not preach, as that will never work, but to explain to the British public why it is important in your view for the UK to be part of the European Union.
Music to David Cameron’s ears, I expect, as he tours Davos today.
Updated
Asked about the IMF’s role in the Greek bailout, Schäuble appears to admit that he was over-ruled by chancellor Merkel:
Schauble confirms he did not want IMF involved in Greece talks but Merkel insisted. 'She was right in the end' he says.
— Philip Aldrick (@PhilAldrick) January 21, 2016
And the German parliament approved the 3rd bailout on those terms:
.Ask German MP's to forget IMF in Greek bailout? "I would be entering roomful of dynamite with a lit candle!" says Schauble #WEF16
— Alex Pigman (@AlexRPigman) January 21, 2016
Updated
Schäuble responds to Tsipras, saying he does agree that Europe should help countries who need it.
But Europe also need to be competitive.
Germany has its own problems, including demographic (its ageing population).
If we want to make Europe stronger, then we should implement what we agreed to implement.
We could just say implementation, stupid.
Updated
Tsipras calls for more European solidarity, and growth.
Back to Alexis Tsipras. He says Greece has made great efforts to reform its economy in recent years, through an unprecedented downturn.
We lost 25% of our GDP, and unemployment skyrocketed, says the Greek PM.
Tsipras then inplicitly criticises Europe’s approach to Greece, saying:
Greece needs considerable structural reforms. We must all understand that next to balanced budget, we also have to have growth.
Greece needs to tackle corruption, boost investment, and help the state to rebuild itself.
And he demands more solidarity, saying:
We need a co-ordinated growth strategy, and Europe must help to diminish the inequalities between North and South.
We need more Europe, and show more solidarity as well.
At @Davos, @atsipras not sounding so Marxist: "When you try to get a biz loan in Greece, it’s 7%; just 1% in north." pic.twitter.com/WbrZYhdTdU
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) January 21, 2016
Updated
Schäuble: Europe must spend billions to tackle refugee crisis
Wolfgang Schäuble refuses to say whether Germany can cope with another million refugees this year.
And he says Europe must spend billions on the areas where refugees are fleeing. He agrees with Alexis Tsipras that Europe cannot become a fortress
Schauble on the refugee crisis: Europe should not become a fortress pic.twitter.com/M4U40gHjuS
— Farah Boucherak (@fboucherak) January 21, 2016
This problem will cost the European public more than expected,
But it cannot be ignored. Schäuble says, if Europe is to guarantee its security.
It is a problem of and for Europe. Everything that goes wrong with these regions won’t end up in Canada, it will end up in Europe.
#WEF2016 German finance minister Schauble says that EU will have to invest billions in affected MENA countries to stem refugee flow.
— Dr John Chipman IISS (@chipmanj) January 21, 2016
Updated
Alexis Tsipras says all European countries must share the burden of the refugee crisis.
Europe must create a two-way system for migration, so people can be returned home.
Tsipras on the #refugees crisis "we have to do something together in Europe, have a legitimate mechanism" #WEF16 #davos @FRANCE24
— Farah Boucherak (@fboucherak) January 21, 2016
He also calls for much more co-operations between countries; Greece simply cannot cope alone.
At @Davos, @atsipras laments #Greece & #Turkey spend on "militaries to check each other" but don't co-op on refugees pic.twitter.com/SlWkLkk0dO
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) January 21, 2016
Updated
Next question, on migration, goes to Dutch PM Mark Rutte.
Can the Schengen Agreement survive the refugee crisis?
Rutte says that 35,000 people have already arrived on the shores of Europe this year.
When spring comes, and the numbers quadruple, we cannot as a European Union cannot cope with the numbers any longer.
#migration rutte says 35,000 crossed turkey to greece in 1st 3 weeks january. 'we can't cope'
— Ian Traynor (@traynorbrussels) January 21, 2016
This is the immediate agenda for the next few months. And the priorities include:
- Success of EU-Turkish union
- Successful hotspots in Greece and Turkey and Italy
Schengen is crucial, Rutte continues. But we also have the Dublin agreement, and it isn’t working.
Before we kill Schengen, we have to make Dublin work.... No-one wants to kill Schengen, but if it is only a fair-weather system then it cannot survive.
Updated
Valls: Europe is in a war against terrorism
Manuel Valls, France’s prime minister, kicks off the European session by saying security and terrorism are one of the biggest challenges faced by the continent.
We are at war against terrorism. A world war. And we as Europeans need to face up to this.
French PM Valls: We are in global war against terrorism. EU project can die if we don't cooperate on defense. #WEF16
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) January 21, 2016
And European must work together to fight it, pooling resources, and also sharing more information - including a common programme of oversight of flights and airports.
So could EU forces be deployed to hot spots in the Middle East?
We need more Europe, not less, says Valls, as he thanks everyone who offered help and support to France after the Paris terror attacks.
The Middle East is just two hours from Europe - we cannot ignore what is going on there.
We must move away from this selfishness, and find the means to deal with this historic challenge.
France' PM Valls calls for more Europe to deal with failed states exporting terrorism #Davos2016
— Roland Rudd (@RolandRudd) January 21, 2016
Updated
Future of Europe session underway
Hundreds of people are pouring into the Davos Congress Hall for the main set-piece event of the morning - the Future of Europe session.
It will pit Greece’s Alexis Tsipras against Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble, with France’s Manual Valls, the Netherland’s Mark Rutte, and Eni chairman Emma Marcegaglia.
Highlight of the day: #Tsipras, #Schaeuble to lock horns on 'The future of Europe' at 11.15 in #Davos2016. That should be interesting
— Daphne Papadopoulou (@daphnenews) January 21, 2016
You can watch it live, here:
Perhaps we spoke too soon.
The attempted rally in Europe seems to be petering out, with the FTSE down around 8 points and Germany’s Dax off 24 points.
Dow futures are also falling, now indicating a 130 point decline at the opening bell. David Morrison at Spread Co said:
Equities are on the slide again as crude oil continues its relentless decline. Both WTI and Brent are trading below $28 for the usual supply/demand reasons. However, there are also concerns as speculation mounts over the possibility that Saudi Arabia may unpeg the riyal from the US dollar. The strength of the greenback combined with the low oil price is a serious drain on the Kingdom’s reserves and breaking the peg would be one way of easing the pain.
Looks like another topsy-turvey day.
Updated
Here’s our report on today’s session on the Chinese economy:
A senior Chinese official has defended the country’s economic policies and urged investors to stop fixation on fluctuations in its stock market.
Fang Xinghai, Office of the central leading group for financial and economic affairs, told the World Economic Forum that while the stock market was down 40% from its peak it was up 30% over 18 months, He also insisted that there was no basis on which to devalue the currency and said the country was commitment to moving to shadowing a basket of currencies.
He declared:
“China’s record of honouring itss commitment is superb”.
He is speaking against a backdrop of countries concerned about the Chinese economy, its currency - which was devalued during the summer - and the volatility in its stock market.
Gary Cohn, chief operating officer of Goldman, said most market participants believed China would devalue its currency this year.
He joined Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, in calling for better communication over its polices.
Lagarde said:
Given the massive transitions in China, there is a communication issue - this is something that markets do not like.
Uncertainty, not knowing exactly what the policy is. Not knowing exactly what the renmimni is valued against - the dollar, or a basket of currencies.
Better and more communication” would serve the country better, she said.
Gary Cohn, chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs, agreed with Lagarde and urged the Chinese to stick its polices once they have been communicated.
Fang Xinghai has also told Davos that there is need for more co-operation with global policymakers around the world,”We have to cooperate more closely to overcome this soft patch,” Fang said.
Taken to task by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associations about what this co-operation meant, Fang said it meant in all areas.
We have to cooperate more closely to overcome this soft patch Fang tells #davos
— Jill Treanor (@jilltreanor) January 21, 2016
More on the ECB ahead of today’s meeting:
Ahead of today's #ECB meeting, markets are pricing in another 10bp cut in interest rates. But not for 3 to 6 months. pic.twitter.com/kcetmsYlZ7
— Capital Economics (@CapEconEurope) January 21, 2016
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, has weighed in on the Brexit question, arguing Britain should stay in Europe:
Schauble tells BBC the UK "wouldn't look strong" if it wasnt in the EU. #Davos2016
— Joe Miller (@JoeMillerJr) January 21, 2016
Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, is reported to have pulled out of Davos to deal with the problems in the Italian banking sector:
Italy's PM Renzi said to have cancelled Davos #WEF16 visit on back of bank trouble back home.
— Alex Pigman (@AlexRPigman) January 21, 2016
Yesterday, there were reports that customers were pulling funds out of the Monti Paschi bank, on concerns over its bad debts.
European markets are holding onto their early gains, while US futures are suggesting a dip of around 45 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average when Wall Street opens.
David Morrison at trading company Spread Co said:
The reaction to the overnight Asian Pacific slump from European equities and US stock index futures has been surprisingly muted. At the time of writing, all the major indices are in positive territory. On the face of it this is quite encouraging, particularly as crude is still trading near its 2003 lows. But once again, what looks like the beginning of a recovery in equities could easily turn out to be nothing more than a “dead-cat bounce.”
There’s no doubt there have been signs of stress in global equities for a while now. As far as the US is concerned, in the latter half of 2015 the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet)) were responsible for holding up the major indices as the broader market declined. Technically, the major indices formed a topping pattern as they failed to make fresh highs after the China-inspired summer sell-off. Stress in the high yield bond market was becoming apparent even before the Fed hiked rates. That hike now looks as if it will go down as one of the worst-timed rate rises in history, even crowning the ECB’s classic efforts in 2011. To top it all, China suffered a second melt-down just as we began the New Year.
The Dutch finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, has admitted that Europe blundered by not dealing with its banks faster.
@Davos Dijsselbloem says Europe was "foolish" to leave it so late to deal with its banks #WEF16
— Carmel Crimmins (@carmelcrimmins) January 21, 2016
#Davos2016 @wef "Future-proofing finance" Dijsselbloem, "we need a capital market where risks are well priced". Speculation does not agree!
— Giovanni Bossi (@GiovanniBossi) January 21, 2016
A group of demonstrators have been spotted in Davos.
They’re protesting against China’s activities in the Pakistani territory of Balochistan, where Beijing is developing a large new economic zone.
Protest fällt in Davos jetzt eher nicht so groß aus... pic.twitter.com/u3gc3bFatR
— Stefan Leifert (@StefanLeifert) January 21, 2016
Rough translation: Protests in Davos are not so large now.
And that’s because of the huge security presence in this ski resort, which clamps down on any signs of dissent.
Fang tells #davos to stop worrying chinese stock market might be down 40% but up 30% over 18 months
— Jill Treanor (@jilltreanor) January 21, 2016
Top Chinese official Fang Xinghai has hit back at Christine Lagarde’s complaint about communications failings (see earlier post)
"I am here to communicate" Fang tells #davos in response to Lagarde
— Jill Treanor (@jilltreanor) January 21, 2016
Fang is the vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and a senio advisor to the premier Li Keqiang.
Draghi to set out ECB policy
With markets in turmoil, oil sliding to new lows, concerns about Chinese growth and worries about whether central bankers have run out of ammunition to support the global economy, the president of the European Central Bank will be on the spot later to spell out where he thinks we go from here.
Mario Draghi will unveil the ECB’s latest measures - more QE? Perhaps not yet - in a statement and press conference in Frankfurt. After last month, when the measures announced proved a disappointment, and the more hawkish elements on the ECB clearly prevented the bank from doing more, Draghi’s comments will be widely watched. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:
Today’s focus is likely to shine on the first ECB rate meeting of 2016, against a continuing backdrop of weak inflation in the euro area.
With last month’s December disappointment still fresh in the memory ECB President Mario Draghi will have to convince the markets that the ECB has a plan, and the ammunition to cope with the further slide in inflationary pressures that are likely to ripple across Europe in the coming weeks.
It is clear that the hawks won out last month preventing the ECB from acting in a much stronger fashion, and in the process giving the ECB President a bloody nose, after he had indicated the prospect of much stronger action. How Mr Draghi navigates these divisions will be particularly pertinent given how they were revealed in the most recent minutes, especially given that the next projections in March are likely to see inflation expectations guided lower.
This is because since last month’s December meeting oil prices have slid another 35%, which means that while the ECB President might come across as dovish later today, after last month’s disappointment markets may not necessarily take him at his word.
Economists at Unicredit said:
ECB president Mario Draghi will likely sound dovish today, but we expect him to strike a reasonable balance. Mr. Draghi will be careful to avoid fuelling too much speculation about further action to avoid a repetition of the December experience, when the announcement of QE2 fell short of high expectations.
At the time, the market’s disappointed reaction resulted in a 3% rally in euro-dollar exchange rate. Today, we do not expect the meeting to cause any major move in exchange rates, as the market seems prepared for a relatively balanced debate. The euro has held up well since the 3 December meeting, and it would take a strong (unexpected) dovish signal of imminent action to change this pattern.
Mic Mills at Capital Index said:
All eyes today will be on the ECB with the interest rate decision at 12:45 [GMT] followed by Draghi giving the post meeting press conference at 13:30, which after last month will need to persuade the markets that there is more in the cupboard, as there seems to be no respite in sight when it comes to deflationary pressure.
FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga said:
For an extended period falling commodity prices have left the Eurozone engaged in an ongoing one-sided battle against stubbornly low inflation levels, while stalling domestic economic growth continues to test the European Central Bank’s credibility. It is widely expected that the ECB will remain on standby today and keep rates unchanged, but Mario Draghi may reiterate his dovish mantra and threaten further QE in an attempt to talk down the value of the Euro.
Updated
HSBC boss warns over green financing
At an HSBC breakfast on climate change, the bank’s chief executive Stuart Gulliver has said the current state of the financial markets is not exactly conducive to raising private funds to tackle global warming.
“The markets are showing signs of quite significant distress and it is not a high priority for fund managers to set up a green fund”, Gulliver says.
He also says that the crash in oil prices may have the “unintended consequence” of deterring investment in alternative energy sources because the R&D costs will be considered too high.
Gulliver says that following the Paris climate change conference governments and the private sector had to raise $5tn a year over the next two decades. “It is a vast financing challenge”, he says.
Updated
European markets edge higher
Despite the falls in Asia, European markets have made a positive start, if not a totally convincing one.
The FTSE 100 is up 31 points or 0.5%, while France’s Cac has climbed 0.1%, Italy’s FTSE MIB is 0.5% better and Spain’s Ibex has added 0.5%.
Germany’s Dax, despite Deutsche Bank saying it expected to report a record loss of €6.7bn for 2015, is ahead by 0.2%.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde has warned that Beijing needs to improve the way it communicates with the markets.
Currently, investors are being spooked as they watch China embark on a huge economic rebalancing.
She tells today’s discussion on China that:
Given the massive transitions in China, there is a communication issue - this is something that markets do not like.
Uncertainty, not knowing exactly what the policy is. Not knowing exactly what the renmimni is valued against - the dollar, or a basket of currencies.
China’s rebalancing is “perfectly manageable” if the right policies are taken, she adds.
IMF's Christine Lagarde tells #davos there a "communication issue" with Chinese policies
— Jill Treanor (@jilltreanor) January 21, 2016
China has four challenges: debt and #economic restructuring, and #capital markets & balance of payments reform: Ray Dalio #wef #globaltrade
— World Economic Forum (@Davos) January 21, 2016
Chinese bank chief: Some panic in the markets
Jiāng Jiànqīng, the Chairman of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, has argued that China can’t be blamed for the stock market turmoil.
Speaking on a panel in China’s economy, Jiànqīng said a range of factors are being it.
He cites the slow pace of recovery in the world economy, meaning growth is flat. The US interest rate hike, and economic policies in the EU have also created volatility. And commodity prices are under pressure.
So the world all over is facing volatility. Some reasons are normal, some are abnormal.
There is a certain degree of panic in the market.
Policymakers must implement structural reforms to lead the world economy out of this period of low growth, and regulators should work together to reduce volatility.
European markets set for mixed start
European markets are expected to make an uncertain start after Wednesday’s rout, which saw the FTSE 100 head into bear market territory.
A recovery on the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its worst levels – albeit still showing a 249 point fall – may give some support, although Asian markets lost their early gains to head into the red again.
Here are the opening calls in Europe:
Our European opening calls: $FTSE 5683 up 10 $DAX 9379 down 13 $CAC 4122 down 3 $IBEX 8290 up 9 $MIB 17987 up 19
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) January 21, 2016
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:
Now that equity markets, both here in Europe and in the US have slipped into bear market territory the big question now is where do we go to next. That looks highly likely to depend on oil prices and a late rebound off the lows yesterday did see US markets recoup a large portion of their losses, the Dow was 566 points down at one stage, but they still finished the day below their previous lows in August.
This late rebound should be enough to see European markets open higher this morning, a welcome respite after yesterday’s sell-off, but it is going to need a significant turnaround in sentiment to recoup the losses seen so far this week, and prevent markets from posting their third successive weekly decline.
Oil in fact is slipping back again, with Brent crude down 1% at $27.58 a barrel.
Updated
David Cameron to urge business leaders to back EU In campaign
David Cameron is to call on the UK’s business chiefs to support him in the upcoming EU referendum to secure Britain’s place in a reformed EU.
The prime minister is using his trip to Davos to drum up support, ahead of a potentially decisive EU summit in February where he could secure concessions from fellow European leaders.
The PM is expected to say that:
“This is a once-in-a-generation moment and the stakes are high.”
Cameron’s message to business chiefs is that if they want Britain to remain in the EU with less red tape and a more complete single market, they need to come out and back the In Campaign.
He’ll say:
If you want a more competitive Europe, where the single market is completed, where there are more trade deals and fewer regulations: join me in making that case.
“If you believe, like I do, that Britain is better off in a reformed European Union, then, when the time comes, help me make that case for Britain to stay.”
Business leaders in Davos have been very unwilling to talk on the record about the Brexit issue, while many international delegates have sounded more worried about the prospect of Britain leaving the EU.
So Cameron will certainly be in demand today, as he holds a series of ‘bilateral’ meetings.
Updated
Introduction:
Good morning from Davos, where the second day of the World Economic Forum is getting underway.
Yesterday’s stock market plunges have sent a shiver through this little ski resort, as the “global elite” gather to debate the major issues of the moment.
And world leaders and business chiefs will be monitoring events in the markets closely again, following a wild day’s trading in Asia overnight.
Today’s session will be dominated by Europe, with prime minister David Cameron giving a big set-piece speech in the afternoon.
Cameron is also due to meet with Argentina’s new president, Mauricio Macri, in what could be a thawing of relations between the two countries.
Greece is also in focus today, as prime minister Alexis Tsipras tries to lobby creditor nations to cut Athens some slack on austerity and debt relief. He’s expected to meet with Christine Lagarde during the day.
And there’s also a big focus on geopolitics, with the migration crisis and the turmoil in the Middle East.
Some sessions which we’ll try to cover include:
- 8.45am CET (7.45am GMT): Where is the Chinese economy headed? Including IMF chief Christine Lagarde
- 10.15am CET A debate on the future of Europe, including French PM Manuel Valls, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras, Dutch PM Mark Rutte and German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble
- 12.30pm CET: Treasury secretary Jack Lew discusses “global financial priorities in 2016.”
- 2pm CET: David Cameron on Britain’s place in the world
- 3pm: How to educate Syria’s displaced children
Updated
