Speculation has increased in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison will hand the trade portfolio to the education minister, Dan Tehan, when the prime minister reshuffles his frontbench either late this week or at the weekend.
While government insiders insist the prime minister’s looming frontbench overhaul will be modest, the prime minister needs to appoint a new trade minister. That’s because the South Australian Liberal senator Simon Birmingham has been promoted to finance, replacing the departing Mathias Cormann, who is on the campaign trail to run the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
While the Nationals’ frontbencher David Littleproud has made a public overture for the trade portfolio to return to the junior Coalition partner in the reshuffle, colleagues regard that push as connected to ongoing, unresolved, leadership jockeying within the Nationals rather than a serious pitch.
There was speculation at the beginning of the month that trade could go to either Tehan or to the employment minister and Western Australian Liberal, Michaelia Cash, but people now think Tehan is in the box seat, and Cash could pick up education.
Tehan, a Victorian Liberal from a regional seat, is a former diplomat who worked as a policy adviser to Mark Vaile, the former Nationals leader, when he held the trade portfolio in the early 2000s.
When Morrison flagged the reshuffle, there was speculation that Peter Dutton would shift to the defence portfolio – but sources are now playing down the prospects of any movement in the foreign affairs, defence or home affairs portfolios.
Dutton last week told reporters it was unlikely Morrison would move him. “I think I’m likely to stay in home affairs and that ultimately is a decision for the prime minister,” he said.
Morrison is expected to replace David Coleman, who holds the immigration portfolio. Coleman has been on personal leave for 12 months and it is anticipated that his replacement will come from the outer ministry.
A handover in trade comes at a sensitive time given the significant fracture in the relationship between China and Australia, which intensified on Tuesday, with Morrison accusing Beijing of breaching international trade rules and its free trade agreement with Australia through its reported ban on Australian coal imports.
Asked in Tasmania whether he had fumbled with the relationship with Australia’s largest trading partner, Morrison said the government had defended the nation’s “sovereign interests”.
“We decide who invests in Australia,” he said. “We have a free liberal, open democracy where members of parliament can speak their mind and you as a journalist can report in a free press.
“I don’t think these are things that we should be changing. I don’t think these are things that we should be bargaining.”
The Liberal leader said the government had safeguarded Australia’s national security, critical infrastructure and communications systems, and had sought to understand the origins of Covid-19 “with organisations like the World Health Organization”.
“I mean, these are practical, real things that any Australian government you would hope would do,” Morrison said. “So those who might make those accusations might want to nominate to me, which one of Australia’s national sovereign interests are they thinking the government should have traded away?”
The Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, has also flagged a potential reshuffle before Christmas depending on the composition of the government’s frontbench after Morrison’s changes. Albanese, who is battling instability in the opposition ranks, is unlikely to embark on wholesale changes.
