The Cleveland Browns want to be a run-first team with an explosive passing game. So far under Kevin Stefanski, that recipe has been successful. The run game has been the foundation of a quality offense that made the playoffs in 2020 and scored 60 points in the first two games of the 2021 season.
The current iteration of the Browns leadership has been closely connected with data and analytics starting with chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta. General manager Andrew Berry and Stefanski also come from a strong data background.
Following the departure of Sashi Brown, fans and media tended toward deriding “analytics” as not something that could be successful in the NFL.
Now, following the successful 2020 season and an aggressive 2021 offseason, information in data form is becoming more accepted and appreciated. Winning overcomes a lot of things including preconceived notions.
Data helps the understanding of the game for both teams and fans. It can contradict assumptions or prove them.
Today’s data point seems to prove what most have understood: It is vital to be able to run the ball in the redzone. Looking at redzone success over the past 15 seasons showed that passing rate didn’t correlate into redzone scoring:
Was talking to @tejfbanalytics about how the Bucs were passing more in the redzone this year to get Brady the single season passing TD record. I took a second to see if there was reason to believe they did it because redzone passing was particularly efficient. Turns out it's not! pic.twitter.com/AtqM0iSWWS
— Conor "TLaw Good" McAnalytics (@ConorMcQ5) September 23, 2021
A few teams stand out but seeing the Browns of the last 15 years near the top of points per redzone trip is shocking, at first. Remembering how rare it has been for the team to make it to the redzone when a game is competitive helps understand how they were successful at a high percentage of the few times they made it there.
The inability to run the ball could be problematic for teams within scoring position unless they have an explosive passing attack.
Stefanski and Cleveland seem to have the right formula for long-term success in the redzone, if early results tell us anything.
