July 26, 2020. Cooperstown. Derek Jeter, the first-ballot Hall of Famer everyone knew he would be, is waiting his turn at the podium before a crowd packed so tightly barely a blade of grass can be seen in the surrounding lawn.
First up, however, is Barry Bonds.
Then Roger Clemens.
A nightmare scenario to some, it's no longer far-fetched to think that Bonds and Clemens, after more than a decade living in the shadow of steroid-tainted careers, will indeed get their day in the sun _ and immortality with a plaque in Cooperstown.
In fact, it's now looking more probable than not. And that awkward induction ceremony is creeping closer to becoming a reality after this year's Hall of Fame voting results were revealed Wednesday night.
Dismissed as hopeless back in 2013 _ and many insisted rightfully so _ on their first year on the ballot, Clemens and Bonds have climbed steadily since, because of a number of factors. And if history is any indication, they both are likely to end up in Cooperstown.
Wednesday's tabulation put Clemens at 54.1 percent, up from 45.2 a year ago, with a gain of 40 votes. Bonds jumped to 53.8 percent, an increase from 44.3, as he picked up 43 votes in the process. A candidate needs to appear on 75 percent of the ballots cast by the Baseball Writers Association of America for induction, so both have some ground to make up.
But after five years on the ballot, Clemens and Bonds are only at the halfway point of their eligibility, giving them plenty of time. And look where they started from. In 2013, Clemens earned 37.6 percent, Bonds 36.2. Here's something else in their favor. Over the past 25 years, only two candidates have surpassed 50 percent of the vote and failed to reach Cooperstown: Jack Morris and Lee Smith.
Morris made it as high as 67.7 percent in 2013 before falling off the ballot the following year. Smith got to 50.6 percent in 2012, then gradually slid to 34.2 percent this year, his final chance. Obviously, they had neither the resumes nor the PED stigmas attached to Clemens and Bonds, and these days, the latter seems easier to overcome among the shifting BBWAA voter bloc. While nothing has changed regarding the records of either player _ and no more incriminating evidence as surfaced off the field _ there is a growing sentiment that Clemens and Bonds should be in Cooperstown.
"I think they both deserve it," the newly-inducted Tim Raines told MLB Network Thursday. "They proved in their careers they're Hall of Fame players."
That sentiment was unanimous among Raines' two other '17 classmates, Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriguez. Unlike Raines, however, both Bagwell and Rodriguez have endured their own PED accusations _ similar to '16 inductee Mike Piazza _ and yet still made it through the Hall's exclusive gates. Perhaps even more remarkable, Rodriguez did it on the very first try. For Bagwell, it took seven years. Piazza, four.
So what is causing these changing trends? Here'a a few reasons why.
