David Cameron will enter the biggest negotiation of his prime ministership in Brussels with his campaign to rewrite the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU.
Over dinner at an EU summit on Thursday, the prime minister is to press his case for the first time to the heads of government of the other 27 countries. They all, to a greater or lesser degree, reject Cameron’s push to curb in-work benefits for four years for non-British EU citizens working in the UK.
The government insists it is not dropping the demand, although it also says it is open to alternative ways of reducing EU immigration in Britain.
A senior EU official, familiar with the British position, said it is an important moment, and described the negotiation as intractable, adding, “I can’t say we’re on the verge of a solution”.
The summit may turn into a showdown, with Cameron said to be determined to make a robust and detailed case as to why he needs concessions from the rest of the EU in order to win the in/out referendum, perhaps by the summer. But while the issue of discriminatory welfare curbs is his biggest problem, none of Cameron’s other demands have been resolved.
“There are no easy requests. All of them are difficult,” said a second senior official involved in the negotiations. “There is no agreement on any of the issues in negotiation. Until everything has been agreed, nothing is agreed.”
Although none of the other countries want Britain to leave the EU, Cameron has no allies in his attempt to deny EU citizens working in the UK tax credits or other benefits for four years, which are seen as discriminatory and flouting EU law. The second official said: “They have no idea how to move forward.”
Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, chairing the summit and charged with crafting a settlement of the British issue, singled out the welfare curbs as the biggest problem. Almost three weeks ago, Cameron delivered an ultimatum to Tusk, insisting on the benefits curbs and presenting a confidential text on how it could be achieved legally. The PM urged a quick fix by Thursday’s summit.
The gambit backfired, angering other leaders and stiffening resistance. The Germans found Cameron’s manoeuvre “dangerous” and are reliably said to have been shocked by the PM’s resort to no-compromise, all-or-nothing tactics. They were also dismayed by the British tabling “harsh alternatives”, meaning threats that the UK could quit the EU if Cameron was turned down.
Since then, Cameron has climbed down after at least two conversations with Angela Merkel.
“In London they know our position very well,” said a senior German official. “We will be as helpful as far as we can go. But there are certain things that are too much. There is no doubt that we want to keep the UK in, but we also have to match up with our friends in France.”
On Wednesday, Berlin sounded more conciliatory, stressing that it wanted to be helpful, was determined to keep Britain in the EU, and that it would do its utmost to enable Cameron to win the referendum. The British have highlighted four areas where they want to see change in the EU and to the UK’s terms of membership.
The government is urging a greater emphasis on competitiveness, free trade, less regulation and enhancement of the EU’s single market. This is the least contested area. The British also want a greater say for national parliaments over EU legislation and to be exempted from the EU’s treaty-enshrined aim of ever-closer union. This is also viewed as feasible although it would require an amendment of the EU treaties.
In addition to the welfare curbs, where there is no sign of agreement at all, the other tricky area concerns the relationship between the 19 countries of the eurozone and those using their own currencies, such as Britain. London is demanding cast-iron guarantees under a new legal regime that the eurozone cannot outvote Britain when the government deems UK financial stability and interests to be affected.
Three of the four policy areas where Britain is demanding adjustments require treaty change in order to happen. There will not be such changes in the foreseeable future so Britain insists on legally watertight promises that these changes will be irreversible and eventually codified in the Lisbon treaty. Other countries say this is not possible because it would tie the hands of future governments and parliaments.
Tusk has called for a “no taboos” debate on Thursday evening, a request directed as much at the other European leaders as at Cameron, suggesting the negotiation could be heated. No one expects a sudden breakthrough. But the priority for Tusk and for Merkel is to avoid a breakdown.
