David Davis has for months been sidelined during Brexit talks in Brussels: the outgoing Brexit secretary had only visited the European Union’s defacto capital twice this year, as well as meeting Commission chief negotiator Michel Barnier once in London.
With day-to-day talks done by officials and led by Downing Street since December last year, meetings between the “principals” – Mr Barnier and Mr Davis – were noticeably absent from most negotiating schedules published all through 2018.
While Mr Davis’s departure is likely to have huge ramifications in Westminster and the Conservative Party, as effectively chief-negotiator-in-name-only it is unlikely to be felt strongly in the EU capital in a direct way, or to affect day-to-day negotiations.
As the news reaches Brussels in the early hours of Monday morning, the main question EU officials are asking is whether Theresa May can survive – and whether other ministers will follow Mr Davis out of the door. As that question was asked, another Brexit minister, Steve Baker, departed.
The main factor constraining progress in Brexit talks in Brussels has long been the politics in Westminster – both inside and outside the PM’s cabinet. The Commission and EU member states are not naive, and do follow events in SW1 quite closely, with an eye on the stability of the government.
Mr Barnier has always publicly voiced his respect for Mr Davis – and the pair enjoyed a cordial relationship, swapping hiking-themed gifts last June as a wry reference to the “steep and rocky path” of Brexit talks.
The fact that Mr Davis was previously a Europe minister was respected. Although his suggestion, ahead of the referendum, about bilateral deals with member states for market access did not go unnoticed and raised some eyebrows, as they are simply not allowed in the EU customs union.
He was also liked by many UK officials in Brussels, even if they did not see much of him in recent months.
