England will reveal their final World Cup squad at Lord’s on Tuesday morning and for one of the 16 players deployed so far against Pakistan – a series they lead 3-0 going into Sunday’s fifth instalment at Headingley – a huge disappointment awaits.
Ed Smith, the national selector who was on site for the tense three-wicket victory at Trent Bridge on Friday, will need to be spot on when delivering the bad news. In all likelihood it will be one of the bowlers who is on the other end of the line for the dreaded phone call, unless Smith cuts loose his pet project, Joe Denly, and opts for one batsman and four seamers in reserve. The question now, albeit with one final audition still to come in Leeds, is who?
It is hardly revelatory to state that England’s attack is less feared than the batting and it is true that this year they have shipped 6.58 runs per over in the field, more than any of the nine other World Cup teams.
But it is also worth remembering that, bar matches in St Lucia and Malahide, they have played their cricket on some of the flattest surfaces. Take their most recent outings. On the face of it, shipping scores of 361 for seven, 358 for nine and 340 for seven would be cause for concern. Yet victories in all three – while owing much to the heroics of their much-vaunted batting line-up – serve as a reminder that perceptions of par scores need recalibrating in this era and wicket-taking is key.
The bankers first. Spinners Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid are barely worth dwelling on, given their centrality to England’s tactics. Chris Woakes, cited by the captain, Eoin Morgan, as one of the senior players consulted for the Alex Hales decision, is managing a knee issue but as their leading new ball bowler in the past four years, he too makes the cut.
It is also hard to see Morgan doing without Liam Plunkett, given he is a reliable source of breakthroughs in the middle overs.
So unless Denly – something of a curio in the preliminary 15 named last month given, at that point, it was 10 years since his last 50-over cap – loses his squad utility role, it will come down to three from Jofra Archer, Mark Wood, David Willey and Tom Curran, bowlers who can all be said to have staked a claimed in recent weeks.
Archer’s back catalogue is clearly the lightest of the four but so enamoured are England by the bowler’s effortless pace and dreamy wrist position that he appears well set to usurp one of the original 15. Wood also ticked a considerable box on Friday when, on his competitive return after two months out, he claimed two wickets but crucially bowled at the same speeds witnessed during his breakout tour of the Caribbean.
Just ask Imam-ul-Haq, who was cleared of a broken elbow after being retired hurt by a vicious lifter but was still sporting an ice-pack on the joint the following morning. Morgan must surely fancy having two 90mph-plus bowlers at his disposal. What captain wouldn’t?
All of which brings us to Willey and Curran, between whom the final decision may well rest. The former is arguably the least adaptable among the squad given his need to take the new ball for maximum swing. But then he also provides the left-arm angle England set out to find after their doomed World Cup four years ago, and in Southampton recently his late display of wide-yorker bowling helped secure the tight 12-run victory.
Curran, meanwhile, is a hugely spirited and skilful bowler who, in this era of monstrous totals, remains like an eager hound, so desperate is he to be thrown the ball. His 10 overs in Nottingham may have cost 75 in the runs column but with four wickets spread across three of his four spells, the remarkably achievable target owed much to his surgical incisions.
Curran’s batting is not to be underestimated either. While Willey has never quite been able to transfer his top-order pinch-hitting runs at county level to the England lower order, the Surrey man has shown considerable composure here of late. He helped England to their targets in tense run-chases in Ireland and on Friday – innings of 47 not out and 31 that will come as no surprise to those who watched him during Australia’s Big Bash League.
As Ben Stokes noted after finishing off the job at Trent Bridge following a crucial 61-run stand with Curran: “Tom is one of the guys who, when he walks out on to the field, is desperate to perform. He wants to be involved in everything. He was biting the bullet when he was out there batting. He wants to win games and I think he’s performed very, very well and put an extra scratch on Ed Smith’s head with selection around the corner.”
Stokes was a source of encouragement for England, with his unbeaten 71 from 64 balls a promising return to form after finding life tough in the middle during the IPL. He is still searching for rhythm with the ball, and nursing an elbow niggle that is hampering his throwing from the deep, but to see the all-rounder marshal a chase so wisely is a boon.
It may well earn him a breather for Sunday’s fifth ODI in Leeds too. Morgan is due to return from his over-rate ban, while Jonny Bairstow could well come in for Jason Roy, whose incendiary 114 followed a sleepless night as his new-born daughter, Everly, went back into hospital but, thankfully, is reported to be doing fine.
Bowling-wise, Archer and Wood are expected to be rested again – a fairly conclusive sign their World Cup berths are booked – as Woakes and Willey return, the latter set for what could be viewed as a bowl-off against Curran before they sit by their phones on Monday waiting for Smith’s call.
