After peaking in mid-September 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases in India has been consistently declining. However, in the past week, some States have reversed this trend. In Maharashtra and Punjab, new cases have surged. Alarmingly, cases increased in February 2021 amid reduced testing in both these States. This is of concern because the rise in cases cannot be attributed to increased testing. Going forward, tests should be ramped up in these States to identify more positives in a shorter duration to mitigate the disease spread.
Cases increase
Daily cases in Maharashtra (MH) and Punjab (PB) have recorded a sharp increase in February. On Feb. 19, the number of daily cases in Maharasthra crossed the 6,000-mark for the first time in nearly three months. On the same day, the number of daily cases in Punjab crossed the 350-mark for the first time in nearly two months.
Punjab and Maharashtra COVID-19 rise Feb 2021 - Chart 1
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Tests decrease
More worryingly, the rise of daily cases in these two States cannot be attributed to increased testing levels. On the contrary, the average number of tests conducted in February reduced compared to January in both States. However, after the alarming rise in cases, both States have increased testing levels in the last few days.
Punjab and Maharashtra COVID-19 rise Feb 2021 - Chart 2
Also read: Data | Tamil Nadu and Punjab falling behind other States in COVID-19 vaccination drive
Positives per 100 tests
The chart depicts the number of positive cases identified per 100 tests (TPR). On February 20, 1.7 positive cases were identified in Punjab per 100 tests — the State’s highest this year. On the same day, 8.9 positive cases were identified in Maharashtra per 100 tests — again, the State’s highest this year.
Punjab and Maharashtra COVID-19 rise Feb 2021 - Chart 3
Tests per positive case
The chart depicts the number of tests conducted to find a positive case (TPC). On February 20, 61.8 tests and 11.3 tests were conducted in Punjab and Maharashtra respectively to identify one positive case — the lowest for both States this year.
Punjab and Maharashtra COVID-19 rise Feb 2021 - Chart 4
Source: www.covid19india.org
Data are as of February 20
Also read: Data | COVID-19 cases in Israel decline rapidly among elders vaccinated first
