I love these smaller slate game dates, so I decided to deliver a holiday present to all of my followers and readers. This weekend, you get two chances to line your holiday stocking with some greenbacks. So, get cracking on those lineups.
Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Let us start with the most exciting game (from a fantasy perspective) on the docket. These two teams have the most electric offenses among the six teams playing today, so prepare to roster several players in this game.
The Bucs’ Jameis Winston is battling a thumb injury, but you wouldn’t have known it by watching the last two weeks. Winston is what he is, he will throw for more than 300 yards and 3 scores. He will also throw three interceptions. This sets him up as QB2 on the slate. Those numbers might take a slight dip with both of his Pro Bowl caliber WRs out this week. That won’t stop him from whipping the ball around willy-nilly. This week, Breshad Perriman will need another huge outing and Justin Watson will need to step up too. I love both of them and believe you need at least one of them in your lineup to have a chance. Either, Ronald Jones or Peyton Barber could be a stud this week. That is, only if the other wasn’t on the active roster. Since both will be active, they will eat into each other’s numbers. I prefer Jones, but neither is better than a FLEX here. Jameis has promised to target both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate frequently this week. Howard out-targeted Brate last week, but both are playable here. They have to be considered TE3 and TE4 respectively. I could easily see using one of them at FLEX in a Double-TE lineup. Ignore the Bucs’ defense.
Deshaun Watson is my QB1 on this slate. Tampa Bay has no chance of slowing down this offense (especially if Will Fuller is 100% this week). Of course, this means DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills are all elite plays. Hopkins is WR1 on the slate, and the other two are WR2/WR3 options. Carlos Hyde has a rough matchup, but he might be worth a pivot at FLEX. That said, I’d prefer to use Duke Johnson if I targeted a Houston RB this week. This is a great matchup for TEs, but Darren Fells has disappeared recently and is TD-dependent. Jordan Akins is also salary-relief at best. I’ll likely fade both of them. Houston’s defense could be a sneaky play despite the high scoring likelihood since Winston will make some mistakes.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots:
The Patriots typically have had Buffalo’s number. That said, Tom Brady may have his own issues with a seriously hardcore Bills’ defense. I really don’t see any way that I can rank Brady as better than QB4 on this slate (and that is giving him a boost because he is the GOAT). Sony Michel has the tools to move the ball against this defense, but his usage is frustrating. You have to consider him as a possible FLEX, but no more. James White is the best play for this offense. With Julian Edelman battling a ton of injuries (and possibly Tre’Davious White), expect Brady to target White double-digit times. With shady matchups elsewhere, White is no worse than RB2 on this slate. I also might consider vulture Rex Burkhead as a FLEX play. As I just mentioned, ignore the usual stud performer Edelman, but consider Mohamed Sanu as a WR3. Someone has to catch passes from Brady, and Sanu was the guy who got the bump in targets last week. Nkeal Harry, Phillip Dorsett and Jakobi Meyers are WR3/FLEX plays at best, but choosing which one to trust is asinine. The best TE on the Patriots is Rob Gronkowski, and he is retired. That should tell you all you need to know about Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse. Starting the Patriots’ defense is never a bad idea.
Josh Allen has a rough matchup, but he has a big arm and a speedy weapon in John Brown. The deep pass has been the best weapon against the Patriots in the last few weeks, so Allen has slight appeal, just not a lot. He also can do some damage with his legs, so a single GPP stack with him and Brown (and/or Cole Beasley) is worth the risk. As I mention, Brown is in play at WR3 despite the likely Stephon Gilmore coverage. Beasley is probably the safer play, and he can be rolled out at WR3 as more of a PPR play than a shot in the dark like Brown. You can beat the Patriots on the ground, so Devin Singletary is in play at RB2. Don’t stretch for Frank Gore though. Dawson Knox isn’t a strong play this week with so many great TE options. There is too much Foxboro magic to over-employ the Buffalo defense here, but give them a little run.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers:
This matchup has some potential for points but also has the potential to be a defensive snoozer. San Francisco has been “touchable” lately, but they aren’t being ravaged. Jared Goff could rise to QB3 on this slate. This is by no means a positive indictment of him, but a positive indictment of all the other defenses on this slate. Todd Gurley has re-emerged as a fantasy force, and San Fran can be beaten by receiving backs. With a lack of big-time RB talent to choose from on this slate, Gurley is certainly in RB1/2 consideration. I wouldn’t risk Malcolm Brown though in limited usage. Cooper Kupp has been adequate recently despite getting sporadic snap counts. I like him as a WR pivot, but you cannot trust him at his price as a regular option. Robert Woods has been the golden goose for this team recently. In the last two weeks, San Francisco has been torched by WR1s. This means that Woods should be a lock at WR1 or WR2 for you. Is Brandin Cooks still alive? I seriously don’t know. Josh Reynolds is a sneaky WR3 punt play if you need to save money. Tyler Higbee and George Kittle are options 1A and 1B at TE. I’m likely to use both in a Double-TE configuration. The Rams’ defense is good, and their price is super low. That is a combination that I adore.
Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid QB, but the Rams’ pass defense is elite. He will battle Brady for QB4 on the docket. You can pair him with Deebo Samuel or George Kittle, but Emmanuel Sanders did jack squat last week, and this week he faces Jalen Ramsey. Yuck! The Rams’ run defense is suspect. Raheem Mostert is a great RB1/RB2 option, but his split usage hurts him. Tevin Coleman is TD dependent at best and Matt Breida is reception-dependent. Neither is better than a deep FLEX play. If Breida misses the game due to one of his 573 injuries, bump Mostert up slightly. As I said above, ignore Sanders. Deebo Samuel could be an option at WR3, but don’t force him into your lineup. George Kittle was a target hog last week. Los Angeles is not very good at covering TEs, so he is basically a must start. At worst, toggle between him and Higbee. Jared Goff does have the turnover gene, so the Niners’ defense can be used here.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $7K for Deshaun Watson. $11.9K for James White and Raheem Mostert. $8.5K for DeAndre Hopkins. $6.2K for Robert Woods. $4.6K for Justin Watson. $9K for O.J. Howard and Tyler Higbee at TE and FLEX. $2.5K for the Rams’ defense.
At FD: $8.6K for Watson, $12.9K for White and Devin Singletary. $7.2K for Woods. $7.4K for Breshad Perriman. $6.1K for Will Fuller. $13.7K for George Kittle and Higbee at TE and FLEX. $3.5K for the Rams’ defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Watson, Jameis Winston at SF, White, Mostert, Fuller, Woods and TRIPLE-TE: Higbee, Kittle, Howard.
At Fanball (Classic): Watson, White, Mostert, Hopkins, Woods, Kittle, Cameron Brate, Duke Johnson, Rams’ Defense.
At Fantasy Draft: Watson, White, Gurley, Hopkins, Woods, Kittle, Mostert, Howard, Rams’ Defense.
Quarterback
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | $7,000 | $8,600 |
| Jameis Winston | $6,900 | $8,400 |
| Jared Goff | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,500 | $7,900 |
| Josh Allen | $5,300 | $7,600 |
| Tom Brady | $5,200 | $7,400 |
Weekly strategy – Don’t get too crazy, just use Jameis Winston or Deshaun Watson. If you have to be weird, use Tom Brady or Josh Allen. That said, don’t be surprised when that strategy fails.
Pay to Play:
Deshaun Watson, Texans @ TB ($7000 DK, $8600 FD)
Tampa’s pass defense is so bad that even David Blough threw for more than 250 yards against them. Deshaun Watson should be good for 300-2 through the air and at least one score on the ground.
Stay Away:
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers vs. LAR ($5500 DK, $7900 FD)
Facing an elite defense like the Rams is not the optimal time for using Jimmy Garoppolo. He is coming off of a so-so game where he only targeted George Kittle. If I was Los Angeles, I would have Jalen Ramsey shadow Kittle. That isn’t going to happen, but it is what I would do.
Value Play:
Josh Allen, Bills @ NEP ($5300 DK, $7600 FD)
I don’t love this play, but Josh Allen is always a danger on the ground, and New England has had some issues with rushing QBs this year. Plus, Allen has a deep arm and a speed weapon in John Brown. New England has been susceptible to the deep bomb the last couple of weeks.
Running Back
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley II | $6,300 | $7,400 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,100 | $7,100 |
| James White | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| Sony Michel | $4,600 | $6,100 |
| Ronald Jones II | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Peyton Barber | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| Matt Breida | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Tevin Coleman | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Rex Burkhead | $3,600 | $5,800 |
| Malcolm Brown | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| Frank Gore | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | $3,300 | $4,800 |
Weekly strategy – James White is the only must-start on the slate. RB2 is a choice between Todd Gurley, Devin Singletary and Raheem Mostert. I could see using two of them as well, with one at FLEX, assuming you don’t use Double-TE. Sony Michel, Duke Johnson and the Bucs’ backfield are the only other options slightly appealing.
Pay to Play:
James White, Patriots vs. BUF ($5800 DK, $6500 FD)
With Julian Edelman, hurt and covered by the dominant CBs of the Bills, James White will be the most frequent target of Tom Brady. Buffalo is beatable on the ground, and Bill Belichick only trusts White this time of year. So, expect him to get a solid share of the carries too.
Stay Away:
Carlos Hyde, Texans @ TB ($5000 DK, $6600 FD)
Based on volume alone, Carlos Hyde could have some value. That said, Tampa has given up some rushing TDs this year, but they have given up absurdly low rushing yardage per game. The only way Hyde hits 3x is with a pair of short TDs, and I think Deshaun will vulture those this week.
Value Play:
Duke Johnson, Texans @ TB ($4100 DK, $5400 FD)
Values are few and far between at the position this week. If you knew which TB running back would be the lead option, I’d recommend that. Tampa’s run defense is elite, but they have been beaten by pass-catching backs. Duke Johnson could play a sneaky role in what could be a pass-heavy game.
Wide Receiver
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,500 | $8,700 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,400 | $8,400 |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,600 | $7,300 |
| Julian Edelman | $6,400 | $7,500 |
| Robert Woods | $6,200 | $7,200 |
| Breshad Perriman | $6,000 | $7,400 |
| Will Fuller V | $5,900 | $6,100 |
| John Brown | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| Cole Beasley | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Justin Watson | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Brandin Cooks | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| N’Keal Harry | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $3,600 | $5,100 |
| Josh Reynolds | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,000 | $5,400 |
Weekly strategy – DeAndre Hopkins and Robert Woods are options 1A and 1B here. I’ll try my darndest to fit both of them in. If not, I might use Will Fuller or Kenny Stills as a different Texans’ option. Cooper Kupp is also a possible pivot from Woods. You need to roster one of the Buccaneers’ pair of Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson. Watson is a lot cheaper, so he is easier to roll out at WR3. Others to consider at WR3: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Mohamed Sanu and Deebo Samuel.
Pay to Play:
Robert Woods, Rams @ SF ($6200 DK, $7200 FD)
I wanted to list DeAndre Hopkins here, but I trust Houston’s other WRs more than I trust the other Rams’ WRs. San Francisco has been crushed by WR1s the last two weeks and Robert Woods has been the primary beneficiary of Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks going MIA recently.
Stay Away:
Julian Edelman, Patriots vs. BUF ($6400 DK, $7500 FD)
Julian Edelman is battered, bruised and broken. Plus, he may see shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White. The rest of the Buffalo secondary is also elite, so escaping White won’t guarantee success. At this price, just don’t do it.
Value Play:
Justin Watson, Buccaneers vs. HOU ($4600 DK, $5700 FD)
Justin Watson was a popular sleeper last week, but Breshad Perriman got all the love behind Chris Godwin, Godwin is also out this week, so Watson will have to step up opposite Perriman. Both are great plays in what should be a shootout, but only Watson could be considered a value based on their prices.
Tight End
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | $6,500 | $7,400 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,000 | $6,300 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,000 | $5,300 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Cameron Brate | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Darren Fells | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,900 | $4,900 |
| Dawson Knox | $2,700 | $4,800 |
| Ben Watson | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Tyler Kroft | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Matt LaCosse | $2,500 | $4,500 |
Weekly strategy – This is the slate for Double-TE or even Triple-TE. George Kittle and Tyler Higbee are elite plays and both Buccaneers’ tight ends are in play. Heck, even both Texans’ TEs could be used in a pinch.
Pay to Play:
George Kittle, Niners vs. LAR ($6500 DK, $7400 FD)
George Kittle was the only option that Jimmy Garoppolo looked at last week. 17 targets while the rest of the team saw 15 targets. That partly explains how he has accrued 70 yards and/or a score in seven of his last nine games. The Rams have been poor against TEs recently. The only thing that could hurt Kittle is if the Rams decide to shadow him with Jalen Ramsey.
Stay Away:
Gerald Everett, Rams @ SF ($4000 DK, $5300 FD)
There isn’t really a fair “Stay Away” candidate at a high price. Gerald Everett is unlikely to play due to injury, but if he does suit up, ignore him. Tyler Higbee has made him an expendable piece.
Value Play:
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers vs. HOU ($4000 DK, $5500 FD)
Both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate make great value options this week with all the injuries to the Buccaneers’ WR corps. In fact, Jameis Winston even came out and said that he would be peppering those two with targets. You want exposure to this game, so consider using Howard or Brate as part two of the Double-TE strategy or even as option three in the Triple-TE.
