VOTERS across the state seat of Upper Hunter are set to head to the polls in May for a byelection after a sex scandal led to MP Michael Johnsen's resignation.
The Nationals MP, who had moved to the crossbench, quit this week in the wake of allegations he offered a prostitute $1000 to come to parliament house for sex. Mr Johnsen is also alleged to have exchanged a series of lewd text messages with the same woman while sitting in the parliamentary chamber, and sent her a sexually explicit video.
Police are investigating allegations he raped a sex worker in 2019 in the Blue Mountains. He has vehemently denied the allegations, which he described as "unfounded".
Legislative Assembly Speaker Jonathan O'Dea announced this week the state byelection to choose his successor would be held on May 22. The National Party has held the marginal seat since the 1930s, but NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian on Thursday said she expected the Coalition to lose it.
The seat stretches to Quirindi in the north, covering Willow Tree, Murrurundi, Merriwa and down to Singleton in the south, and Gloucester in the east.
Both the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party and One Nation are expected to enter the fray in what could prove a crucial seat given it will push the Berejiklian government into minority, forcing the Coalition to gain support of independents including Lake Macquarie's Greg Piper to push through its agenda.
The Shooters polled more than 20 per cent in 2019's poll while One Nation pushed Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon in an unexpectedly tight contest for the federal seat. Melanie Dagg, who drew 28.6 per cent of first preferences against Mr Johnsen for Labor, resigned as a Cessnock councillor last week.
On Thursday both Ms Berejiklian and Labor leader Jodi McKay made the case that they were underdogs in the poll.
"If you look at the history of by-elections in NSW, there has been at least a double-digit swing against governments and certainly it would take more than a miracle for us to keep the seat," the premier said on Thursday.
"Of course we will try."
Labor's Jodi McKay hit back hours later, saying the premier's admission was "quite extraordinary" given the Nationals had held the seat since 1932. Labor has never held it.
"I actually think it will take a miracle for the National Party to lose this seat," the opposition leader said.
"It's going to be incredibly hard for us to win."
One Nation's Mark Latham told Sydney media he would not contest the seat, but that the party would find a candidate internally. He pointed to Malcolm Turnbull's comments as inaugural chair of the NSW Net-Zero Emissions and Clean Economy Board as a potential issue in the poll. "Malcolm Turnbull's comments were, essentially, that we should shut down the coal industry and instead everyone in the Upper Hunter should grow grapes or breed horses," Mr Latham said. "For a region very heavily reliant on the coal industry, Malcolm Turnbull's appointment and comments were arrogant and shockingly elitist."
