NEW DELHI : The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded its alert for Cyclone Asani and said that the deep depression over the Andaman Sea will not intensify into a tropical storm.
By late Monday night, the system over the north Andaman Sea and the adjoining area was likely to have intensified further into aa cyclonic storm. It had moved northwards and was located at about 170km east-northeast of Mayabundar (Andaman Islands), 290 km north-northeast of Port Blair (Andaman Islands), 390 km southwest of Yango (Myanmar) and 500km south of Thandawe (Myanmar).
“Deep Depression over north Andaman Sea and adjoining areas lay centered at 1130 hours IST of 22nd March, about 240 km west-southwest of Yangon (Myanmar) and 300 km south-southwest of Thandwe (Myanmar). To cross Myanmar coast within next few hours as a Deep Depression," said a tweet from IMD’s official twitter account.
The Infrared imagery shows convection beginning to consolidate over the low-level circulation center (LLCC). However, landfall in Myanmar is imminent, so the window of opportunity for development is closing.
“It is a deep depression that has not intensified into a cyclone. As it is nearing the coast of north Myanmar, it is weakening. The vertical wind shear is also increasing. Earlier it was 10-15 knots, now it has increased to 25-30 knots. Moreover, the surface temperatures are also cooling down. They were in the range of 29-30 degrees, now they are in the range of 27-28 degrees. There are chances of tall winds and heavy rains. The winds will be 40-50 km/hr. The rainfall will be moderate-heavy," said Mahesh Palawat, Meteorologist, Skymet.
Analyses show a marginal environment for development characterized by warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures, and poleward outflow offset by low to moderate (10-20 knots) wind shear.
Forecast models generally agree that the depression will continue to track northward over Myanmar and dissipate. Of note, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) suggest that it may briefly cross back over the Bay of Bengal and undergo minor reorganization before moving back over land, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
IMD issued a warning for fishermen to not venture into Eastcentral Bay of Bengal, North Andaman Sea, and along & off Myanmar coast, and North Andaman Islands on Tuesday.
“The depression has crossed the Andaman Islands so light rainfall can be expected. No threats to the island should be expected," Palawat added.
The sea condition is expected to remain rough and tourist activities are suspended on the islands for now. The government set up control rooms in all three districts of the Union Territory last week and the locals living along the coasts were evacuated.
According to officials, over 150 NDRF personnel were on duty and six relief camps were set up in anticipation of the storm. Power disruption, flooding on roads and mudslides were also predicted by the IMD as the likely impact.
“Under the influence of a fresh Western Disturbance, isolated/scattered rainfall/snowfall with thunderstorm/lightning very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh during 23rd & 24th and over Uttarakhand on 24th March," said a tweet from IMD’s official twitter account.
According to IMD, abatement of ongoing heatwave conditions in most parts of the country is very likely during the next 4-5 days.
