Those who live and work on the UK’s coastlines have always had to accept the threat of storms, flooding and erosion. But the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has pushed the urgent need to predict and plan for what happens on and around our coastlines up the agenda.
Events such as the storms of 2013 and 2014, which destroyed infrastructure including the main rail line at Dawlish in Devon, show how important it is to safeguard our coastal communities now, and understand the threats they face in the future, says Prof Paul Russell of the University of Plymouth’s Coastal Processes Research Group (CPRG).
“Lots of people want to live in coastal zones and build infrastructure. But at the same time, we have rising sea levels and increasing storminess. The sea wants to claim more of this land, but humans want to inhabit the land on the coast and hold it firm. It’s a worldwide conflict.”
The CPRG, led by Prof Gerd Masselink, is one of the world’s largest and most well-regarded groups specialising in coastal research. With direct access to some of the most dramatic stretches of coast in western Europe, its focus is on finding real-world solutions to the problems faced by coastlines. In practice, this usually means a lot of “extreme research”, as Russell puts it – going out and gathering data using the most up-to-date equipment, often in the teeth of a storm.
In the past, not much was known about how coasts behave – how sand and sediment move around, for example, and how currents affect that. But more sophisticated data-gathering equipment, from drones to sensors and webcams, is now enabling coastal scientists to gather far more information.
Over the long term, these records reveal a lot about how the coast behaves during increased storm events, says Dr Tim Scott, lecturer in ocean exploration and part of Coastal Marine Applied Research, a research-informed consultancy group based at the university that focuses on coastal processes and marine physics.
“It’s not dissimilar to climate change research, where the longer the datasets get, the more we can understand about the long-term trends that are happening,” he says. “These datasets also help us understand how we can then look into the future and develop models based on what we know of the past 20 to 30 years of behaviour on our coastline.”
He, along with others in the Plymouth team, is currently working on the BLUEcoast project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), which aims to improve our understanding of the forces that control the dynamics of our coastal system.
This data feeds into projects that will enable local people to better manage the impact on their lives and businesses when extreme weather events hit. Christopher Stokes, who leads the CMAR group, is now in the second year of a five-year project, also funded by NERC, to develop a coastal flood warning system for south-west England. Although the existing system can predict high water levels very well, it can’t predict how far waves will run up a beach, and how much water might flood over the top of it – which can be very bad for businesses on the seafront.
“Last year, for example, a lot of shops and cafes along the beachfront at St Ives were flooded during Storm Eleanor,” he explains. “Our model will be able to predict when this might happen again, enabling the Environment Agency to put out a warning so that shops and businesses are well prepared and have provisions in place.”
This work can potentially save lives too. The Royal National Lifeboat Institute (RNLI) asked the CPRG to analyse their rescue statistics and look for patterns. They quickly realised that nearly all rescues were in rip currents and that these rips followed a pattern – certain times of day, certain wave conditions, certain sorts of beaches. That data enabled them to come up with a prediction of when and where rip currents would be over the next few days.
“These forecasts go to the RNLI’s lifeguard managers, who can then allocate resources according to our predictions,” says Masselink. “If the next weekend is going to be particularly risky, managers can put extra staff on, or they can move staff from a less risky beach to riskier ones. It’s a direct application of science to help manage beaches, and ultimately save lives.”
The weather may remain unpredictable, but one thing is certain: whatever it does, the University of Plymouth’s coastal experts will be there to record it and use that information in the real world. It’s vital work that makes a huge difference to those who live, work along and visit the coast.
“The coast is not a fixed, static boundary,” says Scott. “It’s very dynamic, with or without climate change. But there is a scenario in which sea levels are rising and the coast is eroding. We have to acknowledge that, and we have to work out ways to adapt.”
