Everyone’s looking for a comparison, a parallel, some glint of good reflection to say who Tua Tagovailoa could become if this all works out for him and the Miami Dolphins.
Drew Brees is the standard. Same 6-foot-1 (on tip toes) height as Tua. Same average arm. Same lack of foot speed. Now Brees is retired and on his way to the Hall of Fame.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen is mentioned. Sort of. Allen’s 6-5 frame, cannon arm and running skills are physical traits Tua doesn’t have. But Allen struggled as a rookie, got a better team around him and now he’s a star. So there’s that.
Of all the comparisons for hope, this one strikes the proper tone: the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs offense. The full concept. It’s is a bit hard to take at first glance considering (gulp) Patrick Mahomes played quarterback. But stay with those hoping to connect the dots.
“If you go and rewatch that season, there’s a lot of big plays in there — a ton of yards-after-catch,’’ ESPN quarterback expert Dan Orlovsky was saying the other day. “It’s all Patrick catch [the shotgun snap from center] and throw, catch and throw, catch and throw
“I believe that’s something Tua excels at. Catch and throw. It’s understanding what’s before the snap and eliminating options. If we get to the line of scrimmage — if [Will] Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, [DeVante] Parker and Hunter Long and Mike Gesicki are out there — these guys are options. Tua’s going to have the ability to cross three of them off before the ball even gets snapped. Then he’s playing super-fast.”
He’s looked that way at his best in preseason.
“He was like [NBA guard] Chris Paul running the pick-and-roll or Steve Nash running the pick-and-roll. Very much in the control aspect, delivering the right ball at the right time to the right guy. Getting to the right spot. That’s what Patrick did in 2018.”
Again, it all breaks down some with that last line. Mahomes, after all, threw for 50 touchdowns that year. But, come on, no one was saying he’ll be Brees for a career or Mahomes for a season.
It’s about concepts. And the concept of what this offense will look like around Tua had to be the front-line battleground inside Dolphins meetings this offseason.
This led into the departure of Chan Gailey and the arrival of a two-coordinator offense shrouded in such mystery coach Brian Flores won’t say who calls the plays.
The Gailey-must-go crowd was a bit much. His offense scored the most points for this franchise since 1985. That covers nearly 15 years of Dan Marino. Not bad, huh?
But points weren’t the point. Tua was. And there was the odd metric in Gailey’s offense. Tua was much better with the “12” personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) than the “11” personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers).
A small thing, you might say. The numbers said something else. All the analytics people crunched them, too. For instance, Warren Sharp, who consults with a few pro teams, showed Tua had a 49% success rate and threw for 6.3 yards per attempt out of “11” personnel.
Out of “12” personnel, he had a 62% success rate and 7.9 yards per attempt.
To put that in better perspective, Tua’s 7.9 yards per attempt out of “12” personnel would have tied him fifth in the league with Allen. The 6.3 yards per attempt in “11” personnel would tie for 29th with Pittsburgh’s Ben Rothlisberger.
That gets us to this preseason and new offense. Tua ran 14 preseason plays out of the “11” personnel — his weaker formation last year. He ran only five out of the “12” personnel.
So the Dolphins weren’t showing anything. Or working on a weakness. Or maybe just have better receivers (they do — but they weren’t available in preseason). Or, come on, it’s preseason.
Here’s the point: The concepts behind Tua’s offense might matter as much as he does. The rookie Waddle isn’t Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill. Gesicki isn’t tight end Travis Kelce. And Tua certainly isn’t Mahomes. But some ideas are the same.
“The more concepts that allow him to get to the line of scrimmage and erase options, the faster he can play,’’ Orlovsky said.
Everyone thinks their young quarterback is great this time of year. Mac Jones in New England. Justin Fields in Chicago. Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. Tua with the Dolphins.
Are they all great? History says no. But you see why they might be — what they are on their best days. The 2018 Chiefs? The names don’t fit starting with Tua. But the concept does.
