The polls have turned against him. The voters seem to have decided they rather like Gordon Brown after all, especially now that he has reinvented himself as the "father of the nation". If Mr Brown is to call an election next week, today's speech could be David Cameron's big chance to turn things around.
1.55pm
And the big news is that David Cameron will not be reading from a pre-written speech, apparently. That's confidence for you.
2pm
The second piece of big news is that Mr Cameron is not going to be on stage for about 10 minutes. Sorry.
2.05pm
Senior Tories, including members of the shadow cabinet, have just made their way to the stage, to applause.
2.15pm
Here he comes. Apparently he's wearing his lucky green tie. He wore it when he made the speech which helped him secure the Tory leadership.
Mr Cameron is getting a standing ovation.
He refers to the speech he made two years ago to win the Tory leadership - when he previously wore the lucky green tie.
"Two years ago I stood on this stage and I gave a speech, a short speech, about why I wanted to lead our party.
"Today I want to make a speech about why I want to lead my country."
He says he hasn't got an autocue or script so it could be "a bit messy".
Mr Cameron says his favourite speech was in Bournemouth 20 years ago after the Berlin Wall had fallen.
He talks about the greyness of communism and about how people who campaigned against communism paid tribute to Lady Thatcher at that Tory conference.
"I felt proud that day: proud of our values, proud of our party, proud of the part we played in helping them forge the movement that brought freedom across our continent.
"But the triumphs of the past aren't enough. Every generation of Conservatives has to make the argument all over again for free enterprise, freedom, responsibility and limited government."
He makes his first reference to making changes and insists the party has made changes that were necessary.
Mr Cameron moves on to the environment, he says it is the party that has made changes, not him, and it should be proud of those changes.
This is becoming a theme: he says the party changed its attitude towards the NHS, not him. "I didn't do that, you did that."
2.20pm
Mr Cameron says he is proud to have the first Muslim women in a cabinet or shadow cabinet, Lady Warsi.
"If we are really the one-nation party, the party of opportunity for everybody, it's not enough just to open the door and say, 'Come in,' we have to get out in Britain's ethnic minority communities and get the brightest and get them in."
The Tory leader moves on to praise William Hague, saying there is no better friend to the Conservative party.
He's on to change again, and how real change is about getting ready to govern.
He says they are meeting the challenges of the modern world. He says the old politics is failing. "Change is required," Mr Cameron says.
Mr Cameron says he will not be lurching to the left or right. He may not be reading from a speech but some of these comments were printed in the press earlier today.
"There's been quite a lot of talk of lurching and I can tell you we are not going to be lurching to the left, we are not going to be lurching to the right, we are just going to provide the good solid leadership that this country needs."
He jokes about Mr Brown's speech, mocking the way the prime minister pronounced "Bournemouth", and refers to the accusations that Mr Brown's speech ripped off some of Bill Clinton and Al Gore's speeches.
"It was not just that we have heard it all before - literally heard it all before - I think actually quite a lot of people in America had heard it all before as well."
He attacks the PM's cynicism, saying he can't deliver on some of the promises made, and some of which had already been pledged - a number of times, he claims.
Mr Cameron says he wants to aim at the 40% of the population who do not vote - again this was reported earlier.
"What about the 40% of our fellow citizens who have just given up on politics? We have got to inspire them. People want the politics of belief and that means politics they can really believe in."
He says people need to be inspired to get involved in politics "they can really believe in" again.
The Tory leader is "an optimist" and believes society will grow stronger if you give people control over their lives. He doesn't believe in an ever-bigger state.
2.25pm
He wants to see families made stronger and people given responsibility.
He criticises the police community support officers who allegedly stood by while a young boy drowned recently as an example of people not taking responsibility.
Mr Cameron refers to the internet transforming people's lives (you wouldn't be reading this without it).
He's on to Facebook now and says that there is a group called "David Cameron is a hottie". When the laughter dies down, he delivers the punchline: it only has 74 members apparently.
Another group called "Am I the only person who doesn't like David Cameron?" has over 300 members, he says.
He moves on to the EU and his insistence that there must be a referendum, calling it one of the most blatant abuses of trust.
He says the Tories will continue to push for a referendum on the EU reform treaty.
"Are we really saying to people, when it comes to how your country is governed, you can't have a say? That is wrong."
Mr Cameron dismisses the PM's policy of citizen's juries, which he says are ignored when it comes to policy making.
Citing a government scheme asking voters to sum up Britishness in six words, he says he has six words for Mr Brown: "Stop wasting money on pointless gimmicks."
2.30pm
Mr Cameron says there should be elected mayors in big cities. Where is he going to find more of the ilk of Boris Johnson?
He would scrap the policy of regional assemblies.
The Tory leader refers to a "new world of freedom". He's on to changes once more and how European countries are cutting corporation and income tax... Is there an announcement in the offing?
Mr Cameron says that business wants to hear about how the Tories will reduce regulation and taxation.
He says a Tory government would get out of the European social chapter, from which Labour has negotiated a so-called opt-out.
Mr Cameron wants business to be responsible in the treatment of employees, and how they market to children, and to be supportive of families. He says that would facilitate a low-tax regime.
The Tory leader moves on to education and how we are "falling down the European leagues".
2.35pm
Mr Cameron says he wants all three of his children to go through the state sector. But he wants them to go to schools where they use tried and tested teaching methods and treat children as individuals.
He also calls for a choice for parents, like himself, with disabled children.
Mr Cameron says we need to open up diversity and choice in the state education sector.
He praises the government's academy programme but says it should be made easier to create them.
The Tory leader says parents like him want action on standards now.
Mr Cameron claims Labour has never got to grips with the education system.
Mr Cameron wants business and universities to have a greater involvement in schools.
2.40pm
He says a teacher told him to focus on behaviour, behaviour and behaviour.
The Tory leader said he talked to a pupil and asked him: "What's the matter?"
The pupil apparently said: "I got pissed last night and am going to flunk my exam."
Brings back memories of William Hague's apparent drinking prowess in his youth.
Mr Cameron wants to make it easier for schools to exclude unruly pupils.
The Tory leader is now talking about the aspiration of getting on the housing ladder. He refers to George Osborne's pledge to abolish stamp duty on properties costing up to £250,000.
Moving on to the elderly, he attacks Gordon Brown for "destroying" the pension system.
He is talking about one of his constituents who lost his pension after the business for which he was working went bust.
He was apparently offered money after the Tory leader spoke up for him in parliament but refused to take it unless others got a similar deal.
Mr Cameron describes him as a hero and announces plans for a lifeboat fund for the 125,000 people who have found themselves in a similar position.
2.45pm
Mr Cameron is on to stronger families and a responsible society and again says the old society is failing.
He says one of Labour's greatest failures is in tackling poverty.
By the way, maybe the tie is blue, rather than green. Or maybe turquoise.
The Tory leader says there are 600,000 more people in poverty than 10 years ago. Mr Cameron believes it's because Labour have relied on state institutions and focused on short-term solutions.
"The picture isn't good. The old politics has been failing. Labour's great passion was tackling poverty but in many ways it's been their greatest failure."
He will take welfare away from people who are offered suitable work and refused to take it.
Mr Cameron says more is needed to support the family. He insists single mothers do a brilliant job but says: "I don't think we can ignore the state of family breakdown in Britain and I think we have to try and do something about it."
He claims there are two million people who pretend to live apart rather than together because they get better benefits.
He says people are penalised for cohabitation. Mr Cameron says people should not be penalised by the benefits system and the tax system should recognise marriage as well.
"We must be crazy in this country to be using the benefit system to drive people apart rather than bring them together."
The Tory leader says at the next election (doesn't say when he thinks that will be) the Conservatives will be the party of the family.
2.55pm
We're on to the NHS. He talks about the care given his disabled son. Mr Cameron says morale is low in the NHS, as is productivity. He claims Labour is failing because reform has been top-down.
"They talk about a personalised NHS but they have done nothing to deliver it. We have got to scrap these top-down targets and trust our professionals in the NHS."
Mr Cameron recalls marching with junior doctors who felt they were getting a raw deal.
He says the Tories would scrap top-down targets and give responsibility to people working in the NHS. He wants the focus on outcomes and the NHS answerable to the patient and not politicians.
He says a personalised NHS would give people a choice of GPs (I think you can do that at them moment) but also give the GPs choice in which hospitals to refer patients to.
Mr Cameron says he will fight attempts to close district general hospitals.
Now we're on to immigration.
Mr Cameron praises the contribution of immigrants but says we must recognise the pressure on public services it brings.
"I think this country has benefited immeasurably from immigration, people who want to come to this country and work hard.
"But we do have to recognise the pressures that can be put on public services, the schools, hospitals and housing if immigration is unlimited.
"We do need to say that new EU countries should have transitional controls and, yes, there should be an overall limit on economic migration from non-European countries."
He says it should be talked about in a humane way. He accuses Labour of handling the issue in an inflammatory way - who says it's hard to tell the parties apart these days?
3pm
We're on to global threats and Mr Cameron mentions Iran, Iraq, Somalia.
Mr Cameron says that as many as 4,000 of our fellow citizens have been through terror training camps in Afghanistan and other places.
The Tory leader says we should not put party before country when discussing these issues. He's proud of the fact that the Tories backed the renewal of Trident.
He wants to see troops come home from Iraq but only if Basra is secure.
He poetically refers to a night spent "under canvas" in Camp Bastion in Afghanistan. He then pays tribute to British troops in Helmand Province.
Again, Mr Cameron refers to old politics failing. Now he accuses Labour of breaking the military covenant (which is basically to provide for and support troops).
Mr Cameron wants to introduce the US scheme where your leave starts when you set foot on home soil rather than when you leave camp in Afghanistan.
The Tory leader refers to Liam Fox's pledge to restore the three battalions cut by Labour.
Mr Cameron wants people to know his top priority overseas would be Afghanistan.
His concern is that the UK could win its military campaign but fail elsewhere.
You cannot drop a "fully formed democracy out of an aeroplane from 40,000ft", he says.
He says it would be difficult to solve the problems when corruption and drugs are rife (in Afghanistan, not the UK).
There's a reference to the dodgy (Iraq) dossier, to laughs from the audience.
3.10pm
Mr Cameron says that the government is trashing civil liberties such as jury trial but upholding the Human Rights Act.
He says the Tories would give Britain a proper border force, scrap ID cards, defend jury trials and replace the Human Rights Act.
The Tory leader is onto climate change. He lists a number of ways in which it affects Britain and says that he "doesn't care" that some people say it's not popular to talk about green issues.
Mr Cameron insists there's a clear and present danger to the UK.
He claims the Tories are the party of sensible green leadership.
The biggest threat facing Britain is crime, says Mr Cameron.
There's another reference to the old politics; that's definitely one of his key phrases to hammer home today.
He says he went out on the beat with the police the other day and the officer told him that a mother had complained her son was stealing cash from her.
Apparently the officer told Mr Cameron that bureaucracy prevented him doing anything.
3.15pm
The Tory leader wants beat-based zero-tolerance policing in the community.
Mr Cameron talks about national service but he's not advocating the return of it (I was just about to reach for my passport).
But he wants' citizens' service and refers to when he met Amir Khan, the boxer, at his gym to talk about that policy recently. He pays tribute to Khan's attempts to help his community.
The Tory leader is summing up now. He says people want to know whether he is "up for it". He says "yes" he is up for it.
Those people who are members of "David Cameron is a hottie" will be pleased.
He says he makes no apology for his wealthy background (the "warmth" not the wealth was key, he says), and says he makes no apologies for his great education (at Eton); knowing what a great education is means he can deliver it to other people in the country, he says.
Mr Cameron talks about his mother, who was a magistrate "who did it because she believed in public service".
3.20pm
The Tory leader is saying we can get a great NHS, schools and safer streets if we really want it... which presumably means voting Conservative.
And now he addresses Mr Brown: "Why don't you go ahead and call that election?"
That's fighting talk from Mr Cameron.
He says: "We will fight, Britain will win."
And that's the final bell. Mr Cameron goes back to the blue corner.
The crowd give him a standing ovation.
3.25pm
And he's leaving the canvas, I mean arena, to You Can Get It If You Really Want and the Tories are clapping along to the reggae anthem, and they seem to be keeping time!
Thank you very much for joining me and for all your comments. Keep them coming and stay on the Guardian website for analysis of Mr Cameron's speech.
