In India, the growth of COVID-19 cases has neither been exponential nor has it flattened out. The curve lies somewhere in the middle. But this picture is misleading as India has a poor testing rate.
Despite the fact that India has among the lowest % of positive cases of those tested, the 21-day lockdown, which began on March 25, may not be enough. This is borne out in countries which imposed lockdowns but saw a surge in cases later.
The three curves
The graph shows the day-wise progression of COVID-19 cases since the 100th case in each country. Some countries such as Singapore, Japan and South Korea have managed to flatten the curve.
Many such as the U.S., the U.K., Spain and Italy are seeing an exponential rise in cases.
The rest such as India, Indonesia, Peru, Iceland, Finland and Saudi Arabia are middling.
Types of case progression
A unique position
When a sample of countries experiencing the three types of progression (exponential, middling and flattening) are compared for tests done per million population and % of positive cases among those tested, India is in a unique position.
Also read: Data | Where does India stand on the coronavirus curve?
India has conducted a limited number of tests and at the same time, it also has a very low % of positive cases among those tested.
Tests per million x positive samples
Is a lockdown enough?
Countries such as South Korea chose not to impose a lockdown but instead reduce the spread by ramping up testing rates early. Others who did not increase their testing rates early chose to impose a lockdown in order to contain the spread.
While Belgium, like India, imposed a lockdown early, the infections continued to increase as testing rates increased.
Impact of a lockdown
Italy imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 10, while France brought forth the same on March 16. Belgium's lockdown began on March 17, and similar restrictions in U.K. came into effect on March 24.
