Trying to calculate the odds of Robinson Cano landing in New York? Look no further than the shot-callers positioned on opposite coasts.
Way out there in the Pacific Northwest is Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners' GM who averages roughly 20 trades per year and already has publicly stated his desire for a "re-imagining" of the Seattle roster.
Back here in New York, we have Brodie Van Wagenen, the agent-turned-GM whose Type A personality has him eager to prove that his "win-now" mantra isn't just more Mets' smoke-blowing to sell tickets over the holidays.
These two make for a very combustible duo, and since they're still talking parameters for a multi-player deal centered around Cano's bloated contract, the guess here is that the former Yankee winds up in Queens before too long _ with All-Star closer Edwin Diaz attached.
As of late Thursday, a Cano swap didn't appear imminent, with one source describing the ongoing situation as "good dialogue," but a discussion that hadn't nailed down any concrete names yet. Because Cano is owed another $120 million through 2023, the assumption has been that the Mets would have to stick the Mariners with Jay Bruce's remaining $29 million over the next two years, but a person familiar with the talks didn't characterize that as a deal-breaker.
If that's the case, then it's going to require some serious creativity on both sides, because the Mets need Cano's money chopped down to more digestible pieces. And for the Mariners to assume a big part of that cost, the Flushing toll would have to be paid in one or more prospects, especially with the inclusion of the 24-year-old Diaz, who doesn't hit free agency until 2023.
What's that worth to the Mariners? First-rounders like Jarred Kelenic or David Peterson? Last year's second-half star Jeff McNeil? Up-and-comers Justin Dunn and Andres Gimenez?
Obviously, Diaz is the real prize here, and the Mariners' chances of unloading Cano _ to any team _ without him plunge considerably. That's why Van Wagenen's aggressive approach should give him an edge, as long as the Wilpons are able to back up his words by agreeing to take on the cash and a slice of the team's longer-term future.
We'll admit that getting Cano from age 36 through 41 is a risky proposition. His 80-game suspension for violating the PED policy was just last season, and these days, coincidentally, players in their late 30s typically don't produce the eye-popping numbers they did a decade or two ago.
But packaging Cano with Diaz, and maybe even a third Mariner, such as Mallex Smith, makes this particular dice roll more appealing _ especially if they get to dump Bruce, who already is obsolete a year into what was thought to be a very team-friendly deal last winter. It's an opportunity for Van Wagenen to check some significant boxes.
Cano should be able to provide some pop from the middle of the order, at least for the next two years, as a major offensive upgrade from Bruce. And at a position, second base, where they could use a veteran to be paired with the still-developing Amed Rosario. The Mets also are desperate for relief help, and Diaz (1.96 ERA, 15.2 K/9) immediately would give them one of the game's best closers, without engaging in a bidding war at the top of the market for this winter's free-agent crop. If the Mets truly are all in for 2019, they should spring for an additional reliever as well, but the Wilpons haven't given any indication as to what they have in mind for next year's payroll.
Another benefit to this swap? In our view anyway, trading for Cano and Diaz should take Noah Syndergaard off the table, although the Mets haven't suggested that one may be affected by the other. Before these Cano talks surfaced, Syndergaard looked like a potential high-return shortcut to improve the Mets at a few positions, provided that Van Wagenen had the financial flexibility to sign a free-agent starter to replace him.
But if the Mets already will be on the hook for, let's say $15 million or so annually on Cano, and have a closer in place, we don't see the same urgency to sell off Syndergaard, who is under team control for another three seasons. And if they did move Noah afterward, would there be money left to spend on another front-line starter like a J.A. Happ? History suggests otherwise.
Van Wagenen, as a former agent, is a deal-maker. Time to get this one done.
