With Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza scheduled for baseball immortality Sunday in Cooperstown, the debate over their Hall of Fame credentials has long since ended. Griffey, though not a unanimous selection, commanded a 99.3 percent share of the BBWAA's ballots, easily cruising past the 75 percent threshold the first year he became eligible. For Piazza, however, it took four attempts to finally become plaque-worthy and he pushed through with 83.0 percent this time.
While baseball is a numbers game, the Hall of Fame process certainly has its gray areas, from the stain _ real or perceived _ of performance-enhancing drugs to the historical weight of the statistics themselves. On top of that, Cooperstown is meant to be a very exclusive club.
According to baseball-reference.com, 18,487 players have participated in Major League Baseball since 1876, and with 246 now in the Hall, that means only 1.33 percent have been awarded the honor. Applying that same measure to the current MLB population, of the roughly 650-plus players spending time on a roster this year, almost 10 of those will someday end up in Cooperstown.
That's a generational cross-section, of course, with players varying in age from their 20s to 40s. And in trying to forecast the future crop of Hall of Famers, it's best to remember that being consistently great _ for a decade or more _ is a critical part of the Cooperstown equation.
Think of David Wright, for example. At age 25, after four-plus seasons, Wright seemed to be on the Hall of Fame track, averaging 26 homers with 98 RBIs while hitting .309 _ and only getting better. But injuries, paired with the Mets' decline, conspired to knock him off course.
So as a 12-year voter myself, I thought I'd try to handicap the Hall of Fame chances of these active players, keeping Wright's cautionary tale in mind. And we've also added different categories to reflect the factors at play in each case.
