Manchester City will begin their 2020/21 UEFA Champions League campaign on Wednesday night against Porto.
Pep Guardiola will once again have his eyes on the prize as City bid to make it past the quarter-final stage for the first time under his stewardship.
First, the club must navigate their way through Group C, where they will face Porto, Olympiakos and Marseille in a group they are expected to win.
Data experts FiveThirtyEight have released their predictions for the match and the Champions League as a whole ahead of matchday one.
FiveThirtyEight can predict the outcome for a season using SPI ratings, which the website states are their best estimate of a team's overall strength.
Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the number of goals it would concede.
Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Ratings are then compared to an opponent's to simulate the outcome of a match.
From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season. You can read more on how these numbers are calculated here.
With that in mind, City have been given a 69% chance of claiming all three points in their Champions League opener.
The draw is at 12%, while the number crunchers have given Porto only a 19% chance of walking away with a shock win.
As far as City's progression in the competition goes, City have been given a 76% chance of topping Group C, which is higher than any other team in the entire tournament.
As a result, it's 93% likely in 538's eyes they will make the knockout stages and then a 66% chance they will reach the quarter-finals, with only Bayern Munich (70%) fancied more to reach the final eight.
As far as the semi-finals go, again City are second only in the percentages to Bayern. City are 42% likely to reach the last four and then 25% to make the final itself.
Overall, it gives them a 14% chance of lifting the trophy come May, putting City in as second-favourites, behind Bayern Munich but ahead of Paris Saint-Germain.
