David Cameron will face a political problem inside his own party if he does not guarantee defence spending will be set at 2% of GDP, while continuing to ringfence overseas aid, the former defence secretary has warned.
With public finances tight, and so much spending already ringfenced, Cameron is reluctant to give a cast-iron commitment about future defence spending for the rest of the next parliament, but Liam Fox, a leading rightwinger, said he will be demanding a clear manifesto commitment.
Speaking to BBC1’s Sunday Politics he said the Conservatives would find it very difficult to swallow a guaranteed proportion of spending on aid, but not on defence.He argued that the government’s international reputation would take a knock unless it made the guarantee, adding that any gaps in the defence budget were a security risk at a dangerous time internationally.
He was joined by Sir Peter Wall, the former head of the army, who urged all parties to make the same commitment, adding too many politicians wanted to avoid this conversation until after the election. Wall retired last summer.
Fox also warned that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is “one miscalculation away” from bringing conflict to the European continent by doing something that requires Nato to act under article 5 of its constitution – a clause that requires fellow Nato states to go to the defence of another, if under assault from an external aggressor.
Fox said the British government had a moral duty to arm the Ukrainian regime. The Ukrainians have put in a detailed request for arms to the UK, including anti-tank equipment but Cameron appears to be waiting for a decision from the US before taking what would be seen as a provocative step by Russia. Britain is so far providing only non-lethal equipment.
He said any decision to hold off arming the Ukrainians for fear of angering Putin was “in fact a bully’s charter. That’s what happened in the 1930s”. Discussing a 2% of GDP guarantee Fox said said: “I think this would be a political problem inside the Conservative party because I think people feel that the government’s first duty is the protection of the United Kingdom and its citizens.
“We have to do what we need to make that happen and I think that we have a commitment to Nato as part of our international treaty obligations to spend that 2%. I think to say that we were willing to guarantee a proportion of GDP for international aid but not willing to implement our commitments in terms of defence, I think a lot of Conservatives would find that very difficult to swallow – especially at a time when you can see that the international security environment is deteriorating.”
He argued the government already had a £1bn shortfall from commitments that were made back in 2010.
